(MPI) - According to the report on the socio-economic situation in the fourth quarter and the year 2024 announced by the General Statistics Office, the Ministry of Planning and Investment on January 6, 2025, under the leadership of the Party; the accompaniment of the National Assembly; the proactive, flexible, drastic and effective direction and management of the Government and the Prime Minister; the close coordination of ministries, branches and localities; the solidarity, trust and support of the people and the business community; the socio-economic situation of our country in 2024 continues to have a clear recovery trend, with growth gradually improving month by month and quarter by quarter, inflation lower than the target, major balances are ensured, results in many important areas reach and exceed the set targets, being a bright spot in economic growth in the region and in the world.
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| Overview of the Press Conference to announce socio -economic statistics for the fourth quarter and 2024. Photo: MPI |
Gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is estimated to increase by 7.55% over the same period last year, only lower than the fourth quarters of 2017 and 2018 in the 2011-2024 period, maintaining the trend of each quarter being higher than the previous quarter (the first quarter increased by 5.98%, the second quarter increased by 7.25%, and the third quarter increased by 7.43%). Of which, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 2.99%, contributing 4.86% to the total added value of the whole economy; the industry and construction sector increased by 8.35%, contributing 44.03%; the service sector increased by 8.21%, contributing 51.11%. Regarding GDP use in the fourth quarter of 2024, final consumption increased by 7.54% over the same period last year; asset accumulation increased by 7.98%; Exports of goods and services increased by 11.35%; imports of goods and services increased by 13.49%.
GDP in 2024 is estimated to increase by 7.09% over the previous year, only lower than the growth rates of 2018, 2019 and 2022 in the 2011-2024 period. In the total added value growth of the whole economy, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 3.27%, contributing 5.37%; the industry and construction sector increased by 8.24%, contributing 45.17%; the service sector increased by 7.38%, contributing 49.46%.
Agricultural, forestry and fishery production in 2024 will take place in complicated weather conditions, with severe heat and drought in the Central Highlands and Central regions, and saltwater intrusion in the southern provinces, especially the impact of storm No. 3 on the northern localities. However, thanks to the participation of the entire political system in preventing and promptly overcoming the impacts of natural disasters, storms and floods, agricultural, forestry and fishery production in 2024 will maintain positive growth, meeting domestic and export demand.
Industrial production in the fourth quarter of 2024 continued its positive growth trend, with businesses stepping up production to prepare goods to meet year-end consumer demand, so the industrial production index increased by 7.9% over the same period last year. Overall, in 2024, the industrial production index is estimated to increase by 8.4% over the previous year, the highest increase since 2020.
Of which, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 9.6% (increased by 1.5% in 2023), contributing 8.4 percentage points to the overall growth rate; the electricity production and distribution industry increased by 9.5%, contributing 0.8 percentage points; the water supply, waste and wastewater management and treatment industry increased by 10.7%, contributing 0.2 percentage points; the mining industry decreased by 6.5%, reducing 1.0 percentage point to the overall growth rate.
The total number of enterprises entering and re-entering the market in 2024 will reach 233.4 thousand enterprises, an increase of 7.1% compared to 2023; 197.9 thousand enterprises will withdraw from the market, an increase of 14.7%.
In 2024, the whole country will have more than 157.2 thousand newly registered enterprises with a total registered capital of more than 1,547.0 trillion VND and a total registered number of nearly 1,001.5 thousand employees, down 1.4% in the number of enterprises, down 1.8% in registered capital and down 5.4% in the number of employees compared to the previous year. The average registered capital of a newly established enterprise in 2024 will reach 9.8 billion VND, down 0.4% compared to 2023. The total registered capital added to the economy in 2024 will be nearly 2,025.9 trillion VND, up 3.6% over the same period in 2023.
