Robusta coffee prices increased by 1.52% to 5,129 USD/ton

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) said that green covered the world raw material market in yesterday's trading session (May 13). At the close, the MXV-Index increased by nearly 1.5% to 2,229 points.

Notably, in the industrial raw material market, the prices of two coffee commodities recovered simultaneously in the context of a sharp decline in coffee exports from Brazil. Meanwhile, optimism continued to dominate the energy market following the provisional trade agreement between the US and China.

MXV-Index

Coffee market recovers

At the end of yesterday's trading session, the industrial raw materials market recorded positive developments when 9 out of 10 items increased in price.

In the coffee market, prices of two coffee products recovered simultaneously yesterday. Arabica coffee prices increased by 0.91% to 8,297 USD/ton, while Robusta coffee prices increased by 1.52% to 5,129 USD/ton.

According to the latest report from the Brazilian Coffee Export Council (Cecafé), Brazil's coffee exports fell 27.7% in April compared to April 2024, reaching 3.09 million bags (60 kg each). However, export revenue increased sharply by 41.8% over the same period, reaching 1.34 billion USD. In the first four months of the year, coffee exports decreased by 15.5% compared to the same period, but the turnover reached a record high of 5.23 billion USD.

Arabica coffee prices increased by 0.91% to 8,297 USD/ton, while Robusta coffee prices increased by 1.52% to 5,129 USD/ton.

Márcio Ferreira, president of Cecafé, said the drop in exports was justified given the mid-season period, especially after Brazil exported a record amount in 2024. He added that exports would decline in the next two months, until the Arabica crop begins. Brazil is likely to harvest its largest Robusta crop in history, while coffee production in Vietnam and Indonesia is also forecast to grow compared to last year.

Industrial raw material price list

In addition, dry and warm weather is forecast to dominate Brazil's coffee growing regions over the next 10 days, which could affect the harvest progress and quality of the new crop.

World sugar prices increased sharply on both major exchanges. Sugar price 11 on the ICE US exchange increased by 2.94% to 401 USD/ton, while sugar price on the ICE EU exchange also increased by 2.99% to 509.8 USD/ton. The increase in sugar prices was recorded in the context of global supply continuing to be under pressure.

The latest report from UNICA said that sugarcane crushing output in the Center-South region of Brazil in April reached only 34.25 million tons, down 33% compared to the same period last year, while sugar production also decreased by 39% to 1.58 million tons due to heavy rains that slowed down the harvest and reduced the sugar content in the cane.

In addition, according to statistics from the Brazilian government , sugar exports in April continued to decline by 17.7% compared to the same period last year, reaching only 1.55 million tons. In the first four months of the year, the country's sugar exports decreased by 32.3% compared to the same period last year. This has raised concerns about supply shortages, thereby supporting sugar prices to skyrocket in yesterday's trading session.

Also yesterday, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced its latest forecast for US sugar production for the 2025-2026 crop year, estimated at 8.42 million tons, down slightly from 8.454 million tons in the 2024-2025 crop year. Notably, sugar beet production is forecast to drop to 5.2 million tons, compared to 5.33 million tons last year. In contrast, sugar cane production is expected to increase to 4.1 million tons, up from 3.97 million tons in the previous crop year.

On the import side, USDA forecasts that this figure will decrease to 2.5 million tons in 2025-26, compared to 2.94 million tons in the previous year. Deliveries (domestic consumption) are expected to remain unchanged at 12.25 million tons. With the above factors, ending inventories are expected to decline sharply to 1.4 million tons, significantly lower than the 2 million tons in 2024-25.

Optimism pushes oil prices up

Optimism continued to prevail in the energy market following the interim trade deal between the US and China. This supported a sharp increase in world oil prices yesterday.

At the end of the trading session, Brent oil price stopped at 66.63 USD/barrel, up 2.57%. Similarly, WTI oil price also recorded an increase of up to 2.78%, up to 63.67 USD/barrel. These are the two highest price levels of these two commodities since the end of April.

Energy price list

Overall, the optimistic sentiment in the market was mainly reinforced by the agreement reached on May 10 between the US and China. Although it is only a temporary agreement within 90 days, after a long period of "confrontation" between the two countries, this move is considered a positive signal, especially for US importers, when the demand for imported goods from China is forecast to increase sharply in the next 3 months, leading to an increase in demand for crude oil and fuel.

In addition to the effect of the US-China agreement, the latest inflation figures in the US also contributed to reinforcing a more positive macroeconomic outlook in the world's two largest oil consuming countries.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) in April increased by only 0.2% compared to the previous month and 2.3% compared to the same period last year - the lowest level since March 2021; Core CPI also increased by only 2.8%. These data show that inflation in the US is not as worrying as many previous forecasts, thereby creating speculation about the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (FED) deciding to cut interest rates.

Oil prices were also boosted by new US sanctions on Iranian crude. The US Treasury Department has imposed new sanctions on more than 20 companies accused of being part of a network that transports crude oil from Iran to China. The move comes just days after the fourth round of US-Iran talks on Tehran's controversial nuclear program took place on Sunday (May 11), further complicating the relationship between the two countries.

Prices of some other goods

Agricultural product price list

Metal price list

Ngoc Ngan

Source: https://congthuong.vn/gia-ca-phe-robusta-tang-152-len-5129-usdtan-387460.html