The smartphone market in 2026 faces difficulties due to the "storm" of rising component prices.

(Dan Tri Newspaper) - The global smartphone industry is preparing to face a challenging year.

The iPhone 16 was the best-selling smartphone in the third quarter (Photo: The Anh).

According to the latest Global Smartphone Shipment Tracking and Forecast report from Counterpoint Research, the 2026 shipment forecast has been revised down by 2.6 percentage points compared to previous expectations.

Specifically, the market is expected to see a 2.1% decline in total shipments. The core reason for this decline does not stem from demand, but from the component cost crisis, particularly the skyrocketing price of memory.

Red alert from production costs

The shortage and rising price of digital memory (DRAM) is creating unprecedented pressure on the cost of materials (BoM). Specifically, the budget phone segment is being hit hardest, with production costs increasing by up to 25%.

Meanwhile, the mid-range segment increased by approximately 15% and the high-end segment increased by approximately 10%.

MS research director Hwang commented: "We are seeing the sub-$200 segment being hit hardest, with raw material costs having increased by 20-30% since the beginning of the year."

More concerningly, according to a report on next-generation AI memory solutions, memory prices could continue to rise by another 40% by the end of Q2 2026, pushing up material costs by an additional 8-15%.

China faces difficulties, while Apple and Samsung remain strong.

The burden of costs is not evenly distributed among manufacturers. Major players like Honor, Oppo, and Vivo are experiencing the most significant downward adjustments in their shipment forecasts.

Because they rely heavily on the low- and mid-range segments, they are forced to cut back on their product range to maintain profitability.

Meanwhile, international giants like Apple and Samsung, thanks to their large scale, product portfolios focused on the high-end segment, and strong feature integration capabilities, are considered well-positioned to weather this "storm" in the next few quarters.

To cope with rising input costs, the market is witnessing a clear shift in the strategies of companies:

Soaring prices: Passing costs on to consumers is inevitable. The global average selling price (ASP) is projected to rise 6.9% by 2026 (much higher than the 3.9% forecast in September).

Downsizing: Senior analyst Shenghao Bai revealed a widespread trend: "To mitigate risk, companies are quietly downgrading other components such as camera modules, removing periscope lenses, and reducing screen and audio quality to compensate for memory costs."

Product line restructuring: Low-margin, budget-friendly models are being phased out. Instead, manufacturers are focusing on encouraging users to upgrade to "Pro" versions with more innovative designs.

Senior analyst Yang Wang warned: "In the low-price segment, sharp price increases are unsustainable. If consumers don't accept the new prices, manufacturers will be forced to discontinue that product line. This is why we're seeing a significant decrease in the volume of low-cost smartphones."

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/cong-nghe/thi-truong-smartphone-2026-gap-kho-do-con-bao-gia-linh-kien-20251217145121437.htm