Europe braces for a "fiery" summer

The risk of a heatwave at the 2024 Paris Olympics has organizers “sweating profusely” about the safety of athletes.

A tourist cools off on the street in Rome, Italy. Photo: Euronews

Europe is entering a scorching summer as Germany and northern European countries prepare for unusually high temperatures. Meanwhile, the threat of a heatwave at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games has organizers sweating over the safety of athletes. Spain is preparing for another sweltering summer, releasing new maps to help predict heatwaves more accurately. Cities across the continent are doing everything they can to adapt to extreme heat.

The world has endured 11 straight months of record heat, and sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic have risen to their highest levels in at least 40 years. When it comes to heat waves or extreme weather, no one can predict what lies ahead. But past weather can give forecasters some clues.

“It’s very difficult to predict exactly what the weather will be like, as the weather across Europe is changing with so many different factors,” said Tamsin Green, a meteorologist at Weather & Radar. “It’s likely that the hotspots will be concentrated in southern and eastern Europe.”

Western Europe could see average rainfall in June, followed by above-average rainfall in southern Europe in July. August is likely to be drier and more stable for much of the continent, she added. Many factors are influencing Europe’s weather. For example, the world is currently in a transition period between El Niño and La Niña weather phenomena, which are “very important” in determining global weather and temperature patterns.

Although El Niño is defined as above-average sea surface temperatures and increased rainfall in the eastern and central tropical Pacific , it has global impacts. “Like a domino effect,” explains T. Green, weather in one place can influence conditions on the other side of the planet. If rainfall increases in one part of the world, it decreases elsewhere. Europe, for example, often experiences the remnants of tropical monsoon storms.

Hurricane activity in the Atlantic, during the June-to-November hurricane season, is likely to increase as La Niña conditions develop in the Pacific, putting pressure on storms there. But climate change is playing a big role in the continent’s increasingly hot summers. “The past 10 years have been the hottest on record, with most of that warming occurring in the last 40 years,” says T. Green. “We’ve already seen April 2024 become the 11th consecutive month with the hottest record.”

According to recent data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the EU Copernicus Climate Service (C3S), Europe has been warming at twice the global average since 1991. The continent is “no exception” when it comes to the consequences of climate change, with both agencies warning that Europe needs to do more to cut emissions and transition away from fossil fuels. 23 of the 30 most severe heatwaves on the continent have occurred since 2000 – five in the past three years. The latest five-year average shows that temperatures in Europe are now 2.3°C above pre-industrial levels, compared to 1.3 ^° C above the global average. “As a result, 2024 is likely to be a record hot year given the global trend,” said T. Green.

LAM DIEN

Source: https://www.sggp.org.vn/chau-au-gong-minh-truoc-mua-he-ruc-lua-post742032.html