Trade, consumer services, transportation, and tourism activities will continue to grow in 2024. In general, in 2024, total retail sales of goods and consumer services revenue will increase by 9.0% over the previous year; passenger transport will increase by 8.3% and turnover will increase by 11.6%; freight transport will increase by 14.0% and turnover will increase by 11.8%; international visitors to Vietnam in 2024 will reach nearly 17.6 million, up 39.5% over the previous year and equal to 97.6% of 2019 - the year before the Covid-19 pandemic; the number of Vietnamese people leaving the country will reach 5.3 million, up 5.5% over 2023.
In 2024, the State Bank has operated monetary policy proactively, flexibly, promptly and effectively, contributing to supporting economic growth. The insurance market has gradually recovered and developed according to the set orientation and goals. The stock market has operated stably, with the stock market capitalization increasing by 20.6% compared to the end of 2023.
Total social investment capital in 2024 at current prices is estimated at VND 3,692.1 trillion, up 7.5% over 2023, higher than the 6.6% increase in the same period in 2023, reflecting the positive recovery of production and business activities this year compared to the previous year. Foreign direct investment capital realized in Vietnam in 2024 is estimated at USD 25.35 billion, up 9.4% over the previous year, reaching the highest level since 2020.
Total social investment capital in 2024, at current prices, is estimated at VND 3,692.1 trillion, up 7.5% over the previous year (quarter IV/2024 is estimated at VND 1,274.5 trillion, up 8.7%), including: State sector capital reaching VND 1,019.3 trillion, accounting for 27.6% of total capital and up 5.3%; non-State sector reaching VND 2,064.2 trillion, accounting for 55.9% and up 7.7%; foreign direct investment sector reaching VND 608.6 trillion, accounting for 16.5% and up 10.6%.
State budget revenue in 2024 is estimated to increase by 16.2% compared to the previous year. State budget expenditure is estimated to increase by 5.7% compared to 2023, ensuring the needs of socio-economic development, national defense, security, State management, payment of due debts as well as timely payment to subjects according to regulations.
Total state budget revenue in 2024 is estimated at VND 2,037.5 trillion, equal to 119.8% of the annual estimate and up 16.2% over the previous year. Of which: domestic revenue is estimated at VND 1,706.4 trillion, equal to 118.1% of the annual estimate and up 16.0% over the previous year; revenue from crude oil is estimated at VND 58.6 trillion, equal to 127.5% of the annual estimate and down 5.4% over the previous year; budget balance revenue from import-export activities is estimated at VND 271.3 trillion, equal to 133.0% of the annual estimate and up 24.1% over the previous year.
Total state budget expenditure in 2024 is estimated at VND 1,830.8 trillion, equal to 86.4% of the annual estimate and up 5.7% over the previous year. Of which, regular expenditure in 2024 is estimated at VND 1,190.7 trillion, equal to 94.5% of the annual estimate and up 12.5% over the previous year; development investment expenditure is estimated at VND 529.1 trillion, equal to 78.1% and down 8.7%; debt interest payment is VND 108.3 trillion, equal to 97.0% and up 20.2%.
In 2024, the total import and export turnover of goods reached 786.29 billion USD, an increase of 15.4% over the previous year, of which exports increased by 14.3%; imports increased by 16.7%. The trade balance of goods had a surplus of 24.77 billion USD.
In 2024, the global commodity market is affected by the complicated developments of the world's political, economic and social situation. Conflicts escalate in Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East. Strategic competition between major countries is fierce. Trade protectionism and trade barriers tend to increase, making the fragmentation of the global economy increasingly serious. Domestically, production of goods and services continues to grow steadily, ensuring to meet people's consumption needs and serve exports. The average CPI in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased by 2.87% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. For the whole year of 2024, the CPI increased by 3.63% compared to the previous year, achieving the target set by the National Assembly. The producer price index of agriculture, forestry and fishery, industry and services, the price index of raw materials and fuels used for production and the export price index of goods in the fourth quarter and 2024 tend to increase compared to the same period last year, while the import price index of goods decreases according to the world market.
