How accurate is the forecast of heavy rain and thunderstorms?

In recent days, our country has been experiencing continuous rain and storms. The northern provinces have been experiencing continuous floods, while the south and Ho Chi Minh City often experience sudden thunderstorms. Weather forecasts are of great interest to the people.

Forecasting thunderstorms and heavy rains in the current context of climate change is quite complicated. The meteorological agency always strives to forecast as accurately as possible so that people can prevent and respond. Photo of tornadoes damaging houses in the West - Photo: KT

Speaking with Tuoi Tre Online , Mr. Le Dinh Quyet - Head of the forecasting department of the Southern Hydrometeorological Station, said that currently, forecasting extreme weather patterns such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, and hail is still quite complicated.

The reason is that these types of weather are often small in scale, appear and dissipate quickly, and are caused by many factors.

Normally, on special weather days such as storms, tropical depressions or tropical convergence zones, it is possible to forecast 2-3 days in advance, or even 5-7 days in advance.

As for the forecast time for rain and storms, it is highly reliable 24 hours in advance. For thunderstorms and tornadoes, the warning time is usually only 2-3 hours in advance, or a few dozen minutes.

"For rain, heavy rain is usually forecasted and warned 24-72 hours in advance, although in many cases it is also possible to give a trend forecast 5-10 days in advance (whether the rain trend will increase or decrease).

But the high reliability of heavy rain forecasts is only 24-48 hours in advance because rain is a random, discontinuous phenomenon with very different spatial and temporal distributions," Mr. Quyet said.

Mr. Quyet added that currently the meteorological agency will forecast rain using technologies such as numerical models and AI to warn 24 hours to several days in advance.

As for forecasts and extremely short warnings a few hours in advance, mainly serving events, point forecasts, detailed forecasts of thunderstorms, lightning, tornadoes, hail, and local heavy rain will be based on lightning location observation data, weather radar, and satellite cloud images for warning.

All news are sent to media agencies, disaster prevention agencies... to grasp prevention plans and inform people.

Regarding the causes of extreme weather phenomena, Mr. Quyet analyzed that there are many causes and factors, usually due to the existence of weather patterns that are opposite in nature (temperature, pressure, humidity...) at the same time or due to disturbances that create instability in the atmosphere.

Mr. Quyet advised that because the weather often changes continuously, in the context of climate change, there are more and more extreme hydrometeorological phenomena, so people also need to regularly monitor forecasts to proactively prevent and mitigate damage caused by natural disasters.

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Source: https://tuoitre.vn/du-bao-mua-to-dong-loc-chinh-xac-duoc-toi-muc-nao-20251007093321044.htm