After half a year of silence, will interest rates explode at the end of the year?

According to economic expert Nguyen Tri Hieu, increasing deposit interest rates is aimed at mobilizing more money into banks.

“Since the beginning of the year, credit growth has always been higher than deposit growth. If this continues, it will lead to a situation where banks do not have enough money to lend. Therefore, in the second half of the year, banks may be forced to increase deposit interest rates to supplement cash flow and increase credit activities,” Mr. Hieu commented.

Therefore, expert Nguyen Tri Hieu predicts that the last months of the year will be the time when banks will compete to increase interest rates to ensure growth targets.

Banks can increase deposit interest rates to achieve growth targets. (Illustration photo)

In addition, Mr. Hieu also said that another reason for the recent decline in the amount of money flowing into banks is that the gold market is attracting a huge amount of capital from the economy. Instead of saving at a not-so-attractive interest rate, people are withdrawing money to buy gold and store it away.

Since then, banks have been forced to increase deposit interest rates to turn this into a more attractive channel to attract capital.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyen Quang Huy, CEO of the Faculty of Banking and Finance at Nguyen Trai University, also said that it is normal for banks to increase interest rates in the coming time. Because now we are preparing to enter the end of the second quarter and the third quarter, which is a very important time for banks to accelerate growth in outstanding credit.

"So this will also be the time when banks are forced to increase deposit interest rates to have capital to meet disbursement and credit growth plans ," Mr. Huy commented.

However, experts emphasized that, in general, banks will increase interest rates under the control of the State Bank, meeting the requirement of stabilizing interest rates to support economic growth.

Therefore, banks will be forced to balance between reducing costs and researching reasonable input interest rates to ensure expected profits. Mr. Huy predicts that from the middle of the third quarter until the last months of the year, banks' interest rates will increase sharply.

Difficult to return to "huge" interest rates?

Assuming that although the mobilization interest rate has increased, it is difficult to return to the attractive high level as in the same period of previous years, expert Nguyen Quang Huy analyzed that currently, the annual credit growth plan of banks is expected to be around 16%.

However, credit growth is also related to public investment disbursement activities since the beginning of the year, which have been promoted by various sectors, bringing a significant amount of capital to the market.

In addition, the current credit absorption capacity of enterprises is related to a number of factors such as the high export tax imposed on the US, forcing enterprises to recalculate their production plans, consider whether to expand their scale, and even consider downsizing in many areas. Therefore, the credit demand of enterprises during this period will not be too strong.

“Therefore, the "hot" increase in deposit interest rates like in previous years will be unlikely to happen. Banks will basically still follow the State Bank's policy that although deposit interest rates may increase, they will ensure that they are reasonable within the allowed range, ” said Mr. Huy.

Meanwhile, expert Nguyen Tri Hieu said that there are still factors that can cause deposit interest rates to increase sharply again to the level of previous years.

“The safest factor of bank deposits is safety. So even though the profit rate is lower than other channels, many people will still choose to deposit money in banks,” said Mr. Hieu.

Besides, in the coming time, Mr. Hieu believes that with the development prospects of long-term investment markets such as stocks, real estate, etc., credit capital is in great need.

"However, banks will increase deposit interest rates with two main purposes: achieving credit growth and ensuring system liquidity," Mr. Hieu emphasized.

Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/sau-nua-nam-im-ang-lai-suat-huy-dong-cuoi-nam-se-bung-no-3356650.html