Will gold prices continue to increase rapidly in the coming time?

According to Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, the domestic gold price movement is very difficult to predict, especially whether it can return to the peak of 92 million VND/tael or not, because the State Bank of Vietnam still maintains the price stabilization program and controls the difference between domestic and international gold prices. Investors need to monitor whether this policy will continue to be maintained or not.

Regarding gold rings, Mr. Hieu said that the domestic price of gold rings is very high and close to the world price. Therefore, the price of gold rings is unlikely to avoid an upward trend.

“ No one knows whether gold rings will be controlled like gold bars. But at the moment, the price of gold rings has not increased to the point that it can create instability in the market, so this control may not take place in the near future, ” said Mr. Hieu.

However, Mr. Hieu still believes that the price of gold rings climbing close to the price of gold bars, even at times equal to the price of gold bars, is quite unusual.

“ Although we cannot compare gold bars with gold rings, because one is controlled, the other is not. However, gold bars are inherently more liquid, and have the national gold brand SJC, which is very superior. As for gold rings, the brands are uniform and competitive. Therefore, it is quite unusual for the price of gold rings to be very close to the price of gold bars, ” Mr. Hieu commented.

Will gold prices continue to increase rapidly in the coming time? (Illustration: Cong Hieu).

Gold expert Tran Duy Phuong also expressed concern about the risks when gold prices increase "hotly" like now, because this often comes with the possibility of a sudden price decline.

" Gold prices have increased sharply, there is a high possibility of a downward adjustment. We cannot be sure when that will happen. Investing in gold at this time is risky, both buyers and sellers need to be cautious. Investors should wait until the world gold price adjusts down by about 50 - 70 USD/ounce before buying, so there will be a better chance of making a profit, " Mr. Phuong recommended.

According to Mr. Phuong, the sharp increase in the price of gold rings in recent times is due to the sharp increase in the world gold price. The reason why the price of gold rings is approaching the price of gold bars is because SJC gold bars are being managed by the State Bank, so they cannot increase or decrease according to the market. Therefore, the increase/decrease in the price of SJC gold bars is delayed compared to the price of gold rings.

Meanwhile, the World Gold Council (WGC) report stated: " Gold prices continue to rise strongly due to increased investment demand, geopolitical risks, and concerns about economic recession. However, high gold prices will likely continue to reduce demand for gold jewelry and price stability is needed to change this trend."

The surge in gold investments is also expected to continue, which could lead to gold prices and demand remaining high, according to the WGC.

Commenting on the development of gold prices in the coming time, Mr. Nguyen Quang Huy - CEO of the Faculty of Finance - Banking, Nguyen Trai University, said that in the short term, with the world gold price approaching the mark of 2,800 USD/ounce, the domestic gold ring price will continue to be under high pressure. Geopolitical instability and monetary easing policies from major central banks still exist, creating conditions for gold to maintain its attractiveness as a safe asset.

Domestic gold bars will also tend to increase but there will be unlikely to be any sudden changes because the State Bank will maintain the price stabilization program and control the difference between domestic and international gold prices.

In the medium to long term, if the geopolitical situation stabilizes and major economies begin to recover, gold prices could cool as money flows into other investment channels such as stocks or bonds.

" However, if geopolitical instability persists and loose monetary policy continues, ring gold prices will remain high and may increase further due to investors' risk-averse sentiment ," Mr. Huy emphasized.

According to Mr. Huy, the recent sharp increase in gold prices has been affected by many factors. In addition to geopolitical factors and concerns about economic recession, the world gold price is also greatly influenced by the buying demand of central banks around the world.

Domestically, people are also having difficulty finding safe and effective investment channels. Real estate requires large capital, from 4-5 billion VND or more; the stock market has not improved in terms of liquidity and trends; the bond market needs more time for investors to regain confidence; savings interest rates are stable but not attractive enough for those looking for high profits.

Therefore, gold has become an accessible and "affordable" investment channel for people with only a few million to a few hundred million VND, and this has significantly increased the demand for gold storage.

Despite the sharp increase in gold prices, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has done a good job in macro management to keep domestic gold prices close to world gold prices, minimizing large price differences and speculation. This has helped the domestic gold market to be more stable than before, when the gap between domestic and world prices was very large, causing consequences such as speculation, excessive hoarding and gold smuggling.

Chau Anh

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/gia-vang-thoi-gian-toi-tiep-tuc-tang-nong-ar905304.html