Indonesia opens tender for 543,000 tons of rice, export rice price expected to increase

Rice export prices - A week of strong fluctuations Thai rice export prices turn down, Vietnamese rice remains at a high level

Export rice prices "cool down"

According to data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), rice export prices from world sources including Vietnam and Thailand this week tended to decrease.

Specifically, the price of 5% broken rice from Vietnam decreased by 5 USD/ton, to 658 USD/ton; meanwhile, the price of the same quality rice from Thailand decreased by about 9 USD/ton (the first session of the week decreased by about 7 USD and the last session decreased by 2 USD), down to 623 USD/ton.

Only the same grade of Pakistani rice remained unchanged at $598/ton this week.

Rice export prices fall this week

Although rice prices have cooled down recently, they are still very high compared to the time before India banned the export of popular white rice. Notably, since the country with the largest proportion of popular white rice in the world banned exports, rice-supplying countries including Thailand, Vietnam and some other countries have "benefited".

Data from customs of various countries shows that in the first 10 months of 2023, Vietnam exported more than 7 million tons of rice, worth nearly 4 billion USD, up 17% in volume and 35% in value over the same period in 2022. The average export price of rice is estimated at 558 USD/ton, up 15.3% over the same period in 2022. Vietnam's main rice export markets are: Philippines, Indonesia, China, Ghana, Ivory Coast. It is forecasted that in 2023, Vietnam will export about 8 million tons of rice, equivalent to a value of 4.6 billion USD.

During the same period, Thailand's rice exports reached 6.9 million tons, worth $3.9 billion, up 11.4% and nearly 25% year-on-year, respectively. The top five importers were Indonesia, the US, South Africa, Iraq and China. However, Thailand is exporting favorably in the last two months of 2023 thanks to limited supply from Vietnam. Thailand is expected to export 8.6 - 8.7 million tons of rice this year.

Meanwhile, Pakistan, the world's third largest rice exporter, does not have detailed figures, but according to the country's Rice Exporters Association, rice exports normally range from $2 to $2.5 billion per year, but could exceed $3 billion in 2023. In addition, Myanmar and Cambodia also benefited when important suppliers India stopped exporting.

Demand begins to increase

While the global rice price market is somewhat quiet, on the contrary, demand tends to increase.

Accordingly, according to a source from the SSRicenews news site, the Indonesian National Logistics Agency (Bulog) has sent a tender notice to supply rice in a quantity of up to 543,000 tons. SSRicenews informed that the product that Indonesia wants to import is 5% broken long grain white rice.

Regarding supply, Bulog expects Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, Pakistan and Cambodia. The deadline for delivery is January 30, 2024.

According to Bulog, as of November 26, Indonesia had imported a total of 3.3 million tons of rice within the import quota of 3.8 million tons for the year. The amount of rice imported in 2024 will continue to be high, according to the plan, the quota will be at least 2 million tons.

According to Vietnamese businesses, Indonesia's announcement of the bidding at this time may cause rice prices to fluctuate due to the current shortage of supply (India continues to restrict the export of common white rice until the end of 2024 and Vietnam has not yet entered the new harvest season). Therefore, global rice prices may increase again next week.

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