Coffee prices are adjusting up in the markets, is robusta likely to recover this week?

In the first 8 months of 2023, coffee exports decreased by 5.4% in volume, but increased by 3.1% in value and 8.9% in price compared to the first 8 months of 2022, reaching over 1.2 million tons, equivalent to nearly 2.96 billion USD, with an average price of 2,463 USD/ton, according to the General Department of Customs.

World coffee prices have turned around and increased after many sessions of decline. However, the US dollar remains high, hindering the increase of commodity exchanges.

Arabica coffee prices are under pressure as Brazil’s agricultural benchmarking agency, Conab, revised its forecast for this year’s output up by 0.3 million bags from its last survey.

Robusta inventories certified and monitored by the London exchange as of September 22 increased by 4,160 tons, or 10.74% compared to a week earlier, to 42,890 tons (about 714,833 bags, 60 kg bags).

However, according to market experts this week, both New York and London exchanges sold off quite a lot in consecutive sessions last weekend, so the market's downward trend will not be strong. The two exchanges will adapt to the negative information of last week and then Robusta coffee will return to supply concerns from now until the end of the year and is likely to recover in the short term.

Giá cà phê hôm nay 8/11, (Nguồn: Shutterstock)

Domestic coffee prices today, September 27, increased by 200 - 300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Shutterstock)

At the end of the first trading session of the week (September 26), coffee prices on international exchanges turned to increase. Robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for November 2023 delivery increased by 13 USD, trading at 2,456 USD/ton. The January 2024 delivery increased by 8 USD, trading at 2,352 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange for December 2023 delivery increased by 2.05 cents, trading at 150.85 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2024 delivery price increased by 2 cents, trading at 151.9 cents/lb. Trading volume increased.

Domestic coffee prices today, September 27, increased by 200 - 300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.

Average price	Change
USD/VND exchange rate	24,170	+ 5
DAK LAK	66,500	+ 300
LAM DONG	65,900	+ 200
GIA LAI	663000	+ 300
DAK NONG	66,300	+ 300

Unit: VND/kg.

(Source: Giacaphe.com)

According to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs, in August 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports decreased by 22.3% in volume and 16% in value compared to July 2023, but the price increased by 8%, reaching 84,647 tons, equivalent to 258.47 million USD, with an average price of 3,053.6 USD/ton.

Overall, in the first 8 months of 2023, coffee exports to most markets increased in value compared to the first 8 months of 2022.

Vietnamese coffee was exported the most to the German market in the first 8 months of 2023, accounting for 12% of the total volume and 11% of the total coffee export turnover of the country, reaching 145,896 tons, equivalent to 323.52 million USD, priced at 2,217.5 USD/ton, down 9.2% in volume, down 5.3% in turnover but up 4.4% in price compared to the first 8 months of 2022; in August 2023 alone, exports reached 8,450 tons, equivalent to 22.91 million USD, up 5.3% in both volume and turnover compared to July 2023.

Coffee exports to the US market also increased by 11% in volume, 8.7% in turnover but decreased by 2.2% in price compared to the first 8 months of 2022, reaching 90,515 tons, equivalent to 213.75 million USD, with an average price of 2,361.5 USD/ton, accounting for over 7% of the total volume and total turnover.

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