Spain's Man City have the chance to get revenge and become the first English club to win two away games at Real, in the first leg of the Champions League semi-final today.
This will be the ninth time Real and Man City have met in European competition, with their previous head-to-head record being evenly matched with three wins each. Of the last four, Man City have won three, but the most impressive and memorable victory has been Real's.
In the second leg of last season's Champions League semi-final, Man City were very close to reaching the final. At the Bernabeu that day, the English team led 5-3 going into the final and were on their way to becoming the first English club to win more than once at Real in the Champions League. However, Rodrygo's double in the 90th and 90+1st minutes and Karim Benzema's penalty left Guardiola and his team with a bitter defeat.
Man City striker Phil Foden is tackled by Real defender Militao during the second leg of the Champions League semi-final at the Bernabeu last season. Photo: Reuters
Today, Man City have the chance to take revenge and rewrite history. English clubs have won only four of Real's 18 away games in the Champions League, split evenly between Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City themselves. The rest, the English representatives drew four and lost ten when traveling to Spain to play Real.
Confidence is high as Man City hit peak form in the run-up to the game. They are unbeaten in 20 games in all competitions, winning 17 and drawing three, with their last defeat coming in a 1-0 Premier League loss to Tottenham on 5 February.
This series of matches helps Man City become the second English club to win the Champions League, Premier League, FA Cup after Man Utd in the 1998-1999 season. If they overcome Real, they will meet the winner of the Milan - Inter match in the Champions League final, play Man Utd in the FA Cup final on June 3 and are leading the Premier League with one point more than Arsenal and one game less.
Erling Haaland is considered the biggest difference between Man City this season and previous seasons, the one who can help the team break the Champions League "curse". The Norwegian striker scored 51 goals in 46 matches in all competitions, breaking a series of records in the Champions League and the Premier League, 15 more than any other player in the top five European leagues this season. On average, he scored a goal every 70 minutes.
On the other hand, Real's greatest strength is still their experience and experience in the continental arena. The Madrid team has drawn one, lost one and won 10 of their last 12 Champions League matches, including a five-match winning streak. The last time Real won six consecutive matches in the tournament was from April 2014 to February 2015 with a 10-match winning streak.
Real have lost just one and won nine of their last 10 home Champions League games. They have also won all six of their last knockout games in the competition, including the final. Only Bayern - with a run of seven games between February 2020 and March 2021 - have a longer winning streak in the knockout stages in the competition's history.
Real also had a perfect start when they beat Osasuna 2-1 to reach the milestone of 20 Copa del Rey titles last weekend. Coach Carlo Ancelotti said he celebrated and enjoyed this title with his players to have the most comfortable spirit for the big match against Man City.
However, the supercomputer Opta rates Man City higher with a 43.4% chance of winning at the Bernabeu. Furthermore, Opta also sees Guardiola's team as the strongest candidate with a 48.6% chance of winning. Following them are Inter (22.9%), Real (16.9%) and Milan (11.5%).
"Man City are usually supporting characters, never the main stars in the Champions League. So could 2022-2023 be their season?", The Analyst asked.
Expected lineup:
Real: Courtois; Carvajal, Rudiger, Alaba, Camavinga; Modric, Kroos; Valverde; Rodrygo, Benzema, Vinicius
Man City: Ederson; Walker, Stones, Dias, Akanji; De Bruyne, Rodri, Gundogan; Bernardo Silva, Haaland, Grealish
Hong Duy
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