Gold prices will fluctuate strongly

In the trading session on the New York market, ending in the early morning of July 17, the spot gold price fluctuated strongly. After plummeting to 3,320 USD/ounce (equivalent to 106 million VND/tael), the gold price increased sharply to 3,370 USD/ounce (108 million VND) before returning below the threshold of 3,350 USD/ounce as usual in the past two months.

Gold prices rose sharply in the early morning of July 17 as investors worried about the possibility that US President Donald Trump would fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, thereby negatively impacting the market.

A study by Wolfe Research said that if Mr. Trump fired Fed Chairman Powell, the event would be “a mess.” The US Supreme Court will ultimately decide whether Mr. Trump has the right to fire Powell for cause.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold prices could rise to $4,000 an ounce (equivalent to VND128 million per tael) by the end of this year. However, it is also possible that the full-year growth will only be in the single digits, depending on the impact of geopolitical and macroeconomic risks on the main drivers of the precious metal.

Gold prices continue their record rally, rising 26% in US dollar terms in the first half of 2025, posting double-digit returns across all currencies, according to WGC analysts. A combination of a weaker US dollar, volatile interest rates and a highly uncertain geopolitical environment has led to strong investment demand for gold.

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Gold prices are forecast to continue to increase in the second half of 2025. Photo: HH

The constant question of investors on forums today is: Has gold peaked or is it still strong enough to increase in price even higher?

The WGC said gold prices could rise another 5% in the second half of the year if there are no major geopolitical and economic policy uncertainties. But if economic and financial conditions deteriorate, safe-haven demand could increase significantly, pushing gold prices up another 10-15% from current levels.

On the other hand, if conflicts are resolved on a large scale and sustainably, gold prices could fall 12-17% in the second half of the year. However, this possibility is unlikely to happen in the current context.

The WGC also noted that gold’s performance over the first half of 2025 was a record. The price of gold has increased by 27.6% since the beginning of the year as of the morning of July 17. Also in the first half of 2025, spot gold has recorded 26 all-time highs (ATHs), after setting 40 ATHs in 2024.

Gold price scenarios from now until the end of the year

The sharp rise in gold prices, about 16%, in the first half of 2025 is the result of a combination of factors, including a weaker US dollar, fluctuating yields amid expectations of lower interest rates in the future, and rising geopolitical tensions - some of which are directly or indirectly related to US trade policy.

Stronger demand for gold was also driven by increased trading activity on over-the-counter (OTC) markets, exchanges and gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This lifted average daily gold trading volume to $329 billion in the first half of the year, the highest semiannual figure on record. Central banks also contributed by continuing to buy, although not at record levels as in previous quarters.

The US dollar has fallen sharply since the beginning of the year, its worst start to a year since 1973.

In contrast, demand for gold ETFs has been particularly strong. By the end of June, total assets under management (AUM) of global gold ETFs had increased by 41% to $383 billion. The total amount of gold held by these funds increased by 397 tonnes (equivalent to $38 billion) to 3,616 tonnes. This is the highest level since August 2022.

In the second half of 2025, the market generally expects gold prices to move sideways.

Accordingly, US inflation data has shown signs of improvement despite many concerns. US stock prices are forecast to continue to rise, which could attract cash flow and limit the attractiveness of gold.

Analysts said that while some progress is expected in trade talks, the business environment is likely to remain volatile for the rest of the year. Overall, geopolitical tensions – particularly between the US and China – are likely to remain high, contributing to market uncertainty.

Thus, according to WGC's forecast, it is highly likely that gold prices will increase by 0-5% compared to the current level (about 3,350 USD/ounce), thereby bringing the annual increase to 25-30%.

Technical indicators suggest that gold's consolidation phase over the past few months has been a healthy pause, easing previous overbought conditions and potentially setting the stage for fresh upside momentum.

Central bank gold purchases are likely to remain robust in 2025, down slightly from previous records but still well above the pre-2022 average of 500-600 tonnes per year, the WGC said.

However, high gold prices are likely to continue to curb consumer demand and encourage recycling, which “will curb gold’s growth momentum.”

In a lower-case scenario, gold prices could rise another 10-15% in the second half of the year, bringing the full-year gain to around 40%. This would come as the US enters a severe stagflationary period.

In a worst-case scenario, gold prices could fall 12-17% in the second half of the year, ending the year with a positive but low, perhaps single-digit, return. This would occur as trade and geopolitical tensions ease sharply. A strong US dollar would trigger outflows from gold ETFs and dampen overall investment demand.

According to technical analysis, gold prices are quite stable before the "natural" support level of 3,000 USD/ounce.

Domestically, the price of SJC gold bars and gold rings decreased slightly for two consecutive sessions, from VND121.5 million/tael (selling price) to VND120.6 million/tael at the end of the session on July 16 for SJC gold and from VND117.5 million/tael (selling price) to VND116.8 million/tael for SJC gold rings. This morning, July 17, the gold price remained unchanged.

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Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/gia-vang-len-128-trieu-dong-luong-hay-chi-tang-nhe-tu-nay-den-cuoi-nam-2422624.html