Banking industry credit growth:

Although the State Bank only set a credit growth target of 16% for the whole year of 2025, many financial institutions and experts forecast that this figure could reach 18-20%. Because low interest rates are creating conditions for businesses to better access bank loans, along with positive results from the economy, these will be factors that help credit achieve growth rates exceeding the plan.

Customers transact at the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam. Photo: Nguyen Quang

Growth can reach 18-20%

Recently, Vietcombank Securities Joint Stock Company (VCBS) announced the Outlook Report for the last months of 2025, in which it forecasts the banking system's credit growth in 2025 to reach 18-20%. According to the report, VCBS raised its forecast for pre-tax profit growth from 15% to 18%, in which it adjusted the forecast for small-scale banks with high credit growth and strong handling of bad debt. Dynamic private banks will benefit from policies to encourage the private economy and improve asset quality...

These analyses are based on low interest rates stimulating credit demand in the context of increased public investment; real estate legal issues are gradually being resolved, along with the orientation of supporting the private economy , including small and medium enterprises. Specifically, monetary policy continues to loosen, system liquidity is stable, credit demand recovers, especially in the long-term home loan segment, lending interest rates show signs of increasing.

Regarding asset quality, VCBS expects the bad debt ratio to gradually decrease and bad debt collection activities to be more favorable. The VCBS report said that the potential bad debt ratio has gradually decreased for many consecutive quarters, helping banks reduce the pressure to transfer debt groups. According to the report, restructured debt will be transferred to the normal group after a difficult period. In particular, the State Bank has proactively loosened the credit ceiling for banks from July 2025, in which large banks participating in compulsory transfers will benefit significantly from the policy of loosening credit "room".

Many banks benefit from the policy

Regarding the forecast for the group of state-owned banks, although the credit growth rate is slower, there are many highlights, notably the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam ( BIDV ) aims to increase its charter capital by 30.8% in the 2025-2026 period (an increase of VND 21,656 billion to VND 91,870 billion) through issuing shares from the reserve fund, paying dividends in shares and offering individual shares to the public to increase financial capacity and meet capital safety standards. BIDV is expected to have a credit growth rate equivalent to the industry average, about 16%, with the net interest margin (NIM) decreasing slightly to 2.3%. Asset quality is among the best in the industry, and provisioning pressure is low.

Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade (VietinBank) also approved a dividend payment plan to increase its charter capital from about VND53,700 billion to more than VND77,671 billion, equivalent to an increase of more than 40% in 2025, while continuing to completely handle bad debts to consolidate its financial foundation. VietinBank's leaders also affirmed that the bank increased its capital to strengthen its financial capacity, meet the capital needs of the economy and achieve the Government's overall growth targets. VietinBank is forecast to have a credit growth rate equivalent to the industry average, reaching 16.9% in 2025. Net interest margin began to recover from the second half of the year thanks to the momentum from both mobilization and lending. Asset quality is well controlled, some restructured customers have finished the supervision period and are transferred to lower debt groups, thanks to which the bank will reverse provisions in the second quarter of 2025.

Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (Vietcombank) also benefits from the reduction in the required reserve ratio, creating more room for growth. It is estimated that Vietcombank will have its required reserve reduced by about VND23,850 billion, this source of capital has the opportunity to be "pumped" into the economy, contributing to supporting growth. Vietcombank is forecast to have credit growth of 18-20% in 2025.

The joint stock commercial bank group is also forecast to be positive, in which, Vietnam Technological and Commercial Joint Stock Bank (Techcombank) can have good credit growth thanks to the recovery of the real estate and construction market. The bank maintains a high rate of non-term deposits, creating an advantage in capital costs and reducing the pressure on narrowing net interest margins, while diversifying non-interest income sources to increase its contribution to profits. The initial public offering plan of subsidiary TCBS is expected to supplement capital sources, re-evaluate investments and consolidate its position in the financial market.

Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank (ACB) is forecast to have a positive credit growth rate in 2025, thanks to the recovery of individual customers, while the credit demand of corporate customers tends to increase. ACB's profitability remains high thanks to cost control and good asset quality management. Net interest margin is expected to recover slightly from the second half of 2025 thanks to improved capital costs and a gradual slowdown in lending interest rate reduction. ACB representative said that the bank targets credit growth of 16%.

Experts have a more optimistic forecast, saying that the private banking sector will continue to lead, with net profit growth of 27.1% compared to the same period in 2024. Credit growth is boosted by a recovery in net profit margins, helping to significantly improve the profits of joint stock commercial banks.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/tang-truong-tin-dung-nganh-ngan-hang-nhung-du-bao-lac-quan-715252.html