The heat of oil and gas stocks

Oil and gas stocks have benefited from the Israel-Iran conflict in recent sessions, with many hitting the ceiling price and contributing significantly to the stock market's rise.

Investors are monitoring the market at a securities firm in District 1, Ho Chi Minh City.

Since last weekend, the oil and gas sector stocks have recorded strong performance. Numerous stocks have accumulated price increases of 2-6%, with some even reaching their ceiling price. Specifically on June 16th, four stocks in this group saw significant gains: PLX, GAS, OIL, and PVD.

In just two trading sessions last weekend and early this week, the PLX stock of Vietnam Petroleum Corporation ( Petrolimex ) has surged to its maximum limit. Many other stocks in the same sector have also seen double-digit gains, approaching their peaks of the past 2-3 months.

According to data from the stock trading data analytics platform Fiintrade, the oil and gas sector index rose from 64.45 points at the end of May to 74.18 points at the end of yesterday's trading session, a gain of over 15%.

According to a recent report by SSI Research, the investment analysis and consulting center for SSI, in May, oil and gas was one of the stock groups showing signs of attracting investment again, with positive developments in both price and liquidity, alongside the electricity, water, petroleum, and gas sectors.

Ms. Nguyen Thi Thanh Nhan, an analyst at FinSuccess, an investment consulting and trust firm, believes that the recent surge in oil and gas stocks is primarily due to concerns about disruptions to global fuel supplies as tensions between Israel and Iran escalate. The tit-for-tat airstrikes, particularly the risk of attacks on Kharg Island, Iran's main crude oil export hub, along with the possibility of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (which carries approximately 20% of global oil and LNG), have caused Brent crude oil prices to jump 11-14%, to the $72-$74 per barrel range.

"This development triggered defensive sentiment and a strong influx of short-term speculative capital into oil and gas stocks, causing many stocks to even hit their upper limit. Investors expect high oil prices to improve profit margins and encourage the resumption of exploration, drilling, and transportation activities," Ms. Nhan explained.

Similarly, Mr. Nguyen Viet Duc, Director of Digital Business at VPBank Securities Company (VPBankS), also believes that oil and gas stocks are rising because "the time has come." The market is a collection of many stocks. Therefore, according to him, whether the market goes up or down, investors will always seek out certain sectors that benefit from fluctuations, except during times of macroeconomic instability.

Currently, investors expect that if oil and gas transportation routes through the Middle East are restricted, demand from other regions will increase. According to JPMorgan's scenario, in the worst-case scenario of sanctions against Iran and US involvement in the conflict, oil prices could reach $120 per barrel.

However, according to FinSuccess, this could be a technical and psychological correction, with no clear improvement in business results. Furthermore, organizations like Rystad Energy still believe that oil prices are unlikely to surpass $80 due to the remaining room for OPEC+ and the US to increase supply. According to the Financial Times , the conflict is likely to be brought under control, and if tensions ease, oil prices could fall rapidly, potentially leading to a sharp correction in oil and gas stocks.

In fact, during the trading session on June 17th, oil and gas stocks corrected after news that Iran wanted to negotiate a truce, causing energy prices to reverse and fall. Later, prices recovered slightly thanks to news that US President Donald Trump had ordered Iranian citizens to leave Tehran. However, oil and gas stocks still faced significant selling pressure, causing many stocks such as PLX, PVD, OIL, PVS, and BSR to fall by around 2-3%.

Currently, this group is highly valued. According to data from Fiintrade, oil and gas production stocks closed the trading session on June 16th with a P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) exceeding 61 times, while the VN-Index average is nearly 13.2 times. The oil and gas equipment, services, and distribution group has a P/E of 14.8 times, higher than the market average.

Oil and gas stocks are highly valued, but FinSuccess analysts note that geopolitical tensions – a key driver for this sector – are often unpredictable and unsustainable. In particular, many oil and gas companies operate under long-term contracts with the Vietnam National Energy Corporation (PVN) or the State, meaning their profits are not as sensitive to international oil price fluctuations as the market expects. Therefore, investors need to carefully study the business models of these companies to understand whether they directly benefit from rising oil prices.

"From a cautious perspective, this is not an ideal time for new investors to enter without a clear risk management strategy," the expert emphasized.

For medium- and long-term investors, FinSuccess believes the industry outlook remains positive if prices maintain the $75-$85 per barrel range and energy projects are accelerated. Therefore, investment decisions should be based on the industry context, financial health, and business operations of each company.

Similarly, SSI Research expects oil and gas sector profits to be better this year thanks to improved exploration and production activities. The analysis team predicts an average oil price of $70-75 per barrel this year, supported by factors such as OPEC delaying production cuts, a strong recovery in the Chinese market, and faster-than-expected interest rate cuts.

HA (according to VnE)

Source: https://baohaiduong.vn/suc-nong-cua-co-phieu-dau-khi-414321.html