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| Director General of the General Statistics Office Nguyen Thi Huong speaks. Photo: MPI |
According to the report, in the context of the unpredictable fluctuations in the world economic and political situation, with the participation of the entire political system, the timely, drastic and close direction and administration of the Government, the Prime Minister and the efforts of all levels, sectors, localities, the business community and the people of the whole country, in 2024, our country's economy achieved a growth rate of 7.09%, exceeding the set target of 6-6.5%. This is a very positive growth rate, demonstrating the high determination, great efforts, drastic, timely and effective actions of the entire political system in directing, administering and implementing socio-economic development tasks in the face of rapid and unusual fluctuations in the region and the world, as well as in the face of damage caused by natural disasters, storms and floods causing great damage to production, business and the lives of the people in our country.
The positive results of 2024 are an important premise for the economy to accelerate and reach the finish line in 2025, completing the highest targets in the 5-year Socio-Economic Development Plan for the period 2021-2025. This is a big challenge, requiring the joint efforts and consensus of the entire political system, businesses and people of the whole country.
Accordingly, the report sets out a number of key tasks that need to be focused on, such as proactively and flexibly managing monetary policy, stabilizing exchange rates and interest rates; controlling prices and markets; ensuring major balances of the economy. Closely monitoring developments in the world situation, developments in fiscal and monetary policies of countries that are Vietnam's main trade and investment partners; proactively having plans to promptly respond to emerging situations. Continuously updating forecast scenarios on growth and inflation to have timely responses to maintain stability and growth of the economy in the coming year. Closely monitoring price developments of essential commodities, especially petroleum products, developing plans to regulate supply, limit sudden price increases to minimize the impact on inflation and people's lives.
Ministries, sectors and localities promote the implementation and disbursement of public investment capital, quickly and effectively deploy large-scale investment tasks and projects, and increase the attraction of high-quality foreign investment capital. Strongly implement provincial, regional and sectoral planning to create new momentum and capacity for economic development in 2025. Focus on promoting the construction progress of important national projects, key works, and important transport infrastructure; promote investment resources of corporations and state-owned enterprises; attract and effectively use resources from the private sector and foreign sectors. Have preferential and competitive policies, create favorable business conditions to attract large, key national projects, high-tech projects, etc., attract strategic investors and multinational corporations to invest, set up headquarters and establish R&D centers in Vietnam.
Boost consumption, focus on developing the domestic market. Effectively implement trade promotion programs, promote the distribution of goods through digital platforms and e-commerce to expand domestic consumption. Encourage Vietnamese people to prioritize using Vietnamese goods. Focus on investing in modernizing the distribution system in rural and mountainous areas to increase the consumption of Vietnamese goods, promote the implementation of activities to stimulate domestic consumption in localities with unique and advantageous products. Improve the quality of services, especially food, accommodation, and domestic tourism services; increase the attraction of international tourists.
Strengthening solutions to support businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, to access preferential loans at reasonable interest rates; supporting cost reduction for businesses, enhancing access to state support resources; cutting and simplifying regulations related to business activities; promoting digital transformation and innovation in businesses; providing market information and legal support in international trade and investment, updating full, accurate and regular information on regulations and policies of major export markets such as Europe, the US, Canada, Japan, etc.
Promote and create breakthroughs for new growth drivers, promote the development of green economy, circular economy, e-commerce, new business models. Support businesses in accessing and applying artificial intelligence, digital transformation, green transformation, circulation, low carbon emissions, resource saving, sustainable development (ESG) ...; promote the export of green, environmentally friendly products.
Strengthening disease prevention and control; proactively developing plans to prevent natural disasters, warning of floods, landslides, impacts of drought and saltwater intrusion to minimize damage to production and people's lives./.
Source: https://www.mpi.gov.vn/portal/Pages/2025-1-6/Tinh-hinh-kinh-te--xa-hoi-nam-2024-tiep-tuc-xu-huodqpcap.aspx
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