Fall then spike

Spot gold prices recorded a volatile trading week. Starting the week at $3,360.52/ounce, prices quickly fell to the support level of $3,345/ounce. Buying pressure from investors in the first trading session of the week pushed gold prices to $3,383/ounce.

Unable to hold the $3,380/ounce level, gold prices quickly retreated to $3,350/ounce in early trading on Tuesday, before rebounding sharply to $3,390/ounce. Although they were unable to break through this resistance level immediately, buying pressure from Asian and European traders created momentum for the next rally.

On Thursday, initial news of the US imposing import tariffs on Swiss gold spread, causing market uncertainty. This was the catalyst that helped gold prices break the resistance level of $3,400/ounce.

Notably, gold prices remained high even after the White House officially denied the tariff news later in the day. After retesting the support level of $3,380/ounce, prices quickly recovered and traded around $3,400/ounce until the end of the week.

At the end of the week, spot gold price was at 3,397 USD/ounce, while gold futures price for September 2025 delivery on the Comex New York floor reached 3,414 USD/ounce.

Gold - Chi Hieu (7).jpg
Gold prices are expected to increase. Photo: Chi Hieu

Gold Price Forecast

According to Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, gold prices have reflected interest rate cut expectations and macro uncertainties. He said the market is at a crossroads, with a potential breakout to $3,700 an ounce or a decline to $3,280 an ounce in the short term.

Analyzing recent developments, Mr. Lusk said that the news of the US imposing import tariffs on gold from Switzerland was only “increasing tensions”, not the decisive factor. Most of the impact has been reflected in prices, as shown by the continuous record highs of gold.

If the market had really believed in the 39% tariff, COMEX gold would have spiked much higher, he said. That rumor was corrected over the weekend.

Despite the tariff talk being dismissed, Mr. Lusk sees the market as still primed for a major rally. A combination of economic and political uncertainty, coupled with low liquidity, is pushing gold prices to record highs.

On monetary policy, Mr. Lusk analyzed that high inflation data will not derail expectations of a rate cut in September. Current inflation is mainly due to supply and housing issues, while other factors are slowing down.

He predicted that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could act more aggressively, even cutting 50 basis points instead of just 25 points. According to him, a 25-point cut is “ineffective” in solving the current economic stagnation.

If the uncertainty continues, along with expectations of the Fed easing monetary policy soon, gold prices could break out. Mr. Lusk set the next target at $3,690-3,697/ounce.

Conversely, if the US dollar strengthens and geopolitical tensions ease, gold could face selling pressure. He warned that a drop below $3,400 an ounce could push prices to $3,280 an ounce.

Gold is in a solid uptrend and could soon break above key resistance levels, according to James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex. He maintains a bullish view, saying that buyers have the upper hand.

Spot gold is facing resistance at $3,435 an ounce, Stanley said. This level has been tested several times in May, June and July, but each time it has been touched it has resulted in only minor corrections. This shows that buyers are still in a strong position and have the potential to make a decisive breakout.

As for the higher target, the expert highlighted the major resistance level at $3,500/ounce, which has been established since April. He expects gold to reach this level through a strong and sustainable uptrend, rather than a sudden breakout.

Gold prices increase sharply, SJC gold giants make record profits Saigon Jewelry Company Limited (SJC) has just announced its audited financial report for 2024 with profits 4 times higher, in the context of strong fluctuations in SJC gold prices.

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/gia-vang-bien-dong-manh-chuyen-gia-canh-bao-cu-soc-sap-den-2430325.html