Israel in a situation of "being attacked on two fronts"
In the latest development, Hezbollah fighters fired a rocket into Israel on Sunday (October 15), killing one person. The Islamic militant group said it was responding to an Israeli missile attack on Lebanon on October 13.
Hezbollah has tens of thousands of well-trained and skilled fighters - Photo: NBC
According to observers, these developments are showing the risk of a war breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah on the country's northern border, putting Tel Aviv in a situation of "being attacked on two fronts".
So what is Hezbollah and what role does it play in the Middle East that makes Israel so worried? Here are some basic answers.
Hezbollah, which means "Party of God", is a Shiite Muslim political and militant group based in Lebanon and backed by Iran. The group was founded in 1982 during the Lebanese civil war to counter Israeli forces attacking southern Lebanon to clear out Palestinian militants.
Hezbollah's original manifesto, published in 1985, declared its enemies to be the Christian Lebanese Social Democratic Party, Israel, France, and the United States. And its goal was to expel these opponents from Lebanon. Hezbollah identifies itself as a Shiite resistance movement and pledges allegiance to Iran's supreme leader.
The US considers Hezbollah a terrorist group, accusing it of involvement in numerous attacks on civilians around the world, including the 1983 bombing of the US and French military barracks in Beirut that killed about 300 people. The European Union (EU) classifies Hezbollah’s military branch as a “terrorist group”.
How strong is Hezbollah?
In Lebanon, Hezbollah manages a vast network of social services including infrastructure, health care facilities, schools, and youth programs, all of which are instrumental in helping Hezbollah attract support from both Shiite and non-Shiite Lebanese.
Hezbollah holds 13 seats in the 128-member parliament after the most recent elections in 2022, but the party and its allies lost their majority. Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut, said that while Hezbollah has made “huge gains” in Lebanon’s politics over the past 30 years, it remains a “lonely group.”
Hezbollah has not achieved as much political success as before, but on the military front, Hezbollah is a formidable force in the Middle East. Professor Khashan said that Hezbollah is a well-resourced armed group with a medium-sized but combat-ready force that can defeat most Arab armies, making them the “most powerful non-state organization” in the Middle East.
Hezbollah fighters with multiple rocket launchers with a range of tens of kilometers. Photo: Middle East Eye
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimates that by 2020, Hezbollah had up to 20,000 regular troops and about 20,000 reservists, with a powerful arsenal of tanks, drones and various long-range missiles.
Major General Assaf Orion, an analyst at the Israel Institute for National Security Studies, said Hezbollah possesses “more artillery than most Arab countries in the Middle East.”
Meanwhile, the Times of Israel newspaper commented that Hezbollah currently has about 100,000 gunmen, possesses many precision-guided missiles that can attack anywhere in Israel as well as advanced drones that can attack or collect intelligence.
Hezbollah's greatest achievement over the past 40 years has been its guerrilla war against Israeli forces occupying parts of southern Lebanon. When the Israeli army was forced to withdraw in May 2000 - without a peace deal like those reached with Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinians - the victory brought Hezbollah praise from Muslims across the Middle East.
Why did Hezbollah appear in the Israel-Hamas war?
Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut, said Hezbollah has played a key role in training Hamas leaders, even though the two groups are on opposite sides of the Syrian civil war.
Reuters quoted a source close to Hamas as saying that Hezbollah seized the opportunity to absorb Hamas in 1992 when Israel deported some 400 Hamas commanders to Lebanon. The source added that Hezbollah hosted Hamas members, shared military technology and trained them to make homemade bombs for suicide attacks. And Hezbollah has been providing weapons and training to Hamas ever since, because both have a common enemy, Israel.
Shortly after Tel Aviv launched an attack on the Gaza Strip in response to Hamas, Hezbollah fighters also fired several rockets into Israeli territory in what the group called “solidarity” with Hamas, leading to sporadic clashes between them and Israeli soldiers.
However, the clashes appear to have been kept under control, preventing them from escalating into all-out war. While both the US and Israel have issued statements warning Hezbollah to stay out of the Israel-Hamas war, Hezbollah has not pushed the situation out of control.
What happens if Hezbollah enters the war?
According to analysts, the possibility of Hezbollah joining the war cannot be ruled out. And the question is what would happen if Hezbollah got involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict?
In addition to rockets and infantry fighting vehicles, Hezbollah also possesses drones that can strike deep into Israeli territory. Photo: Jerusalem Post
It is clear that this scenario would open up a broader regional conflict, posing difficulties for Israel on both borders and potentially leading to greater death and destruction for all sides.
Dealing with Hezbollah is no easy task. With a force comparable to a medium-sized European army, disciplined and well-trained, Hezbollah is formidable thanks to thousands of battle-hardened fighters who have been trained in the battlefield through their intervention in the Syrian Civil War.
Fighting in Syria, Hezbollah fighters honed their urban warfare skills. Hezbollah also gained valuable battlefield experience in managing large-scale offensive operations, something they had never experienced before.
Other enhanced capabilities Hezbollah “harvested” from Syria include more effective use of artillery support, skillful use of drones in reconnaissance and surveillance operations, and improved logistics in supporting combined-arms attacks.
However, according to Professor Khashan, if Hezbollah escalates the conflict with Israel into an all-out war, they “have no chance” and will most likely be wiped out. More importantly, the US is also taking strong steps to restrain both sides.
The Pentagon has deployed two aircraft carriers to the Eastern Mediterranean, an area where many US warships, aircraft and troops are stationed, with a clear message: do not allow any other force in the Middle East to get involved in the war between Israel and Hamas.
Quang Anh
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