Risk of nuclear war

TRI VAN (Synthesis)

The progress in nuclear disarmament is being reversed amid rising global tensions, with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) warning of the “high risk” this poses.

China's DF-41 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile. Photo: AFP

According to SIPRI's annual assessment of the state of nuclear disarmament published on June 12, there are currently around 12,512 nuclear warheads globally, down slightly from 12,710 in 2022. However, of these, 9,576 are in military stockpiles ready for use, up 86 from last year. Of the 9,576 usable warheads, around 2,000 are on high alert, meaning they could be loaded onto missiles or stored at air bases hosting nuclear bombers, SIPRI said.

There are currently nine countries possessing nuclear weapons in the world, including the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel. Of these, the US and Russia possess nearly 90% of the total number of nuclear weapons, but Russia has only increased slightly, from 4,477 to 4,489 warheads. China alone is assessed to have significantly increased its nuclear arsenal, from 350 to 410 warheads and is expected to continue to increase. On the other hand, China has invested heavily in all its military forces as its economy and influence have increased. "What we are seeing is China emerging as a world power. That is the reality," said Dan Smith, director of SIPRI.

The UK’s nuclear arsenal is believed to have remained the same as last year, but its warhead stockpile is expected to increase in the future, with the UK government announcing in 2021 that London would raise the limit from 225 to 260 warheads. For their part, India and Pakistan are also expanding their nuclear arsenals, with New Delhi focusing on longer-range weapons, including those capable of striking targets across China. Meanwhile, North Korea continues to prioritize its military nuclear program, while Israel also appears to be expanding its nuclear arsenal.

Worryingly, relations between the nuclear powers are at their lowest point in decades. Moscow and Washington are once again at loggerheads after Russia launched a “special military operation” in Ukraine last February, SIPRI said. The US has even suspended its “bilateral strategic stability dialogue” with Russia. In response, Russia earlier this year suspended its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). The only remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia, signed in 2010, allows for inspections of weapons sites and sharing of information on the deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

“In this period of heightened geopolitical tension and distrust, channels of communication between nuclear-armed rivals are closed or virtually non-existent, leading to a high risk of miscalculation, misunderstanding and accidents. There is an urgent need to restore nuclear diplomacy and strengthen international control of nuclear weapons,” said Mr. Smith.

US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner recently said that Washington’s adversaries are “significantly expanding” their nuclear arsenals. He stressed that the Pentagon is closely monitoring these trends and is “undertaking a number of different efforts,” including investing in modernizing its nuclear arsenal. The Star reported that in 2021, the US Congressional Budget Office estimated that Washington would need $634 billion over the next decade to upgrade its nuclear arsenal, up 28% from its projection 10 years earlier.

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