The market is moving sideways before the upgrade review period.
During the week of September 29 - October 3, VN-Index decreased by 6.89 points to 1,645.82 points. Market liquidity decreased by 10.6% compared to the previous week, averaging 814 million shares/session. Cash flow gradually weakened after the hot growth period, making short-term surfing opportunities increasingly narrow. This also reflects the cautious sentiment of investors.
The market recorded a state of “green on the outside, red on the inside”, when the index was supported mainly by some pillar stocks such as VIC, VRE, LPB. VIC alone contributed more than 12 points to the VN-Index, while most other stocks declined. If the impact from these codes were excluded, the index could have fallen to the 1,620 - 1,630 point range.
The cash flow is not sustainable, when there were signs of recovery in the banking group in the middle of the week with STB, MBB, TCB, but it was quickly wiped out at the end of the week. This group of investors continued to put strong net selling pressure of thousands of billions of VND. Accumulated after 5 sessions, foreign investors net sold 7,586 billion VND.
According to experts, the strong net withdrawal of foreign investors may be related to the portfolio restructuring activities of frontier market funds before Vietnam was upgraded. After a long series of net selling, the foreign ownership ratio on HoSE has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 13 years, only 15.61%.
According to data from Vietnam Financial Data and Information Joint Stock Company (FiinGroup), just counting order matching on HOSE, foreign investors net sold a record of more than VND 77,100 billion in the first 9 months of 2025, exceeding the net selling scale of the whole year of 2024 of VND 73,100 billion.
Experts say that next week, the stock market may fluctuate according to information about the upgrade results.
Pinetree Securities Joint Stock Company believes that if the upgrade has not been announced, the market may face a prolonged medium-term correction, but this probability is not high. In a positive scenario, Vietnam is upgraded, new money can flow strongly into banking, securities and real estate stocks, creating momentum to help VN-Index move towards the 1,700 point mark.
According to BETA Securities Joint Stock Company, investors should maintain a patient mentality, avoid chasing purchases, keep the proportion of stocks at a moderate level, prioritize codes with good fundamentals, attractive valuations and positive profit prospects. The fluctuations can be used to restructure the portfolio.
According to a report by Saigon - Hanoi Securities Joint Stock Company (SHS), VN-Index ended the week down 0.9% to 1,645.82 points, continuing to accumulate in a narrow range below the resistance zone of 1,700 points. Market breadth was inclined to decrease, liquidity was low, foreign investors net sold 7,267 billion VND on HOSE. VN-Index is in a less positive accumulation trend, it may retest the support zone of 1,600 - 1,620 points before forming a new trend.
SHS assesses that after the end of the third quarter, the market will enter a period of re-evaluating fundamental factors, macroeconomic information and third quarter business results. Together with information published by the market rating organization FTSE Russell, this will be an important basis for orienting investment strategies in October and the fourth quarter of 2025.
At the regular press conference for the third quarter, Deputy Minister of Finance Nguyen Duc Chi said that Vietnam has been implementing many synchronous solutions to develop the stock market in a sustainable, stable and transparent manner. This is a key requirement in the capital and stock market development strategy approved by the Government.
According to the leaders of the Ministry of Finance, the legal framework for the stock market is increasingly perfect, creating a foundation for sustainable development. Governance, organization and supervision are implemented closely, in coordination with international organizations. The Ministry of Finance and the State Securities Commission have proactively worked, provided information and evidence so that international agencies have a basis for objective and transparent assessment of the Vietnamese market.
Deputy Minister Nguyen Duc Chi emphasized that the final decision is under the authority of international organizations, but Vietnam will continue to closely coordinate, build trust and promote the upgrading process. “Upgrading is not a one-time goal, but a continuous process that needs to be maintained in the long term. The ultimate goal is to develop a stable, transparent market, effectively supporting the economy , businesses and medium- and long-term capital markets,” said Mr. Chi.
In recent times, many solutions have been implemented to meet the upgrading criteria and create more favorable conditions for foreign investors. In the assessment in March, Vietnam met 7/9 mandatory criteria. The remaining criteria have been completed by the management agency recently.
