To achieve growth targets, we must focus on domestic drivers.

This expert believes that the current US tariff policy will affect the export of Vietnamese goods to the US market. In addition, the US tariff policy also establishes rules and regulations in the international market. As the free trade game is changing, new tariff policies of countries and the unpredictability of trade policies of major countries, Vietnam is facing many risks because the Vietnamese economy is strongly oriented towards exports.

Specifically, exports - investment - consumption are the three driving forces of aggregate demand to boost growth in 2025 and the following years will be affected. For exports, when there is a new tariff policy, regardless of whether it is within 90 days after the negotiations, the world will still have to face higher tariffs. Therefore, Vietnam's export momentum will certainly be affected. FDI capital flows will also be affected to a certain extent.

The immediate growth driver from consumption is also being affected. In reality, the cost of living is rising, income is not growing quickly, personal income tax is inadequate, especially housing market prices are also affecting people's purchasing power. When people have to spend too much on housing, they will also limit their consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to remove this bottleneck to promote growth from domestic consumption.

For private investment, according to experts, the investment environment is not based on a period of 1-2 years but on a macroeconomic foundation accompanied by stable and transparent policies over a long period of time to attract private investment. However, currently, domestic enterprises still face many difficulties. Therefore, to attract private investment, it is necessary to create a stable business and institutional environment for many years.

“In the context of a volatile world, the domestic investment environment must be very safe for businesses to invest long-term. This year is the first year to set a high growth target, so policies cannot immediately impact the private investment sector. However, institutional reform, administrative procedure reform, and removing business barriers will stimulate private investment to increase again in the following years,” said Associate Professor, Dr. Pham The Anh.

Finally, public investment, according to Associate Professor Dr. Pham The Anh, if legal risks are removed and public investment projects are cleared, will provide momentum for economic growth. However, public investment will only partially offset negative external impacts. Achieving double-digit GDP growth or over 8% is very challenging and risky because if "forced disbursement" will be difficult to attract private investment.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/muon-dat-muc-tieu-tang-truong-phai-tap-trung-vao-dong-luc-trong-nuoc-162607.html