Retail Industry: Growth Prospects Amid Recovering Consumption

The policy to stimulate consumption, especially the reduction of VAT to 8% for essential goods, has created an important driving force for the consumer and retail industry. In this picture, Masan (HOSE: MSN) stands out when after only 9 months it forecasts to complete 90% of its 2025 profit plan, strengthening confidence in the industry's growth prospects.

Domestic demand boosts retail stocks

SSI Research has just published a report estimating the business results of the third quarter of 2025 of 42 companies in the research scope, recording a clear recovery in the profit picture. Accordingly, the profits of these listed companies are forecast to increase by 26.9% over the same period, much higher than the 14% growth rate achieved in the first half of the year. Profit growth compared to the second quarter of 2025 reached 2.1%. In this context, the retail - consumer stocks group emerged as a bright spot when directly benefiting from stimulus policies and increased household spending.

The government has reduced VAT from 10% to 8% on essential goods, applicable from July 2025 to the end of 2026, thereby directly supporting people's purchasing power. With domestic consumption now accounting for more than 60% of GDP, this move not only helps maintain short-term recovery momentum but also lays the foundation for sustainable growth. In addition to policy factors, the shift from traditional markets to modern retail channels continues to be a long-term driver, helping businesses expand market share and improve profit margins.

Retail businesses: Completed 90% of annual profit plan after 9 months

According to information from the enterprise, in the first 9 months of 2025, Masan (HOSE: MSN) is estimated to achieve profit after tax before minority interests (NPAT Pre-MI) exceeding 90% compared to the base scenario profit plan for 2025. This result shows that Masan is on track, with room to make a breakthrough in the fourth quarter, the peak consumption period at the end of the year, thereby strengthening the prospect of completing and possibly exceeding the full-year target.

The key driver comes from WinCommerce (WCM) - a retail chain with more than 4,200 stores nationwide, of which 75% are newly opened in rural areas. WCM recorded revenue of more than VND25,000 billion (+16.1% over the same period) in the first 8 months of the year, with August alone reaching VND3,573 billion (+24.2%). This result reflects the strong resilience of domestic consumption and the effectiveness of the modern retail model.

Masan MEATLife (MML), a member company of the Masan ecosystem, also maintained positive growth after the restructuring period. In August 2025, MML sold 14,007 tons of products (+12.9%), with revenue reaching VND999 billion (+11.1%), and profit after tax increasing by 60.5% to VND35 billion. EBIT and EBITDA indicators both improved, showing that operational efficiency and profit margins are being consolidated. This is evidence of the trend of consumers shifting to branded, safe and transparent products.

In addition, Masan High-Tech Materials benefits from the recovery in tungsten prices, while Phuc Long continues to boost sales and improve customer experience. Masan Consumer is expected to recover strongly from 2026 when the FMCG market stabilizes.
Long-term outlook for the retail group

According to the September 2025 update report, Bao Viet Securities (BVSC) maintains an OUTPERFORM recommendation with a target price of VND 106,000/share for MSN, significantly higher than the market price. BVSC assesses that MSN's growth momentum comes from the synergy between WinCommerce, Masan MEATLife, Masan High-Tech Materials and Phuc Long.

However, experts also note the challenges in the short term: fierce competition in the retail industry, fluctuations in raw material and operating costs, and new regulations such as electronic invoices can put pressure on businesses. This requires businesses to maintain the expansion rate while optimizing operations to preserve profit margins.

In the long term, domestic demand, along with the shift to modern retail channels, is forecast to continue to be a growth driver. Therefore, retail stocks are still considered by analysts to be one of the attractive destinations for cash flow in the Vietnamese stock market in late 2025 - early 2026.

Source: https://www.masangroup.com/vi/news/masan-news/Retail-Sector-Growth-Prospects-Amidst-Consumption-Recovery.html