Positive tariff negotiations, $200 billion floor at 3-year peak

Expectations of US-Vietnam trade negotiations and policies to boost the domestic economy open up prospects for sustainable growth.

Exciting developments

The Vietnamese stock market closed the trading week of June 16-20 with many positive signals, with the VN-Index continuing to maintain around the 3-year peak at 1,350 points. The overall uptrend was still consolidated, with an increase of nearly 260 points (equivalent to an increase of 24%) from the bottom on April 9 (1,090 points).

During the week, VN-Index increased by nearly 35 points (+2.6%) compared to the previous week. The average total trading value reached nearly 1 billion USD per session last week, reflecting strong cash flow and optimistic investor sentiment.

Cash flow in the week of June 16-20 flexibly rotated between industry groups, creating profit opportunities for both short-term and long-term investors. Banking stocks continued to be the focus, with a series of codes such as MBBank , Techcombank, Sacombank recording strong capitalization increases.

Notably, MBBank achieved a record capitalization of over VND 150,000 billion, MBB shares also reached a historical peak of VND 25,800/share thanks to the expectation that Q2/2025 profit will grow by 23% over the same period, according to the forecast of VCBS Securities Company.

The real estate and construction group also made a breakthrough, with large codes such as Vingroup , Novaland... benefiting from the policy of boosting public investment and the prospect of recovering the real estate market. In addition, the retail, technology and steel industries also contributed to maintaining the general growth momentum.

Vietnam-US trade negotiations with positive developments. Photo: MOIT

The market’s positivity also comes from the easing of concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Although the Iran-Israel conflict still poses risks, the impact on the Vietnamese stock market is currently considered short-term. In fact, the VN-Index often recovers quickly after similar geopolitical shocks.

In addition, expectations of positive trade negotiations between Vietnam and the US have strengthened investor confidence.

Domestic macroeconomic policies, with a GDP growth target of 8% or more in 2025 and a high credit growth plan of 16% in the system, continue to be important drivers.

However, net selling pressure from foreign investors is still present, although it is not enough to restrain the general upward trend. Domestic investors play a pivotal role, accounting for more than 70% of market liquidity, ensuring stability even when foreign investors are net sellers.

Cash flow trends and market outlook

Globally, money flows continue to seek opportunities in many emerging markets such as Vietnam, thanks to the loose monetary policies of many central banks.

In Vietnam, the banking system's liquidity is abundant, reflected in the sharp decline in overnight interest rates on the open market, creating favorable conditions for cash flows into financial investment channels, especially securities. The government has also boosted public investment, with a series of large infrastructure projects being implemented, stimulating economic growth and supporting industries such as real estate, construction, and materials.

Positive business results and impressive restructuring of many listed enterprises are important factors in strengthening investor confidence, such as the cases of Novaland (NVL) and Hoang Anh Gia Lai (HAG).

Hoang Anh Gia Lai has recorded a significant reduction in debt from a peak of more than VND30 trillion to the current VND7 trillion, while recording positive profits.

Similarly, Thanh Cong Textile (TCM) achieved a 1% increase in revenue in May 2025 and a 9% increase in after-tax profit over the same period, completing 50% of the annual plan. Such recovery stories are spreading, creating momentum for the market.

According to Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Market Strategy Department, VnDirect Securities Analysis Division, the trading week of June 23-27 will be the period of "testing supply" at the peak of 1,350 points. If VN-Index holds firm, the short-term uptrend will be consolidated, with the goal of conquering the 1,380-1,400 point range.

However, Mr. Hinh recommends that investors maintain a balanced portfolio, prioritizing groups of stocks with good liquidity and less affected by geopolitical risks, such as retail, technology and real estate.

In terms of medium and long-term prospects, the Vietnamese stock market is facing a great opportunity. The forward P/E valuation of the VN-Index is at 11.6 times, significantly lower than the 5-year average, making the market attractive to foreign investors. The prospect of upgrading the market according to the FTSE Russell classification framework could attract more foreign capital inflows in the third quarter of 2025.

Positive announcements of US-Vietnam trade negotiations, along with stable tariff policies, will support key export industries such as textiles, seafood and electronics.

The GDP growth target of 8% or more, combined with loose fiscal and monetary policies, creates a solid foundation for the stock market to break out.

However, risks still exist, especially from Middle East conflicts that could push up oil prices, affecting production costs and corporate profit margins. This is a factor that many securities companies warn investors to maintain tight risk management, avoiding chasing short-term hot surges.

The current smooth cash flow between industry groups is a positive signal, but we need to be cautious with the possibility of cumulative correction when VN-Index approaches strong resistance levels.

With abundant liquidity, supportive macro policies and positive trade negotiation expectations, the Vietnamese stock market is on the rise. The VN-Index could soon surpass the 1,400-point mark if it can maintain its current momentum.

Vietnamnet.vn

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/dam-phan-thue-quan-tich-cuc-san-200-ty-usd-tren-dinh-3-nam-2413612.html