What is the driving force for VN-Index in 2024?
From the beginning of 2024 to now, the VN-Index has increased by nearly 12% compared to the beginning of the year from around 1,136 points to 1,269 points (closing price on March 5), the market achieved the second best performance in Asia after Japan. The improved macro situation in the context of record low interest rates and the Government's commitment to the development plan of Vietnam's capital market has regained investors' confidence. JP Morgan forecasts that 2024 will be the premise year in a new cycle of both the economy and stocks coming. This financial group believes that the positive scenario is for the VN-Index to reach 1,450 points; the base scenario is at 1,300 points.
JP Morgan's report clearly stated that the positive momentum of the Vietnamese stock market includes market upgrading; strong recovery of production and GDP; disbursement of public investment and continuous FDI inflows into our country. In particular, the picture of the upgraded Vietnamese stock market is becoming increasingly clear, demonstrated by the determination of the Government .
Will 25 billion USD be poured into Vietnamese stocks?
On the morning of February 28, at the Conference on the implementation of the task of developing the stock market (TTCK) in 2024 chaired by the Prime Minister with specific goals and actions for the market upgrade. A Finance Director shared at the conference "The World Bank estimates that upgrading the stock market could bring up to 25 billion USD of new investment capital from international investors to the Vietnamese market by 2030 under some important conditions".
According to analysts at JP Morgan, the Vietnamese government is currently finalizing the removal of pre-trade margin requirements in parallel with the launch of the KRX system. The State Securities Commission said the system upgrade is in the final testing phase before being deployed in the first quarter of this year. In addition, the Vietnam Securities Depository is submitting a proposal to remove pre-trade margin requirements and implement the central counterparty (CCP) model with the new system. This is one of the important criteria that the Vietnamese market is lacking. If this bottleneck is resolved, FTSE may re-rank Vietnam.
Which stocks are of interest?
With billions of dollars pouring into the market when Vietnam is upgraded, stocks that meet the requirements of capitalization, free float capitalization and liquidity of emerging markets will be the destination of foreign capital flows. In particular, MSN shares of Masan Group, a leading enterprise in the retail consumer industry in Vietnam, are one of JP Morgan's top priorities when analyzing the prospects of the Vietnamese stock market in 2024.
Previously, JP Morgan also released an analysis report and valued MSN at VND102,000/share in 2024, with an average annual EPS growth rate of 36% in the 2022-2025 period. With this valuation, MSN shares can achieve growth potential of up to 35% compared to the price range of VND75,700/share on March 5. According to JPMorgan, with its leading position in a large and potential retail market, along with capital allocation efforts focused on core consumer and retail segments, and the development of the modern consumer market, MSN shares have become one of the best representatives of Vietnam's attractive consumer story.
Recently, Masan's MSN shares have had a strong breakthrough in trading liquidity. Specifically, on February 29, the trading volume of this stock exceeded 5 times the average of the last 5 sessions, reaching 7.83 and 8.29 million units, respectively, with a total trading value of 588 and 586 billion VND. The increase in both volume and price of MSN continued on March 5 with a ceiling increase and a sudden liquidity of nearly 1,000 billion VND, closing at 75,700 VND. This is a sign of smart money flowing into the stock, pushing the stock price above the 3-month peak.
With strong confirmation of smart money flow and positive trends of Vietnam market being upgraded along with Masan Group's leading position in the retail consumer industry, MSN stock is a good investment opportunity with high profit potential.
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