Robusta coffee prices fall below $5,300/ton

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) said that the world raw material market continued to fluctuate in yesterday's trading session (May 7). At the end of the session, overwhelming selling pressure pushed the MXV-Index to 2,160 points, down 19 points compared to the previous session. Notably, in the energy market, the prices of two crude oil products turned down by more than 1.5%. Meanwhile, the coffee market was under selling pressure after the latest report from the Brazilian Crop Supply Agency (CONAB) was released.

Giá cà phê Robusta tiếp đà giảm về dưới mốc 5.300 USD/tấn

MXV-Index

Coffee prices under great pressure after CONAB report released

According to MXV, the prices of two coffee commodities have weakened simultaneously after the latest report of the Brazilian Crop Supply Agency (CONAB) was released.

Specifically, the price of Arabica coffee for July contract on the New York floor decreased by 1.47% to 8,467 USD/ton, while the price of Robusta coffee for July contract on the London floor continued to decrease by 0.32% to 5,239 USD/ton.

Industrial raw material price list

In its latest report, CONAB raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025-26 coffee production to 55.67 million tonnes, up 2.7% from last year and nearly 7.5% higher than its initial forecast in January. However, while arabica production is forecast to fall 6.6% to 36.98 million bags, robusta production is expected to increase by a sharp 27.9% to 18.7 million bags. CONAB said the upward adjustment is mainly due to stable and favorable climatic conditions that have supported coffee trees during a crucial stage of development.

Coffee prices weaken across the board after CONAB report released

The Robusta harvest in Brazil has already begun, while Arabica is still in the development stage and is expected to be harvested in the middle of the year. At the same time, certified washed Arabica coffee inventories on the New York floor continued to increase sharply, reaching nearly 844,475 60kg bags - the highest level since March, of which more than 92% are stored in Europe. Notably, Brazilian Arabica inventories account for more than 53% of the total registered volume, while Mexican Arabica accounts for about 8.5%.

In other notable developments in the raw material market, cotton prices ended the trading session on May 7 down slightly by 0.66% to $1,485/ton. On the supply side, recent rainfall in West Texas has been assessed as near ideal over the past two to three weeks, contributing to the stable crop outlook, unless there are unexpected changes in weather or market sentiment.

According to the USDA Crop Progress Report released on May 5, the US cotton planting progress reached 21% of the total area, up from 15% last week and slightly above the 5-year average of 20%. Meanwhile, the USDA's weekly report released on May 2 showed that US upland cotton net sales for the 2024–25 crop year reached 108,400 bales in the week ending April 24, up 4% from the previous week but still 21% below the recent 4-week average.

Crude oil prices return to decline

In yesterday's trading session, red almost covered the entire energy market when 4 out of 5 commodities decreased in price. After a recovery session, oil prices returned to the weak zone amid concerns about consumption demand in the US and new developments in US-Iran relations showing signs of cooling.

Closing, Brent oil price dropped to 61.12 USD/barrel, down 1.66%. Similarly, WTI oil price lost 1.73%, down to 58.07 USD/barrel.

Energy price list

According to the latest report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), commercial crude oil inventories in the US in the week ending May 2 decreased by about 2 million barrels, in line with the estimate of the American Petroleum Institute (API). However, two other figures from the EIA attracted the attention of investors: crude oil input at oil refineries decreased by 7,000 barrels/day, while gasoline inventories increased by 188,000 barrels compared to the previous week. The US is now preparing to enter the peak of summer, which is usually a period of strong gasoline consumption due to the travel needs of Americans. However, the information in the latest report from the EIA showed figures contrary to predictions, thereby making the market even more concerned about the prospect of gasoline consumption in the US this summer.

In addition, another piece of information that has received the attention of the market is the interest rate decision of the US Federal Reserve (FED). As expected by the market, the FED kept the interest rate at a relatively high level of 4.5% to curb inflation. This not only supports the strength of the greenback, but also restrains the increase in economic activities and even economic growth; thereby putting pressure on oil prices.

Meanwhile, the cooling of US-Iran relations has also pushed the world crude oil price down. In the framework of an event sponsored by the Munich Security Forum held in Washington, US Vice President JD Vance made statements in which he affirmed that the dialogue between the US and Iran is still going well and both sides are "on the right track". In addition, the market also expects the US-China trade negotiations scheduled to take place on May 10 in Switzerland. Although this is positive information that helps prevent the decline in oil prices, investors are still cautious about the results of this negotiation. In a hearing before the Financial Services Committee in the US House of Representatives yesterday, Secretary Bessent said that this is just the beginning and that big steps towards a trade agreement will be difficult to achieve.

Prices of some other goods