Gold stagnates ahead of Fed meeting, exchange rate cools but remains at ceiling

Investors are now looking ahead to the Fed meeting, which begins in a few hours. While the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged, markets are paying particular attention to policy guidance amid tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

The USD exchange rate at commercial banks continued to be anchored at the regulated ceiling throughout the day of June 18. At Vietcombank , the USD/VND exchange rate is currently trading at 25,883 VND/USD (buying by transfer) and 26,243 VND/USD (selling), down 4 VND/USD compared to yesterday. The above decrease corresponds to the adjustment of the central exchange rate of the State Bank, down to 24,994 VND/USD. The reference exchange rate at the State Bank's transaction office is 23,795-26,193 VND/USD (buying-selling).

The “ceiling” anchoring of the exchange rate has been going on since the end of last week. The USD exchange rate has remained high despite the recent downward trend of the DXY index. According to analysts from FiinRatings, the USD/VND exchange rate has remained high due to the strong increase in domestic USD demand from businesses and the State Treasury, making the supply even more limited. The SBV’s flexible adjustment of the central exchange rate, setting new record highs, has allowed the market more room for self-regulation.

The USD has recovered, at times approaching the 99-point mark. The DXY index is currently around 98.7 points. The EUR/USD exchange rate has cooled down, significantly reducing the heat of the EUR/VND exchange rate. The EUR selling rate at Vietcombank has dropped to 30,758 VND per 1 euro.

In contrast to the recovery of the USD, the world gold price fluctuated around. In the international market, the spot gold price slightly retreated to around 3,380 USD/ounce, after reaching a peak of nearly 3,420 USD at the end of last week. Tensions between Israel and Iran entered the sixth day, with confirmed airstrikes near Tehran and the risk of US involvement after an emergency meeting between President Donald Trump and his national security team.

Investors fear the conflict could escalate into a wider regional war, leading to global economic instability. In a post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump raised geopolitical tensions by demanding Iran's "unconditional surrender" and threatening to attack Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Meanwhile, investors are focused on the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, which will take place early Thursday morning. According to forecasts, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. However, the market is still paying special attention to policy guidance amid persistent tariff and geopolitical uncertainty at the meeting scheduled to take place in a few hours.

 

Investors are betting more on the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in mid-September 2025.

Investors are betting more on the Fed cutting rates at its September 18 meeting, although the change is not dramatic. The market now sees a 54.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut, up from 51% last week.

Before the fluctuations in the world market, the price of SJC gold bars decreased slightly in the early morning but recovered later. SJC gold bars closed at 117.6 million VND/tael (buy) and 119.6 million VND/tael (sell).

Source: https://baodautu.vn/vang-chung-lai-truoc-them-hop-fed-ty-gia-ha-nhiet-nhung-van-neo-tran-d307503.html