Since the end of last week, the oil and gas group has recorded good performance. A series of codes accumulated 2-6% in market value, some even hit the ceiling price. In the session of June 16 alone, this group recorded 4 purple stocks including PLX, GAS, OIL and PVD.
After only two sessions last weekend and early this week, the PLX code of the Vietnam National Petroleum Group ( Petrolimex ) has increased to its full range. Many stocks in the same industry have also increased by double digits, approaching the peak of the past 2-3 months.
According to data from stock trading data analysis platform Fiintrade, the oil and gas industry index increased from 64.45 points at the end of May to 74.18 points as of yesterday's close, or more than 15%.
According to a recent report by the SSI Investment Analysis and Consulting Center (SSI Research), in May, oil and gas was one of the stock groups showing signs of attracting money again with positive changes in price and liquidity, along with the electricity, water, petroleum and gas securities sectors.
Nguyen Thi Thanh Nhan, an analyst at FinSuccess, an investment advisory and trust company, said the recent surge in oil stocks was mainly due to concerns about disruptions in global fuel supplies as tensions between Israel and Iran escalated. The back-and-forth airstrikes, especially the threat of an attack on Kharg Island, Iran’s main crude oil export hub, and the possibility of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (through which about 20% of global oil and LNG are transported) have caused Brent crude oil prices to jump 11-14%, to the $72-74 per barrel range.
"This development triggered a defensive mentality and short-term speculative cash flow into oil and gas stocks, causing many stocks to even hit the ceiling. Investors expect high oil prices to help improve profit margins and promote the return of exploitation, drilling, and transportation activities," Ms. Nhan explained.
Similarly, Mr. Nguyen Viet Duc, Digital Business Director of VPBank Securities Company (VPBankS), also said that oil and gas stocks increased because "the time has come". The market is a collection of many stocks. Therefore, according to him, whether the market is up or down, investors will always look for some industry groups that benefit from fluctuations, except when there are macro fluctuations.
Investors now expect that if oil shipments through the Middle East are restricted, demand from other regions will increase. In a worst-case scenario where Iran is sanctioned and the US enters the conflict, oil prices could rise to $120 a barrel, according to JPMorgan’s scenario.
However, according to FinSuccess, this could be a technical and psychological correction, with no clear improvement in business results. Furthermore, organizations such as Rystad Energy still believe that oil prices will find it difficult to exceed the $80 mark because OPEC+ and the US still have room to increase supply. According to the Financial Times , the conflict is likely to be controlled and if tensions cool down, oil prices could fall rapidly, leading to a strong correction in oil and gas stocks.
In fact, in the trading session on June 17, oil and gas stocks adjusted after news that Iran wanted to negotiate a truce caused energy prices to reverse and fall. Later, prices recovered slightly thanks to news that US President Donald Trump asked Iranians to leave Tehran. However, oil and gas stocks were still under considerable selling pressure, causing many codes such as PLX, PVD, OIL, PVS or BSR to fall by around 2-3%.
Currently, the valuation of this group is high. According to data from Fiintrade, oil and gas production stocks closed on June 16 with a P/E (market price per share profit) of over 61 times, while the average of VN-Index is nearly 13.2 times. The oil and gas equipment, services and distribution group has a P/E of 14.8 times, higher than the market average.
Oil and gas stocks have high valuations, but the FinSuccess analysis team notes that geopolitical tensions - the main supporting factor for this group - are often unpredictable and unsustainable. In particular, many oil and gas companies operate under long-term contracts with the Vietnam National Oil and Gas Group (PVN) or the State, so profits are not completely "sensitive" to fluctuations in international oil prices as expected by the market. Therefore, investors need to carefully study the business model of the company to understand whether they directly benefit from rising oil prices or not.
"From a prudent perspective, this is not an ideal time for new investors to participate without a clear risk management strategy," the expert emphasized.
For medium and long-term investors, FinSuccess believes that the industry's outlook remains positive if prices remain in the $75-85 per barrel range and energy projects are accelerated. Therefore, investment decisions should be based on the industry context, financial health and business operations of each enterprise.
Similarly, SSI Research expects oil and gas sector profits to improve this year thanks to improved exploration and production activities. The analysts predict an average oil price of $70-75 per barrel this year, supported by factors such as OPEC delaying production cuts, a good recovery in the Chinese market, and faster-than-expected interest rate cuts.
HA (according to VnE)Source: https://baohaiduong.vn/suc-nong-cua-co-phieu-dau-khi-414321.html
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