Economy in the first 7 months of 2025: Signs of recovery

The national economic picture in the first 7 months of 2025 recorded many bright spots, with a series of impressive growth indicators. These results reflect the strong resilience and flexible adaptability of the economy, and at the same time demonstrate the effective coordination between the government, businesses and people in the recovery and development efforts.

This is also an important foundation for Vietnam's economy to make a breakthrough, aiming to complete and even exceed the targets set for the whole year. Notably, after the administrative unit merger, all 34 localities had an increased production index.

Import and export in the past 7 months continued to achieve positive results. Photo: Hoang Hanh

Highlights

According to the report of the General Statistics Office ( Ministry of Finance ), the macro economy in July and the first 7 months of 2025 continued to be stable, inflation was controlled, major balances were ensured and many important indicators improved compared to the previous month as well as the same period in 2024. Specifically, in the first 7 months of 2025, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.26%; state budget revenue reached 80.2% of the estimate, up 27.8%. Export turnover reached 262.4 billion USD, up 14.8%; trade surplus is estimated at 10.2 billion USD.

Total registered foreign investment capital in the first 7 months reached nearly 24.1 billion USD, up 27.3% over the same period, disbursed capital reached 13.6 billion USD, up about 8.45%; total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in the first 7 months increased by 9.3%; production and business grew positively. In the first 7 months, 174,000 enterprises entered and re-entered the market, up nearly 22.9% over the same period, higher than the number of enterprises withdrawing from the market.

The index of industrial production (IIP) in the first 7 months of 2025 is estimated to increase by 8.6% over the same period last year (in 2024 it increased by 8.5%). In particular, the processing and manufacturing industry continues to be a bright spot with an increase of 10.3%, higher than the 9.6% of the same period in 2024. With a large scale, this industry has contributed up to 8.5 percentage points to the overall growth rate, becoming the main pillar for the entire industry.

The notable point in the report of the General Statistics Office is that after the merger, the industrial production index in the first 7 months of 2025 compared to the same period last year increased in all 34 localities. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in July returned to the 50-point threshold for the first time since the beginning of the second quarter, reaching 52.4 points, thanks to the increase in new orders...

“The increase in new orders has created a positive spillover effect. In particular, the growth in domestic orders is an important signal, showing that Vietnam's manufacturing industry is not completely dependent on the export market, and clearly reflects the economy's ability to adapt flexibly,” S&P Global's report said.

Andrew Harker, Chief Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that Vietnam’s manufacturing sector is recovering from the disruptions caused by the announcement of US tariffs in recent months. While companies have been successful in securing enough orders from other markets to offset the impact and help new orders rebound, a prolonged weakness in the export sector remains a risk factor that cannot be overlooked. The tariff saga has once again highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains and the interdependence of economies in an increasingly complex geopolitical context.

“Vietnam has enough policy space to support the economy when needed. Reforms to improve the investment environment and infrastructure are also helping Vietnam consolidate its position,” said Dong He, Chief Economist of the ASEAN 3 Macroeconomic Research Office.

Create investor confidence

Despite many positive signals, according to the analysis of the Ministry of Finance, the economy is still facing many difficulties and challenges. One of the existing difficulties is that exports - an important growth driver of the economy - are still facing great risks due to the US's reciprocal tax policy. Moreover, although consumption has recovered positively, it has not really made a breakthrough, and retail sales of goods are still slow to recover. New growth drivers in the early stages need time to create changes and achieve results... Meanwhile, some tasks are still slow to be implemented, pending, not meeting the schedule, putting pressure on completion in the last months of the year...

In order for the economy to continue its growth momentum in the final months of the year, Director of the General Statistics Office Nguyen Thi Huong said that the Government will continue to maintain a stable macro environment, creating confidence for investors and people; at the same time, sectors and levels will increase updating and forecasting the situation, proactively and flexibly manage, adapt to the new situation, promptly respond to emerging situations; firmly and effectively implement the goal of promoting growth associated with macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, ensuring social security and people's lives.

In addition, the Government needs to operate monetary policy cautiously and flexibly, ensuring inflation control within the set target (below 4.5%). The State Bank directs commercial banks to stabilize exchange rates, ensure liquidity of the banking system, especially continue to reduce lending interest rates, support economic growth after the Government issued Resolution 266/NQ-CP on August 5 on growth targets for sectors, fields, localities and key tasks and solutions to ensure the country's growth in 2025 reaches from 8.3 - 8.5%.

At all levels and sectors, it is necessary to be more flexible and decisive in directing and operating policies, improving the investment and business environment and enhancing the resilience of the economy to achieve the growth target as directed by the Prime Minister from 8.3 - 8.5% in 2025.

Ms. Nguyen Thu Oanh, Head of the Service and Price Statistics Department (General Statistics Office) said that the General Statistics Office will continuously update scenarios on growth and inflation, closely and effectively coordinate and harmonize macroeconomic management policies to maintain stability and growth of the economy. At the same time, closely monitor price developments of strategic goods in the world market, international and regional situations; proactively analyze, forecast, and promptly warn of risks affecting domestic price levels. On the other hand, ensure appropriate supply and prices for essential goods serving people's lives.

Enterprises need to take full advantage of opportunities from effective Free Trade Agreements such as EVFTA, CPTPP, RCEP to enhance trade promotion, seek and expand new markets, and diversify export products.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/kinh-te-7-thang-dau-nam-2025-nhung-tin-hieu-phuc-hoi-712826.html