Russia invades 10 km deep, Pokrovsk is at risk of being surrounded

Ukraine was forced to deploy elite forces to block the Russian advance in Donetsk, while Pokrovsk faced the risk of being surrounded.

Just days before a planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a peace plan, the war in Ukraine suddenly shook. In the east, Russia launched a powerful attack, creating the deepest breakthrough in a year, forcing Kiev to hastily mobilize its most elite units to the hotbed of Donetsk.

“The situation remains complex and dynamic,” said Lieutenant Colonel Azov of the 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine, who arrived to reinforce the area. He said that units had taken many measures to stop the enemy’s advance, despite Russia accepting heavy losses in manpower and equipment to open the way.

Over the past three days, Russian forces have advanced about 10 kilometers in some directions, marking a level of incursion rarely seen since mid-2024. President Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly downplayed the scale of the offensive, stressing that many Russian soldiers were ill-equipped and had been killed or captured. But some Ukrainian observers and soldiers are more pessimistic.

According to the General Staff of Ukraine, Russia has concentrated more than 110,000 troops in the Dobropillia - Pokrovsk direction. Spokesman Andriy Kovalov affirmed that the Defense Forces are effectively preventing this advance, but the risk still exists if the enemy successfully exploits the tactical gap.

Wall Street Journal reporter Yaroslav Trofimov warned of the possibility of Russian forces cutting off the strategic Dobropillia-Kramatorsk road, threatening to isolate a large part of the Ukrainian forces. Former spokesperson Iuliia Mendel also said the risk of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk being isolated was “very serious”.

Russia has seized the settlements of Kucheriv Yar and Zolotyi Kolodiaz and is amassing forces in preparation for a further offensive, according to sources from the open intelligence analysis group DeepState. The potential goal is to push deeper into the area and establish a strong position to expand the corridor of control.

Lieutenant Colonel Bohdan Krotevych, former chief of staff of Azov, sent a public message to President Zelensky describing the situation on the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka line as “complete chaos.” He warned that Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad were virtually surrounded, while Kostiantynivka was partially encircled.

On the military blogger Tatarigami, the current situation is compared to the attack in May 2024, when Russia also advanced 10 km but was stopped. However, this time it is unclear whether Ukraine has enough forces to stop more than 100,000 Russian troops in the direction of Pokrovsk.

In addition, analyst Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Foundation said that the overwhelming human advantage is the key factor helping Russia advance. According to him, Moscow is using small infantry units combined with the advantage of drones to penetrate the overburdened Ukrainian defenses, instead of relying on armored vehicles.

Kofman argues that Ukraine has attempted to compensate for its lack of ground troops with UAVs, which have helped in the short term but are not enough to stabilize the front in the long term. The lack of reserves and the ability to organize a coordinated defensive operation are creating conditions for gradual but difficult to reverse advances.

The tense situation comes as both sides seek to gain leverage ahead of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska. The US president has hinted that a peace deal could require Ukraine to cede territory, something Kiev has firmly rejected. “We will not leave Donbass,” Zelensky said. “If we lose Donbass, it will be a springboard for a new Russian offensive.”

Pokrovsk, Ukraine’s key logistical stronghold, has been repeatedly attempted to capture by Russia for more than a year without success. This latest offensive, the outcome of which is still undecided, has clearly given Russia a strategic advantage at a crucial moment in the diplomatic and military chessboard.

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