Expectations for US-Vietnam trade negotiations and domestic economic stimulus policies open up prospects for sustainable growth.
The situation is very dynamic.
The Vietnamese stock market closed the trading week of June 16-20 with many positive signals, with the VN-Index continuing to maintain around its 3-year peak at 1,350 points. The overall upward trend remained strong, with an increase of nearly 260 points (equivalent to a 24% increase) from the low point on April 9 (1,090 points).
During the week, the VN-Index increased by nearly 35 points (+2.6%) compared to the previous week. The average total trading value reached nearly 1 billion USD per session last week, reflecting strong capital inflows and optimistic investor sentiment.
Cash flow during the week of June 16-20 fluctuated flexibly across sectors, creating profit opportunities for both short-term and long-term investors. Banking stocks continued to be the focus, with several stocks such as MBBank , Techcombank, and Sacombank recording significant increases in market capitalization.
Notably, MBBank reached a record market capitalization exceeding VND 150,000 billion, and its MBB shares also hit a historical peak of VND 25,800/share thanks to expectations of a 23% year-on-year increase in Q2/2025 profits, according to forecasts by VCBS Securities Company.
The real estate and construction sector also surged, with major stocks like Vingroup and Novaland benefiting from policies boosting public investment and the prospect of a real estate market recovery. In addition, the retail, technology, and steel sectors also contributed to maintaining the overall upward trend.
Vietnam-US trade negotiations are progressing positively. Photo: MOIT
The market's positive sentiment also stems from the easing of concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Although the Iran-Israel conflict still poses potential risks, its impact on the Vietnamese stock market is currently considered short-term. In fact, the VN-Index usually recovers quickly after similar geopolitical shocks.
In addition, expectations of positive trade negotiations between Vietnam and the US have boosted investor confidence.
Domestic macroeconomic policies, with a target of 8% or higher GDP growth in 2025 and a plan for high credit growth of 16% within the system, continue to be important drivers.
However, net selling pressure from foreign investors remains, although it is not strong enough to curb the overall upward trend. Domestic investors play a pivotal role, accounting for over 70% of market liquidity, ensuring stability even when foreign investors are net sellers.
Cash flow trends and market outlook
Globally, capital flows continue to seek opportunities in many emerging markets such as Vietnam, thanks to the loose monetary policies of many central banks.
In Vietnam, the banking system's liquidity is abundant, as evidenced by the sharp decline in overnight interest rates in the open market, creating favorable conditions for capital flows into financial investment channels, especially securities. The government is also boosting public investment, with a series of large infrastructure projects being implemented, stimulating economic growth and supporting sectors such as real estate, construction, and materials.
The positive business results and impressive restructuring of many listed companies are important factors in strengthening investor confidence, as in the cases of Novaland (NVL) and Hoang Anh Gia Lai (HAG).
Hoang Anh Gia Lai has recorded a significant reduction in debt from a peak of over 30 trillion VND to the current 7 trillion VND, while also achieving positive profits.
Similarly, Thanh Cong Textile (TCM) achieved a 1% increase in revenue and a 9% increase in after-tax profit in May 2025 compared to the same period last year, completing 50% of its annual plan. Such recovery stories are spreading, creating momentum for the market.
According to Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Market Strategy Department, Securities Analysis Division, VnDirect, the trading week of June 23-27 will be a "test of supply pressure" at the peak of 1,350 points. If the VN-Index holds firm, the short-term upward trend will be consolidated, with the goal of conquering the 1,380-1,400 point range.
However, Mr. Hinh recommends that investors maintain a balanced portfolio, prioritizing stock groups with good liquidity and less susceptibility to geopolitical risks, such as retail, technology, and real estate.
In terms of medium and long-term prospects, the Vietnamese stock market is facing significant opportunities. The forward P/E valuation of the VN-Index is at 11.6 times, significantly lower than the 5-year average, making the market attractive to foreign investors. The prospect of upgrading the market according to the FTSE Russell classification framework could attract further foreign capital inflows in Q3 2025.
Positive developments in US-Vietnam trade negotiations, along with stable tariff policies, will support key export sectors such as textiles, seafood, and electronics.
A GDP growth target of 8% or higher, combined with loose fiscal and monetary policies, creates a solid foundation for a stock market surge.
However, risks remain, particularly from Middle Eastern conflicts that could drive up oil prices, impacting production costs and corporate profit margins. This is a factor that many securities companies warn investors to consider, emphasizing the need for tight risk management and avoiding chasing short-term price surges.
The current smooth flow of money between sectors is a positive sign, but caution is needed regarding the possibility of a corrective consolidation as the VN-Index approaches strong resistance levels.
With abundant liquidity, supportive macroeconomic policies, and positive trade negotiation expectations, the Vietnamese stock market is on a breakout trajectory. The VN-Index could soon surpass the 1,400-point mark if it maintains its current momentum.
Vietnamnet.vn
Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/dam-phan-thue-quan-tich-cuc-san-200-ty-usd-tren-dinh-3-nam-2413612.html
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