Determined to achieve a growth target of 8.3-8.5%.

Many solutions have been and will continue to be implemented to boost growth drivers such as investment, consumption, and exports. All of this is aimed at achieving an economic growth rate of 8.3-8.5% this year.

Vietnam has a solid foundation to respond to challenges and maintain its growth momentum. Photo: Duc Thanh

Remaining steadfast in the face of adversity.

There have been conflicting forecasts for Vietnam's economy in the second half of 2025, with both the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Standard Chartered lowering their GDP growth forecasts for Vietnam. Specifically, in their latest report released on July 23rd, the ADB projected Vietnam's economic growth at approximately 6.3% this year and 6% next year. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth at 6.1% this year – significantly lower than its previous forecast (6.7%).

These forecasts contradict previous predictions from many other international financial institutions. Specifically, UOB Bank raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 from 6% to 6.9%; CitiGroup raised it from 6.6% to 7%; and Maybank raised it to 7.3%. Meanwhile, BIDV 's research group raised its forecast for the whole year 2025 to 7.5-7.7% (base scenario) and 7.8-8.1% (optimistic scenario)...

The conflicting forecasts indicate that uncertainty remains high and the economy faces many challenges. One of the reasons stems from the US tariff policy, which is scheduled to officially take effect on August 1st.

The Ministry of Finance , in a recent report to the Government, also emphasized that the US retaliatory tariff policy is expected to directly affect many of Vietnam's key export sectors, such as electronics, textiles, wood products, and seafood, putting pressure on GDP growth, macroeconomic stability, employment, and social welfare.

Vietnam's trade prospects remain promising thanks to the strong recovery in exports and tourism.

- Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand, Standard Chartered Bank

"According to calculations by the Ministry of Finance, if exports to the US decrease by 1%, it will affect growth by about 0.08%; if domestic gasoline and diesel prices increase by 10%, it will affect growth by about 0.5%," said Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang.

Although acknowledging that economies in the Asia-Pacific region may “continue to be affected by escalating US trade tensions and tariffs,” the ADB still emphasized the “resilience” of the Vietnamese economy in 2025 and 2026, despite a potential slowdown in growth in the short term due to tariff pressures.

Meanwhile, Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered Bank, shared that while some economic indicators may slow down in the short term, Standard Chartered believes that Vietnam “has a solid foundation” to respond to challenges and maintain its growth momentum.

In fact, it was precisely because of its belief in the stability and resilience of the economy that the Ministry of Finance recommended to the Government a growth scenario of 8.3-8.5% this year, which was approved by the Prime Minister. The remaining question is, how can the economy achieve this high growth rate, laying the foundation for double-digit growth next year?

Looking at traditional drivers

For the economy to accelerate and develop, new growth drivers are important and necessary. However, while more time is needed for these drivers to become effective, to achieve GDP growth of 8.3-8.5% this year, we must first rely on the three traditional growth drivers: investment, consumption, and exports.

When developing the economic scenario for 2025, with a target GDP growth rate of 8.3-8.5%, the Ministry of Finance stated that the growth drivers for the last six months of the year include total social investment of approximately US$111 billion; total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (at current prices) increasing by about 13% or more; and total import and export turnover in 2025 increasing by 17% or more.

Therefore, along with promoting investment – ​​identified as the main driving force with ample room and potential for further expansion – it is also necessary to exploit market opportunities to boost consumption and exports.

These solutions have been repeatedly emphasized by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. Affirming that the 8.3-8.5% growth target is not an "impossible goal" and "must be avoided," the Prime Minister directed that the disbursement of public investment capital must be accelerated, social investment must be mobilized, consumer demand must be stimulated, and tariff negotiations with the US must be carried out effectively to boost exports…

A favorable factor is that the second half of the year will be the peak season for both domestic and export consumption, creating opportunities to boost both consumption and exports. Therefore, many solutions will be implemented to ensure these two drivers contribute even more to economic growth, alongside investment.

For example, combating smuggling and trade fraud; focusing on developing tourism products to attract international visitors; allocating state budget and promptly and fully addressing the entitlements and policies for officials, civil servants, and employees in the reorganization of the apparatus, especially those who have already received termination notices; supporting businesses to proactively prepare and boost exports to key markets starting from the third quarter, making the most of the year-end peak consumption season…

Besides leveraging export markets, economic experts believe that the domestic market needs to be strongly reactivated through measures to increase people's disposable income, such as raising wages, reducing taxes, and implementing consumer stimulus packages.

Regarding this issue, the Ministry of Finance is making efforts to implement various solutions, including tax deferrals, extensions, and reductions, to stimulate consumer demand. The 2% reduction in VAT is one example. Recently, the Ministry of Finance also proposed increasing the personal allowance for personal income tax.

In addition, the process of paying severance packages to officials and civil servants during the restructuring of the administrative apparatus is being accelerated. This is also considered to be a positive step in stimulating consumer demand, thereby promoting economic growth.

Importantly, according to Albert Park, ADB's Chief Economist, despite the increased risks from tariff uncertainty, domestic reforms, if implemented effectively and quickly, could mitigate these risks by strengthening domestic factors. This would also positively support Vietnam's economic growth in 2025.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/quyet-liet-cho-muc-tieu-tang-truong-83-85-d341525.html