Credit growth drivers in the second half of 2025

Credit in the first half of the year had a breakthrough when the growth of outstanding loans in the whole economy reached nearly 10%, banks expect capital demand to increase during the peak business season.

Credit will increase by 17-18%

MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS) forecasts that credit growth will reach about 17-18% by the end of 2025. Lending activities in the second half of 2025 will likely be driven by three main factors: accelerating public investment disbursement; Resolution 68-NQ/TW enhancing the role and position of the private economic sector and effectively removing legal bottlenecks of real estate projects; aiming to eliminate the "credit room".

According to Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan (Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics), the positive credit growth rate in the first half of this year is not only higher than the same period last year, but also opens up the prospect of achieving the target set by the banking industry for the whole year of 16%. Because in the second half of the year, customers' capital demand is higher during the peak business season.

Mr. Pham Chi Quang, Director of the Monetary Policy Department (State Bank of Vietnam - SBV) said that for Vietnam's economy to achieve 8% growth this year and double digits in the following years, credit is an indispensable driving force. Inflation this year will be controlled according to the set target, so the ability of credit to the economy this year will be large.

However, according to Mr. Quang, the State Bank always controls the inflation target to balance the two goals of inflation and pushing capital into the economy. Therefore, the State Bank will also consider loosening the credit room for banks to have more room for lending.

NIM still tends to narrow

MBS expects that most banks will achieve their credit growth targets in 2025, despite pressure from declining net interest margins (NIMs). As lending rates have continuously decreased to stimulate credit demand, banks’ asset yields have entered a downward trend. This decline has narrowed the industry’s NIMs, as the rate of decline in asset yields has been faster than the decline in cost of funds (COF).

Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Nguyen Thi Hong said that the banking sector is striving to further reduce lending interest rates, contributing to promoting growth. Monetary policy needs to be closely coordinated and synchronized with fiscal policy and other macroeconomic policies, in order to promote sustainable economic growth associated with macroeconomic stability, control inflation and ensure major balances of the economy.

Thanks to the synchronous implementation of solutions, according to the Governor of the State Bank, the lending interest rate level continues to decrease. In June 2025 alone, the average lending interest rate for new loans of commercial banks was around 6.3%/year, down 0.6%/year compared to the end of 2024.

In the interbank market, the State Bank has flexibly operated open market operations, in line with supply and demand developments in the currency market. Regarding exchange rates, the State Bank has also flexibly operated, in line with market conditions and macroeconomic factors.

Assessing the unexpected decline in NIM in the first half of 2025, MBS believes that this is only temporary and will soon improve, as Vietnamese banks still have high potential to protect NIM. Although lending rates are expected to remain lower than in 2024 in the coming quarters, the rapid recovery of home and consumer lending will contribute significantly to the recovery of NIM in the rest of 2025 compared to the first quarter.

In addition, the improvement in demand deposits (CASA) from early 2024, mainly due to the strong recovery in corporate credit, will support maintaining the current low cost of funds in the next 6-9 months.

MBS expects that NIM in the rest of 2025 will not be lower than the level of Q1/2025, but is unlikely to reach the same level as in 2024 due to lower average lending rates and expected unchanged funding costs. Banks that have recorded sharp NIM declines in recent years due to the impact of their loan portfolios, such as VPBank, MB, and Techcombank, are expected to have a milder NIM decline than other banks.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/dong-luc-tang-truong-tin-dung-nua-cuoi-nam-2025-d335316.html