The Ministry of Finance issued Circular 68, adding regulations allowing foreign institutional investors to place orders to buy shares without having to have sufficient funds in advance. The Government also issued Decree 245, abolishing regulations allowing the general meeting of shareholders or the charter of a public company to decide on a maximum foreign ownership ratio lower than the prescribed level, helping to expand market access for foreign investors.
At the same time, the State Bank issued Circular 25, adding regulations allowing the opening and use of payment accounts for non-resident foreign investors when indirectly investing in Vietnam. The Circular took effect from August 31, demonstrating Vietnam's determination to remove legal bottlenecks and create an open environment for the stock market.
In a recent comment, Vietcap Securities Joint Stock Company expressed confidence that FTSE Russell will announce positive results for Vietnam on October 8. If upgraded, about 30 stocks could be added to the portfolios of index funds, with passive capital flows expected to reach at least $1 billion during the implementation process.
While the Vietnamese stock market has been slowing down to wait for information on the upgrade, developments on international exchanges have been more exciting, especially in the US - where Wall Street has been hitting new highs amid the government shutdown and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon cut interest rates.
Wall Street continues to hit new highs amid political turmoil
US stock markets ended a volatile week as investors continued to bet on the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon cut interest rates.
Despite the US government entering its third day of shutdown due to budget impasse, key indexes maintained their upward momentum and continuously set new highs.
At the end of the trading session on October 3, the S&P 500 index increased slightly by 0.01% to 6,715.79 points, but still marked a new record high. The Dow Jones index also reached a peak when it increased by 0.51% to 46,758.28 points. The Nasdaq Composite index alone decreased by 0.28% to 22,780.51 points after the technology stocks group was under pressure to correct.
The biggest selling pressure came from Applied Materials, which fell 2.7% after the semiconductor maker forecast a $600 million decline in revenue for fiscal 2026. Tesla also lost 1.4%. Utilities rose 1.2%, leading the S&P 500 higher.
The September 2025 jobs report was not released due to the US government shutdown, but investors still closely watched data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showing that the service sector employment index declined for the fourth consecutive month - a signal that reinforced expectations that the Fed will continue to ease monetary policy.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders are almost certain the Fed will cut interest rates by another 0.25 percentage point at this October meeting, and the probability of another cut in December has increased to 84%.
Despite the US federal government shutdown entering its third day, the US stock market has maintained its upward momentum. According to analysts, investors often "ignore" shutdowns because they are usually short-lived and have little long-term impact on the economy. However, if the budget stalemate persists, the disruption of economic data could complicate the Fed's policy decision-making process.
“The issue is timing,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. “If the shutdown continues for a long time, the data collection for key reports will be slowed or distorted.”
This weekend's session marked the end of an impressive week with all three Wall Street indexes rising. Specifically, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both rose 1.1%, while the Nasdaq rose 1.3% for the week.
Investors were optimistic from the beginning of the week (September 29-30) despite the imminent risk of a government shutdown. The session on September 30 saw the Dow Jones set a new record high of 46,397.89 points thanks to expectations of a Fed rate cut and a wave of investment in artificial intelligence (AI) continuing to support the market.
As the US government officially shut down on October 1, the market did not lose its upward momentum. The October 1 session still recorded green for all three key indexes, led by healthcare stocks, after Pfizer reached an agreement with the Trump administration to reduce drug prices in the Medicaid program, helping Biogen and Thermo Fisher stocks increase by 10.9% and 9.4%, respectively.
By October 2, the market had continued to soar, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new records, with investors largely convinced that the Fed would be forced to act more cautiously amid the economic risks posed by government shutdowns and a weak labor market.
Experts say the outlook for the US stock market in the coming time still depends largely on the Fed's interest rate policy and political developments in Washington. If the government shutdown lasts longer and weakens economic data further, the Fed will likely continue to lower interest rates to support growth.
“In the short term, interest rates and investment flows into strategic sectors such as AI will continue to support the market. However, if the budget impasse persists, this could significantly change the economic outlook and market direction in the coming weeks,” said Saxo expert Neil Wilson.
Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/thi-truong-chung-khoan-than-trong-truoc-ky-xet-nang-hang-20251005122212859.htm
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