Scenario of impact of storm FENGSHEN on mainland Vietnam

Photo caption — Location and path of the storm. Photo: KTTV

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that early on October 18, the tropical depression in the sea east of the Philippines strengthened into a storm, the 24th storm in the Northwest Pacific region and has the international name FENGSHEN (storm name FENGSHEN was given by China, in Chinese it means God of Wind).

At 7:00 a.m. on October 18, the center of storm FENGSHEN was at about 13.1 degrees North latitude; 126.5 degrees East longitude, in the sea east of the central Philippines. The storm intensity was level 8 (62 - 74 km/h), gusting to level 10.

It is forecasted that by the morning of October 19, typhoon FENGSHEN will make landfall in the Luzon Island (Philippines). In the afternoon and evening of October 19, the typhoon will pass through Luzon Island (Philippines) and enter the East Sea, becoming typhoon number 12.

It is forecasted that after moving into the East Sea, storm No. 12 will move mainly in the West-Northwest direction, with an increasing intensity. By around October 22, when the storm moves to the northern area of Hoang Sa special zone, the storm will strengthen to level 11, gusting to level 13.

“However, the characteristics of this storm No. 12 when the storm moves into the East Sea, the East Sea is under the influence of cold air, the cold air mass blocking the western part of the storm makes it less likely that the storm will move west to move into the North, or go up to the Chinese region (due to being blocked in the North and blocked in the West). Therefore, when moving into the Hoang Sa special zone, reaching the strongest intensity of level 11, gusting to level 13, storm No. 12 will be penetrated by cold air and gradually weaken in intensity, most likely weakening into a tropical depression before affecting the mainland of the Central provinces,” the meteorological expert said.

Although the possibility of maintaining the storm's intensity to affect the Central mainland is not high, but with the impact of the storm's circulation, combined with cold air in the Northern seas, the middle of the East Sea (including Hoang Sa special zone), the Gulf of Tonkin, as well as the sea area from Quang Tri - Quang Ngai , in the coming days there will often be strong winds from level 6 - 8 or higher, waves from 3 - 4m high, rough seas.

In addition, due to the influence of post-storm circulation No. 12, combined with the impact of cold air, from October 23 to 26, in the area from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai, there will be a widespread period of moderate to heavy rain.

The interaction of cold air and storms is one of the types of interaction that has many scenarios; if the storm comes first and the cold air comes later, or if the storm and cold air influence each other, it will cause very heavy rain. But if the cold air comes first and then the storm comes later, the rain will not be too heavy.

Currently, the rain scenarios as well as the impact of storms on mainland Vietnam still depend a lot on the development of cold air, so it is necessary to closely monitor the simultaneous development of the storm's path and the impact of cold air.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/xa-hoi/kich-ban-tac-dong-cua-bao-fengshen-den-dat-lien-viet-nam-20251018114216084.htm