Circumspect
Present at the recent Vietnam Investment Forum 2025, Ms. Thieu Thi Nhat Le, General Director of UOB Asset Management (Vietnam) JSC, shared that the Fund currently chooses a defensive strategy. The reason is that the Fund recognizes that there are still many unstable factors, prioritizing investment in industries with strong internal strength in the Vietnamese market, while limiting capital investment in areas directly affected by exports.
However, when the market makes a deep correction, such as the decline in early April after the US announced its reciprocal tax policy, it is seen as an opportunity to disburse capital to businesses with good foundations and growth prospects. Especially in the context of the Government promoting public investment and institutional reform, aiming for a GDP growth target of 8% this year.
“The Fund’s investment strategy focuses on businesses operating primarily domestically, especially those that benefit from the Government’s strategic orientation and priorities such as public investment,” said Ms. Thieu Thi Nhat Le.
According to Ms. Le, there are 4 industry groups that are receiving special attention from investors, including: banking and construction, construction materials, retail and domestic consumption, and real estate.
Accordingly, the banking sector is expected to directly benefit from the 16% credit growth target in 2025 and the progress of public investment disbursement is being strongly promoted. The construction and construction materials sector is expected to grow thanks to a series of key infrastructure projects being implemented. As for the retail and domestic consumption sectors, domestic purchasing power remains positive, despite uncertainties from the global economic environment. Finally, real estate will be a potential sector in the coming time, as the Government strives to remove legal obstacles for more than 2,000 projects, creating a significant boost for this market.
In addition, there are businesses in the technology and logistics sectors, industries that have the ability to adapt flexibly in a changing environment.
For foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises, which currently contribute about 70% of total export turnover, UOB Vietnam expects that this group will have a strategic adjustment after the results of the Vietnam - US trade negotiations. In the next few months, when specific tax policies are announced, the portfolio will be re-evaluated and may be reallocated to prioritize export enterprises that still maintain a competitive advantage.
It can be seen that when the market reacts strongly to international policies, investors remain calm and conduct specific analysis for each industry.
Ms. Duong Kim Anh, Investment Director of Vietcombank Fund Management Company (VCBF) informed that the Fund always adheres to the basic investment strategy, choosing businesses with a sustainable foundation and high competitiveness. VCBF selects each business that meets the investment criteria instead of allocating according to the industry proportion from top to bottom. In the same industry, the level of influence of businesses can be very different. For example, in the textile or seafood industry, there are businesses that depend heavily on the US market and will face difficulties in the short term. On the contrary, there are businesses that have diversified their markets early or have special production capacity, and can still maintain orders despite fluctuations. Even with high taxes, some businesses are still able to compete in terms of price and quality.
Enterprises in the industrial park real estate sector are also indirectly affected because FDI capital flows tend to observe the impact of tax policies more clearly. However, the long-term outlook remains positive, especially for industrial parks with clean land funds that meet ESG (environmental, social, and corporate governance) standards.
“This will be the first group of businesses to benefit when FDI capital returns in a selective manner, linked to technology transfer and high value-added chains. For such businesses, not only should the proportion not be reduced, but the investment proportion should also be considered increased,” Ms. Kim Anh emphasized.
Foreign capital is unpredictable
Previously, in April, at the Investment Promotion Forum in the US, international organizations, investment banks, financial groups, and investment funds such as Warburg Pincus, Citibank, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, BNY Mellon, Standard Chartered, etc. expressed interest in investment opportunities in Vietnam in the coming time.
In fact, after 4 consecutive months of net selling, in May, foreign investors turned to net buying. Mr. Le Hoai Anh, CEO of Affinity Equity Partners Fund, commented that foreign capital inflows into the Vietnamese market in the next 6-12 months are very difficult to predict, especially in the context of global capital costs remaining high. With the base interest rate in many major economies remaining around 4.5-5%/year, foreign investors will require a yield of up to 15-20% in Vietnam to be enough to compensate for risks, especially exchange rate risks. Although Vietnam's economy has many bright spots, opportunities in other markets are also very attractive.
According to Ms. Thieu Thi Nhat Le, capital flows from large organizations are often allocated by region and depend heavily on the investment performance of each market.
Currently, international organizations are lowering their outlook for global economic growth. Vietnam is no exception to this trend, because our economy is quite open. Tariff policies affect all countries that have trade relations with the US.
Meanwhile, the valuation level in Vietnam has become more attractive after the sharp correction in April. However, it is still too early to make a definitive assessment of the trend of foreign capital flows. Institutional investors are still closely following the negotiations between the US and Vietnam, not only related to trade, but also including geopolitical factors.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/quy-dau-tu-phong-thu-cho-thoi-d300003.html
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