Growth based on competence rather than incentives

The announcement of the Vietnam-US Joint Statement on the Framework for a Fair, Reciprocal, and Balanced Trade Agreement is not just a tariff adjustment, it is a reformulation of the bilateral “rules of the game.” When “reciprocity” is properly understood as mutual raising of standards—not just tariff concessions—Vietnam can make 2025 a milestone in the transition from preferential-based growth to capacity-based growth.

Macro fundamentals sufficient to take advantage of the “reciprocal window”

On October 26, 2025, Vietnam and the United States agreed to issue the Vietnam-US Joint Statement on the Framework for a Fair and Balanced Trade Agreement (Joint Statement) on the occasion of President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh attending the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The core is the US lowering the “reciprocal tax” rate on goods originating from Vietnam to 20% (from 46%) according to the US President's decree.

Looking at the Vietnamese economic picture, it can be seen that the macro foundation is strong enough to take advantage of the "corresponding window".

Vietnam's economy accelerated in the third quarter of 2025 (growth of 8.23% over the same period), reaching 7.85% in the first 9 months - among the highest in 11 years. Inflation remained in the range of 3.27 - 3.38% in the first 9 months, allowing monetary and fiscal policies to coordinate to support growth while maintaining price stability. Total exports in the first 9 months were estimated at 348.7 billion USD (up 16%); exports to the United States alone reached 112.8 billion USD, continuing to consolidate Vietnam's position as the number 1 market. These figures show that the "locomotive" outside the country is recovering while the domestic macro balance has room.

Export activities of goods at Cai Mep - Thi Vai port cluster Photo: Hong Dat

Regarding production, the industrial production index (IIP) increased sharply compared to the same period from the beginning of the year; retail sales in the first 9 months increased by about 11%, reflecting domestic demand in line with exports. Despite short-term adjustments in some product groups after the US imposed a 20% rate from July to August 2025, the picture in the third quarter still shows that the industrial - export sector "surpassed the wave" thanks to electronics, chemicals, and processed agricultural products.

The reduction of the reciprocal tax to 20% essentially sets a new “risk ceiling”, instead of having businesses face the previously mentioned 46% rate. At the same time, the US leaves open the possibility of applying a 0% tax rate to a number of “similar partners” if they meet the criteria, creating an incentive for Vietnam to improve non-tariff barriers and the level of openness in each industry. This is a “two-way reciprocity”: benefits are linked to compliance conditions, not unlimited incentives.

There are two points to note: The US is simultaneously tightening 40% on transit goods - a signal of strict control of rules of origin; US trade has a political cycle - the risk of adjustment according to the election context and trade defense investigations is real. Therefore, Vietnamese businesses can only turn the "window of opportunity" into a "sustainable advantage" if they seriously invest in traceability, labor, environment, intellectual property protection and compliance data.

With a high annual growth target (8.3 - 8.5%), the 20% reciprocal tax can be seen as a regulating valve to help reduce tariff fluctuations, increase forecasting of orders in the fourth quarter; attract capital and "conditional" orders into industries that meet high standards; promote the transition from processing to manufacturing, services with technology and data content.

But to "finalize" 2025, four synchronized policy pillars are needed.

Firstly, remove non-tariff barriers in line with US/EU standards. Review and simplify specialized inspections; expand the mutual recognition mechanism with conformity assessment results; make transparent the licensing process for medical equipment, pharmaceuticals and vehicles that meet US standards as stated in the Joint Statement. Speeding up this step helps businesses shorten customs clearance time and costs.

Second, data and digital trade - the "compliance proof" corridor. Establish a National Compliance Data Portal for the US market: library of rules of origin by HS code; ESG - labor reporting form; guidance on tracing raw material areas by QR/RFID code; early warning of trade defense investigations. Include standards for data protection, storage, cross-border data transfer... in the digital trade framework compatible with commitments.

Third, “targeted” export finance and risk prevention, opening preferential credit packages with conditions for technological innovation - automation - ESG for businesses with export contracts to the US; implementing export credit insurance and exchange rate/interest rate derivatives, especially for aviation, textile and wood businesses.

Fourth, linking FDI with domestic enterprises to increase the value-added ratio in Vietnam; encouraging co-production in electronics, textiles, and aviation equipment; building supporting industrial clusters associated with cold logistics. The goal is to increase localization, reduce dependence on imported raw materials from third countries, thereby reducing the risk of being subject to the 40% transit rate.

Three questions for policy oversight

At this socio-economic discussion session, the National Assembly needs to ask three policy monitoring questions.

First , how far has it been implemented? There needs to be a clear roadmap and timeline for ministries and sectors to complete technical regulations (standard recognition, fast licensing, intellectual property, data). Second, what support is provided to businesses to meet the conditions? Third , how is growth quality measured? Not just turnover, there needs to be indicators on export profit margins, long-term order ratio, localization ratio, number of trade defense investigations/goods recalls, average customs clearance time. This is a policy output that reflects real integration capacity.

In short, the 20% reciprocal tax is a “take-off ticket”, not a “safe harbor”. Externally, it affirms Vietnam’s strategic confidence and role in restructuring the regional supply chain. Internally, it forces us to raise institutional standards, standardize data and professional standards of enterprises. When “reciprocal” is properly understood as raising standards together – not just transferring taxes – Vietnam can turn 2025 into a milestone for the transition from growth based on incentives to growth based on capacity.

In the short term, the goal of completing the 2025 target is reasonable if we clear non-tariff barriers, operate a compliance data portal, quickly disburse public investment for logistics and energy, and maintain regional inflation at 3-4% to nurture domestic demand.

In the medium term, signing and fully implementing the Reciprocal Trade Agreement will be the “runway” for the 2026-2030 period: higher value exports, deeper localization and better supply chain resilience.

Source: https://daibieunhandan.vn/tang-truong-dua-tren-nang-luc-thay-vi-uu-dai-10393569.html