NATO struggles to find new leader

As NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg's term ends in a few months, the alliance is looking for his replacement but has no real potential candidate.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, 64, is expected to leave his position in September, after nine years as head of the military alliance.

Many alliance members want to name his successor during or even before the NATO summit in Lithuania in mid-July, leaving little time for the 31-member alliance to find the consensus needed to choose a new leader. They could also ask Mr Stoltenberg to extend his term for a fourth time.

Whoever takes power now faces the challenge of maintaining the alliance's support for Ukraine while guarding against any escalation that could drag NATO into direct war with Russia.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former head of NATO, said the alliance should not rush into a decision. "The new NATO secretary general must meet two requirements: one is to be able to maintain the unity of the alliance and two is to speak firmly to Russian President Vladimir Putin and other leaders who are threatening the alliance," he commented.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks at a joint press conference with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in Berlin on January 24. Photo: AFP

The search for a new NATO secretary general is taking place quietly in consultations among leaders and diplomats . Those consultations will continue until all NATO members reach a consensus.

"Just like when the Vatican chooses a new pope, everything at NATO headquarters is done in silence," said Jamie Shea, a former senior NATO official who served the alliance for 38 years.

British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, 53, hinted last week that he would like to take the job. However, many diplomats believe Wallace is unlikely to become leader of the alliance, despite his widespread respect within the bloc. Many want a former prime minister or president to take the role to ensure the alliance leader has the most senior political influence. Jens Stoltenberg was prime minister of Norway from 2005 to 2013.

British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace in London in September 2022. Photo: Reuters

As some governments push the idea of the first female secretary-general, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, 45, has emerged as a strong candidate. Others, notably France, want the candidate to be from a European Union (EU) country, hoping to strengthen cooperation between NATO and the EU.

Frederiksen meets all of the above criteria. NATO diplomats say behind the scenes, Frederiksen's candidacy is being seriously considered.

The Danish prime minister has received further media attention this week after the White House announced she would meet with US President Joe Biden in early June.

“I am not applying for any position,” Frederiksen told reporters in Copenhagen on May 24, dismissing speculation that the visit could be an “interview” for the NATO leadership role. However, Frederiksen did not indicate that she was not interested in the position.

While the NATO secretary-general role has traditionally gone to a European, any candidate would need the support of the alliance’s leading power, the United States. A source familiar with U.S. thinking said the Biden administration has yet to find a clear favorite and that top aides are “actively debating” the issue.

A US State Department spokesman said it was "too early to speculate about who the US supports".

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in Copenhagen on May 1. Photo: Reuters

Ms Frederiksen became Denmark's youngest prime minister in history in 2019, taking office at the age of 41. She was praised for her crisis management during the Covid-19 pandemic and won a second term last year.

She would have to give up her role as prime minister if she became NATO leader, which political commentators say would put the Danish government at risk. Furthermore, her bid for the NATO secretary general position will not be smooth sailing, as Denmark has failed to meet the NATO budget target of spending 2% of GDP on defense. Denmark currently spends 1.38% of its GDP on defense, although Frederiksen has pledged to accelerate efforts to reach the target.

Some allies say the responsibility should go to someone from Eastern Europe for the first time, especially as Russia's war in Ukraine has made the region more important to NATO.

If Ms Frederiksen takes the lead, she will become the third consecutive NATO leader from a Nordic country.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (who served as German defense minister under Angela Merkel), and Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland have also been mentioned in discussions for the NATO secretary general position.

But diplomats say Kallas is seen as too tough on Russia, while Berlin wants von der Leyen to stay on at the European Commission. Freeland faces major obstacles as a non-European and from a country with a lower defense budget than other members of the bloc.

Other names in the running for the job include Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. But Mr Rutte has said he does not want the NATO job and Mr Sanchez faces a general election later this year.

Some diplomats worry that many of the candidates may not have the support of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is expected to be re-elected as Turkish president and has not hesitated to block NATO decisions. Türkiye, along with Hungary, is blocking Sweden’s bid to join NATO.

The lack of strong candidates raises the possibility that Stoltenberg’s term will be extended again, until the next NATO summit in 2024. Stoltenberg’s term was originally set to end in October 2022, and he had been planning to take up the central bank governorship in his native Norway. However, NATO agreed in March last year to extend his term by a year because of the Ukraine crisis.

In recent interviews, Stoltenberg has confirmed that his term will end this autumn. “My plan is to return to Norway, I have been here too long,” Stoltenberg said in Belgium in April.

“The more names are put forward, the more it becomes clear that there are no viable candidates,” said a senior European diplomat.

Thanh Tam (According to Reuters, Politico )

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