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Two scenarios for storm number 4 to make landfall

Việt NamViệt Nam16/09/2024


TPO – The tropical depression forming in the sea east of the Philippines is forecast to enter the East Sea tomorrow (September 17), strengthening into a storm around September 18, after which there may be two scenarios for making landfall in our country.

At 1:00 p.m. this afternoon (September 16), the center of the tropical depression was at about 17.1 degrees North latitude; 123.9 degrees East longitude, in the sea east of Luzon Island of the Philippines with the strongest wind near the center of the tropical depression at level 6-7 (39-61 km/h), gusting to level 9.

According to Mr. Nguyen Van Huong, Head of Weather Forecasting Department (National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting), around the morning of September 17, the tropical depression will enter the East Sea. However, due to unfavorable environmental conditions (having to share moisture and energy with the storm active in the Northwest Pacific ), the tropical depression will take 1-2 days to stabilize its structure after entering the East Sea.

It is forecasted that around September 18, the tropical depression may strengthen into a storm, moving towards the middle of the East Sea, near Vietnam's Hoang Sa archipelago.

Hai kịch bản vào đất liền của bão số 4
Mr. Nguyen Van Huong, Head of Weather Forecast Department of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, shares about the tropical depression.

According to Mr. Huong, when it reaches this area, the storm's path will be very complicated due to large-scale fluctuations in the guiding current from the subtropical high pressure and the impact of cold air from after September 19.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting identified two possible scenarios.

In the first scenario, the storm will move straight into the central region of our country, focusing on the provinces in the Central Central region. According to this scenario, the storm will affect our mainland quite early, around September 19-20.

The second scenario is that when reaching the Paracel Islands, the storm changes direction to the west-northwest, heading towards the Northern and North Central regions of our country. With this scenario, the storm could directly affect our mainland this weekend.

Regarding the intensity of the storm, according to the assessment of Vietnam and major meteorological stations in the world , it will be complex and unpredictable, depending on the influence of many conditions. However, this storm is less likely to explode and be as strong as super typhoon YAGI.

Mr. Huong noted that from the morning of September 17, due to the influence of the tropical depression, the eastern sea of ​​the North East Sea area has had showers and thunderstorms, strong winds of level 7 (50-61km/h), gusts of level 9 (75-88km/h), rough seas, and waves of 2-4m high. Ships operating in dangerous areas are likely to be affected by strong winds and large waves.

Experts also note that due to the complex path and intensity of the storm, it is necessary to continuously update the latest forecasts.

Tienphong.vn

Source: https://tienphong.vn/hai-kich-ban-vao-dat-lien-cua-bao-so-4-post1673689.tpo


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