PSG win with 4.1% chance

Luis Enrique's PSG were underestimated before the season started. Photo: Reuters .

Before each Champions League season, Opta’s supercomputer runs a simulation to see who has the best odds of winning. After 10,000 attempts, it predicts Paris Saint-Germain has just a 4.1% chance of winning. The French club’s odds are the same as Bayern Munich’s, and worse than Liverpool (4.2%) and Barcelona (5.2%).

They are ranked 9th in the list of chances to win the “elephant ear cup”. The supercomputer rates Manchester City or Real Madrid highly this season.

Championship chances of teams participating in the 2024-2025 C1 Cup. Photo: Opta.

However, PSG shattered the doubts of experts or high-tech calculations. The team led by coach Luis Enrique showed beautiful attacking football with a young squad. They defeated Inter Milan in one of the most lopsided Champions League finals. Not only did they show a score of 5-0, the stars of the Parc des Princes stadium continuously pressed and did not let the opponent play the ball.

Opta's computational model works on the basis of probability problems with big data as input. The research company takes bookmaker odds and adds a ranking of computing power based on past data and recent performance.

The supercomputer looks at the correlation of any two teams, then performs sequential simulations tens of thousands of times to produce results.

Football has once again shown how unpredictable it is, despite the advances in technology and algorithms. A PSG with a 4.1% chance of winning the tournament at the start of the season won the title for the first time, losing their biggest star to Real Madrid. Meanwhile, teams that were predicted to go deep and win the title were eliminated early.

From a super low rating, before the final, PSG became the number one candidate. Opta's computer calculated the French club's chance of winning at 56.6%, compared to 43.4% for their opponent.

Source: https://znews.vn/psg-vo-dich-voi-4-1-co-hoi-post1557421.html