Will increased imports from global giants lead to a sharp rise in Vietnamese rice prices?

The Philippines – Vietnam's largest rice buyer – could import 4.5-4.7 million tons of rice in 2024, a significant increase from last year's 3.9 million tons. This presents an opportunity for global and Vietnamese export rice prices to rebound.

According to the Vietnam Trade Office in the Philippines, citing sources from the Philippines' Ministry of Agriculture , the total rice imports of the Philippines in 2024 are projected to reach 4.5 million tons, higher than the previous forecast of approximately 4 million tons. This presents a significant opportunity for Vietnam's rice exports.

Vietnam's rice exports face a great opportunity as key markets are expected to increase their import volumes. (Cong Han)

In the first six months of 2024, the Philippines' total rice imports reached 2.32 million tons, an increase of nearly 25% compared to the same period in 2023. Of this amount, Vietnam accounted for over 1.7 million tons, followed by Thailand with 352,331 tons. An updated forecast from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) suggests the Philippines could import up to 4.7 million tons of rice. This represents a 20% increase from the 3.9 million tons imported in 2023 due to domestic policy changes. Specifically, Act 11203, which liberalizes rice imports, and Decree 62, which reduces the import tariff on rice from 35% to 15%, are contributing factors. According to the USDA, strong demand from major importers such as the Philippines, Malaysia, and Ivory Coast is projected to push global rice imports in 2024 to 54.29 million tons. These countries are all traditional customers for Vietnamese rice, so our rice export opportunities will expand further in the last months of the year. In the first six months of this year, rice exports have achieved both quantity and quality, with nearly 4.7 million tons, valued at nearly 3 billion USD. In another development, in early July, Mr. Francisco Tiu Laurel, Jr. - the Philippine Minister of Agriculture, visited Vietnam to promote trade in rice and agricultural supplies from Vietnam. The head of the Philippine agricultural sector also called on Vietnamese businesses to invest in the country's agricultural sector. The Vietnam Food Association said that export rice prices in various countries are at their lowest level since the beginning of the year; Vietnamese 5% broken rice is priced at 562 USD/ton, Thailand at 567 USD/ton, and Pakistan at 587 USD/ton. Despite the current sluggish market due to heavy rains and increased shipping costs. However, from the beginning of August, when shipping freight tensions may ease, coupled with recent positive news, rice prices are expected to rise again. Source: https://thanhnien.vn/ong-lon-the-gioi-tang-nhap-gia-gao-viet-se-tang-manh-185240717092228363.htm