Robusta coffee prices drop to bottom at $4,510/ton

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) said that the world raw material market was in the red in the past trading week. With 4 consecutive sessions of decline, the MXV-Index fell 2.36% to 2,150 points at the end of the trading day of the week (May 30). Notably, the strong selling pressure in the energy market led to the weakening of the entire market. In the same vein, in the industrial raw material market, many items such as coffee, rubber, etc. fell sharply by more than 5%.

Giá cà phê lao dốc, Robusta chạm mức thấp nhất hơn 6 tháng qua

MXV-Index

Robusta coffee prices fall to 6-month low

At the end of the last trading week, the price of Arabica coffee for July on the New York floor fell for the third consecutive week, losing 5.14%, at $7,550/ton; the price of Robusta coffee for July on the London floor also fell sharply by 5.58%, stopping at $4,510/ton. The price of Arabica coffee hit a 7-week low and Robusta coffee hit a 6.5-month low.

Industrial raw material price list

Robusta is leading the overall downward trend, as new crop shipments from Brazil and Indonesia are putting pressure on prices across the coffee market. Last year, Robusta led Arabica higher, but this year it is dragging Arabica down.

The Arabica harvest follows Robusta in Brazil, and although production is expected to be lower, many agencies and companies have revised their forecasts upward from estimates made earlier this year. Initial reports from brokers indicate good bean size but lower yields.

Robusta coffee prices fell to a six-and-a-half-month low of $4,510 a tonne.

The world's largest producer of washed Arabica coffee, Colombia, is forecast to produce 13.20 million bags of coffee in the current crop year from October 2024 to September 2025, up 4.68% from the previous crop year 2023-24, with the mid-year crop currently being harvested.

In the following crop year from October 2025 to September 2026, weather conditions have so far remained favorable, with production forecast to increase slightly by 2.45% compared to the previous crop year, reaching an estimated total of 12.5 million bags in 2025-26.

The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia also reported that the country's total coffee exports in the first seven months of the current crop year (October 2024 to September 2025) increased by 15.5% compared to the same period last year, reaching a total of 7,920,000 bags.

Coffee exports from Mexico and Central American countries, which mainly produce high-quality washed Arabica coffee, are gradually coming to an end with only four months left until the end of the current crop year (October 2024 to September 2025), with total exports from the countries since the beginning of the crop year reaching 5.88 million bags, up 2.26% compared to the same period last year.

Information on coffee exports from Brazil and Vietnam is still a factor that has restrained the decline of the coffee market in recent times. Specifically, according to the latest preliminary statistics of Cecafe, Brazil's coffee exports in May reached more than 2.6 million 60-kg bags, down 35.8% compared to the same period last year. In addition, according to the Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ), Vietnam's coffee exports from the beginning of the year to May 15 reached over 736,580 tons, down 5.5% compared to the same period last year.

Oil prices extend decline into second week

According to MXV, all five energy commodities were in the red during the past trading week. The decline in oil prices due to market expectations of OPEC+ production decisions continued for the second consecutive week, despite new information about temporary supply disruptions.

At the end of the trading week, WTI oil prices fell 1.2% compared to the trading session on May 23, falling to 60.79 USD/barrel. Meanwhile, Brent oil futures for July delivery fell to 63.9 USD/barrel, down 1.36%.

Energy price list

After nearly two weeks of waiting, OPEC+’s official decision on July production levels was finally made on Saturday, May 31, following an online meeting between the group’s eight key members. As widely expected in the market, OPEC+ set a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July, the third consecutive time this year. This decision is likely to continue the downward trend in oil prices in the early trading sessions this week.

Previously, market speculations had been the main driving force behind 3-4 bearish trading sessions last week.

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol warned in an interview with Bloomberg about a decline in oil demand in China, further reinforcing investors' concerns about the supply-demand gap, especially as the issue of member countries exceeding their OPEC+ quotas continues. On May 29, Kazakhstan's Deputy Energy Minister Alibek Zhamauov said that his country had informed OPEC that it had no intention of reducing oil production, despite pressure from many other member countries to cut.

In addition to concerns about demand in China, the future of oil demand in the US is also uncertain as the macroeconomic situation of the world's largest economy has not shown positive signs.

At the moment, oil demand in the US is still being supported during the peak travel season. Both the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) have released reports of sharp declines in commercial crude oil inventories, contrary to many predictions of increases. In the work week ending on May 23, the EIA reported that commercial crude oil inventories in the US fell by about 2.8 million barrels, while the API reported a decline of 4.24 million barrels, thereby helping to restrain the decline in oil prices throughout the past week.

Also helping to curb the decline were supply disruptions over the past week, notably in Canada and Venezuela. On May 28, Chevron was ordered by the US government to suspend operations at its Venezuelan oil fields, as well as oil exports or expansions. Meanwhile, a wildfire in the Canadian province of Alberta has forced some oil and gas production to temporarily shut down.

Prices of some other goods