Factors of exchange rate and interest rate stability will still be guaranteed.

NDO - Updating the forecast that US President Donald Trump has announced a 90-day tax deferral for some countries and its impact on Vietnam, on April 10, Vietcombank Securities Joint Stock Company (VCBS) issued an analysis report stating that macroeconomic stability factors (inflation, exchange rate, interest rate) will still be guaranteed. Pressure and concerns have been reflected in the exchange rate; accordingly, the foreign exchange market will have more favorable developments.

Báo Nhân dân•10/04/2025

As stated in the previous report, VDBS believes that: Vietnam chooses a cautious and long-term approach, the Government prioritizes negotiated solutions instead of direct confrontation, to minimize negative impacts on bilateral trade relations and the domestic economy .

“Vietnam will have more time to negotiate, and with its proven diplomatic strengths over time, further negotiations could turn more positive,” VCBS analysts said.

However, VCBS also noted that although the tax is postponed, the 10% rate will still apply, so the export group will still be more or less negatively affected compared to before. However, domestic consumption demand in the US is still being observed; therefore, the trend of shifting supply to politically stable countries is still the main trend.

In the next 90 days, VCBS believes that Vietnam can still benefit from the trend of shifting supply chains, especially from countries that are subject to higher tariffs than Vietnam. Even further, if the US-China trade tensions are raised with continued retaliation, and Vietnam continues to demonstrate a solid foundation of stability, Vietnam will be an ideal destination for investment capital flows and production and business activities. This is also a factor supporting the foreign exchange market in the coming time.

Accordingly, VCBS expects the foreign exchange market and exchange rates to develop more positively, instead of being under pressure to increase rapidly and strongly as in recent times. According to the latest update (this morning, April 10), the exchange rate at commercial banks is at 25,610/26,000 VND/USD (down 180 VND compared to the previous day), the exchange rate on the free market is 26,120/26,230 VND/USD (unchanged compared to the previous day).

VCBS maintains the view that monetary policy can be managed in the direction of ensuring macroeconomic stability and creating favorable conditions to support businesses. Meanwhile, in addition to the negotiating moves that have been and are being discussed, the Vietnamese Government will continue to focus on and strengthen domestic growth, including: promoting public investment, promoting consumer demand, and services.

Thus, VCBS is completely optimistic and confident in the domestic management and foreign policy of the Vietnamese Government, all aimed at the goal of sustainable growth.

Previously, State Bank Governor Nguyen Thi Hong said that the exchange rate issue is of concern to all businesses after President Donald Trump announced the tax decree. The complicated and unpredictable exchange rate developments were clearly demonstrated after President Trump announced the tax decree, with the exchange rate increasing by 0.6% on the first day. Especially when trade partners retaliate, the financial and monetary market will certainly be complicated every day, every hour.

Governor Nguyen Thi Hong affirmed that the State Bank will closely monitor market developments to operate tools and solutions at the right time and in the right doses, especially considering harmonizing the exchange rate trade-off with the goal of reducing interest rates.

Source: https://nhandan.vn/cac-yeu-to-on-dinh-ty-gia-lai-suat-van-se-duoc-bao-dam-post871402.html