Italy 'helps' FIFA expand 2030 World Cup to 64 teams?

Gattuso is frustrated with UEFA's 2026 World Cup qualifying format.

A 2-0 win over Moldova gave Italy their sixth win in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers – a feat that seemed to be enough to secure a direct ticket to the US. But the harsh reality is that the Azzurri are almost certain to finish second in the group, unable to compete for the top spot against a Norway side that is too stable and has a superior goal difference.

According to calculations, Italy needs to win by 9 goals in the final round to surpass Norway. Coach Gennaro Gattuso and his team now face the prospect of a play-off - something they fear more than any other opponent in Europe.

Italy's nightmare

Italy’s playoff fears are nothing new. In the 2018 World Cup qualifying round, Italy won seven of their 10 games but still finished behind Spain and had to enter a do-or-die playoff against Sweden. They then lost 1-0 and missed out on the World Cup for the first time in 60 years.

In the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, the tragedy repeated itself. Italy went undefeated with 4 wins and 4 draws but still finished behind Switzerland. In the play-off semi-finals, they fell to North Macedonia, a result that shocked the world . Now the "second place and stay home" scenario was hanging in the air again, and that feeling of helplessness made coach Gattuso explode.

After the win over Moldova, Gattuso declared that the rules had to change, that a second-placed team with a good record should go straight through. But he seemed to forget that in the history of European World Cup qualifying in the 21st century, second-placed teams have always had to play a play-off.

Italy missed two consecutive World Cups because of the deadly play-off series.

It is worth remembering that the last time a direct ticket was given to the runner-up in a group in Europe was in the 1994 World Cup qualifiers – when each group had 6 or 7 teams. In other words, there was no injustice, only dissatisfaction when Italy was no longer the dominant force.

The problem is that the World Cup has expanded to 48 teams since 2026, and Europe has been allocated 16 places. However, UEFA still retains four places for the play-off system to serve the value of the UEFA Nations League – a tournament that generates huge revenue. Therefore, UEFA cannot cut the benefits. This means only 12 direct places, and with the number of European teams now up to 54, dividing the groups so that the second team gets a direct ticket is almost impossible.

If UEFA wanted the runners-up to qualify, they would have to divide the qualifying round into six groups – an unreasonable structure. Furthermore, fewer groups would create a situation where many strong teams would be drawn in the same group, increasing the risk of Italy falling to 3rd or 4th place. This would be very likely to happen if their group included, for example, Spain (pot 1), Sweden (pot 3), Ireland (pot 4).

Only FIFA can save Italy

Italy’s impasse and Gattuso’s frustration have inadvertently led to a conclusion: for the second-placed team to also get a direct ticket, Europe must have more spots. And to have more spots, FIFA must expand the World Cup to… 64 teams in 2030. Only by giving 4-5 more spots to Europe will UEFA have the space to adjust the qualifying mechanism without breaking the Nations League system and without reducing the number of play-off tickets that bring in many attractive matches and big revenue.

FIFA also wants to expand the 2030 World Cup to 64 teams, but that idea has been met with fierce opposition from UEFA President Aleksander Ceferin, who called it a bad idea. However, right in the heart of Europe, a powerful voice has inadvertently opened the door for FIFA's plan.

There, Italy – the four-time world champions – indirectly asserted that the current UEFA qualifying system is unfair and needs to be changed. If a major power repeatedly misses the World Cup and demands that UEFA be fair (due to distributing too many tickets for the play-offs to "fatten up" the Nations League), can FIFA be indifferent?

The FIFA president is an... Italian.

For FIFA, nothing is more convenient than having a "symbolic victim" to justify expansion. And Italy – a team absent from two consecutive World Cups – is at risk of repeating history. Now, FIFA can rely on a very simple argument: "No one wants a team of Italy's caliber to continue to be absent."

So, Gattuso's complaint and the "Azzurri" dilemma are nothing less than a godsend for FIFA in their efforts to increase the World Cup to 64 teams. UEFA is now in a difficult position because everyone sees that they created a ridiculous qualifying format because of their "care" for the Nations League. Therefore, UEFA may not be able to stop FIFA from increasing the number of teams participating in the World Cup.

Italy did not intend to support FIFA. But in the heated debate over the size of the 2030 World Cup, Gattuso's weak but indignant voice inadvertently became evidence for FIFA to push forward a plan that is opposed by Europe.

And if the 2030 World Cup is indeed expanded, it could be argued that Italy – in its fear of the play-offs – is partly responsible for the biggest change in world football in the next decade. And finally, it should be noted that the current FIFA president, Gianni Infantino, is Italian.

Source: https://znews.vn/italy-tiep-tay-cho-fifa-mo-rong-world-cup-2030-len-64-doi-post1602933.html