Real estate market may recover and develop from the second quarter of 2024

Market 2023 will remain sluggish

Accordingly, in the report sent to the Prime Minister for the online conference to evaluate the implementation results of Resolution No. 33/NQ-CP of the Government and propose solutions to remove difficulties and obstacles for the real estate market, the Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association stated that the market in 2023 will remain quiet and can only recover, develop more healthily, more transparently and more standardized from the second or third quarter of 2024.

To achieve such development, Dr. Nguyen Van Khoi believes that it depends on the progress in the legal environment; positive economic growth prospects; and the development of synchronous and modern infrastructure. In addition, the products in the real estate market will become more and more diverse, especially the housing supply will increase sharply if the Project of 1 million social housing units (NƠXH) and workers' housing is well organized and implemented.

Commenting on the development of other segments, this report shows that the apartment segment with the highest proportion of the market can only recover from mid-2024. However, the supply structure will be increasingly diverse.

In particular, the supply and absorption rate of the high-end and luxury segments will continue to increase with projects from reputable investors in major cities. The absorption rate of the mid-range and affordable segments will be lower, although the demand is still very high due to increasingly limited supply. In addition, the apartment price level will continue to increase.

Apartment price level is expected to continue to increase.

For the high-end villa and townhouse segment, it is unlikely that there will be a breakthrough in the short term. Old urban areas of major cities in the period of 2023-2025 are forecasted to have no major changes in both price and transaction volume due to increasingly limited land funds, fewer prime locations, and low profitability.

For neighboring areas/satellite towns of large cities or areas with new urban/district planning, especially around Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, it is forecasted that there will still be local increases in prices and transaction volume due to conversion from agricultural land to residential land and urban land.

For low-income housing, including social housing and affordable commercial housing, the demand for housing in this segment always exceeds the market's supply. However, on the demand side, due to the limited real affordability of low-income people, more effective credit support policies are needed to increase liquidity for this national strategic housing segment.

In addition, other segments such as tourism real estate, resorts, and industrial real estate are all expected to grow and develop in the 2023-2025 period with many influencing factors.

Many difficulties have been resolved

Also related to the vision and development of the real estate market, according to the Ministry of Construction, in recent times, ministries, branches and localities have identified removing difficulties in the real estate market and promoting the safe, healthy and sustainable development of the real estate market as urgent and important tasks that need to be focused on.

The Ministry of Construction has issued many documents to urge and guide, and the State Bank has also issued many documents to remove difficulties in credit capital to promote the development of social housing, implement the Project "Investing in the construction of at least 1 million social housing apartments for low-income people and industrial park workers" and implement the Credit Program of about 120,000 billion VND for preferential loans to develop social housing, workers' housing, and renovate and rebuild apartments. With the contribution of central and local agencies. Up to now, 41 social housing and workers' housing projects with a scale of about 19,516 units have been completed.

In recent times, credit in real estate has also increased, many banks have also restructured debt repayment terms with a total capital of more than 14,300 billion VND. Along with the previous synchronous solutions, the market has shown signs of improvement, the second quarter of 2023 has been less difficult than before and there will be more positive signals in the coming time.

Regarding activities to remove difficulties for real estate projects, the Prime Minister's Working Group (Working Group) worked directly with many localities, received, reviewed and processed 112 documents related to 174 real estate projects, with many recommendations on planning, social housing, renovation of old apartments, construction permits, project transfers, etc.

Many projects have been put on hold in recent times.

In Ho Chi Minh City, the Working Group has guided and answered about 30 petitions related to 180 housing and urban area projects; along with 37 petitions from businesses and residents. Thanks to that, Ho Chi Minh City has directed and resolved 67 projects, of which 28 projects were guided and urged by the Working Group, and 39 projects were reviewed by the locality.

In Hanoi, the Working Group has responded to and provided guidance on about 20 petitions related to 712 housing and urban area projects. In addition, 12 petitions from businesses have been requested to the Hanoi People's Committee to resolve within its authority. To date, Hanoi has directed and resolved 419 projects.

With the efforts to support the removal and provide many solutions in the past time, the real estate market will soon show signs of a slight recovery in the short term. However, due to the impact of many factors as mentioned above, 2023 is still a difficult barrier for the market to overcome. Therefore, the expectation for the re-development of the real estate market is still in the period of 2024-2025.

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/thi-truong-bat-dong-san-co-the-phuc-hoi-va-phat-trien-tu-quy-ii-2024-post259032.html