Coffee prices set a new peak, consequences of too high selling prices, possibility of market adjustment in the near future?

Vietnam's coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year is expected to decrease by 5% compared to the previous crop year to about 27 million bags, according to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa).

Coffee price today March 18, 2025

World coffee prices increased simultaneously on both London and New York exchanges with positive support from the weak USD.

Domestic coffee prices increased at the beginning of the week, currently trading in the range of 132,000 - 134,200 VND/kg. Vietnam's coffee harvest is gradually coming to an end. According to the Customs Department, Vietnam's coffee exports in February reached 169,832 tons, equivalent to a turnover of 964.3 million USD, up 26.7% in volume and 32.3% in turnover compared to the previous month, and up 6.9% in volume and 82.6% in turnover compared to the same period last year.

The dollar hovered near a five-month low against the euro in the previous session, as concerns about the economic fallout from US President Donald Trump’s trade policies kept investors cautious about the greenback.

Meanwhile, the situation regarding the Brazilian supply, information about lower than forecast rainfall in the Brazilian coffee growing regions also supported coffee at the beginning of the week. In addition, in February 2025, the total amount of coffee exported from Brazil decreased by about 10% compared to the same period last year, reaching only 3.27 million bags.

Specifically, the Brazilian Coffee Association (Cecafe) said that Brazil's green coffee exports in February 2025 decreased by 11.7% in volume compared to the same period in 2024, reaching only 3 million bags (60kg type) due to uncompetitive prices when compared to other producers; Arabica exports decreased by 2% over the same period to 2.77 million bags; Robusta exports decreased sharply by about 60% to about 226,000 bags.

Coffee prices have maintained their upward momentum since the beginning of this year due to concerns about supply shortages. However, according to forecasts from industry experts, coffee prices will be under pressure to adjust in the coming time as newly harvested supplies are gradually released to the market. In addition, global coffee demand is showing signs of decreasing due to high prices. Therefore, price adjustments in the coming time may occur.

Domestic coffee prices on March 17 increased by 700 - 1,000 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Cadillaccoffee)

According to the World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on March 17, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London for delivery in May 2025 increased sharply by 77 USD, trading at 5,474 USD/ton. The delivery in July 2025 increased by 74 USD, trading at 5,451 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased sharply, with the May 2025 delivery period increasing by 6.35 cents, trading at 383.55 cents/lb. The July 2025 delivery period increased by 6.45 cents, trading at 377.30 cents/lb. Average trading volume.

Domestic coffee prices on March 17 increased by 700 - 1,000 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,300	- 20
DAK LAK	132,700	+700
LAM DONG	131,000	+ 1,000
GIA LAI	132,700	+900
DAK NONG	133,000	+ 1,000

(Source: giacaphe.com)

Coffee prices in the world and in Vietnam have been continuously rising since the beginning of the year and setting new records due to concerns about supply shortages in Brazil and Vietnam, the world's two leading producing countries. As of March 12, domestic coffee prices in Vietnam fluctuated at 132,500 - 133,500 VND/kg, up 11% (12,280 - 13,200 VND/kg) compared to the end of last year.

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee exports totaled 10.8 million bags in January, down 13.3% year-on-year. In the first four months of the 2024-2025 coffee crop year (October 2024 to January 2025), total coffee exports reached 42.79 million bags, down 4.9% from 45.01 million bags in the same period of the 2023-2024 crop year.

Experts say the high prices could lead to a drop in demand and put pressure on prices in the near term. Reuters recently reported that global coffee traders and roasters said they have cut purchases to a minimum as the industry reels from the sharp price increase. Meanwhile, suppliers have been unable to convince retailers to accept them.

In late February, world coffee prices fluctuated in opposite directions, with robusta coffee prices falling while arabica coffee prices increased sharply.

The impact of last year's El Nino dry weather phenomenon could cause lasting damage to coffee crops in South and Central America.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1832025-gia-ca-phe-thiet-lap-dinh-moi-he-luy-do-gia-ban-qua-cao-kha-nang-thi-truong-dieu-chinh-trong-thoi-gian-toi-307957.html