'City killer' asteroid threatens Earth's satellites

If the 'city killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 hits the Moon in seven years, the debris could pose a danger to satellites orbiting Earth.

Illustration photo Earth could witness a meteor shower if asteroid 2024 YR4 collides with the Moon in 2032 - Photo: FREEPIK

New simulations show there is now a 4.3% chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 will collide with the Moon in 2032. If that happens, debris from the nuclear-bomb-like collision could create a spectacular meteor shower, but also pose a danger to Earth's satellites.

In the new study, researchers ran computer simulations to model the possible impact of a collision with the Moon. The team estimated that up to 100 million kilograms of material could be ejected from the Moon's surface, according to LiveScience on June 26.

If 2024 YR4 hits the part of the Moon facing Earth, which has a 50/50 chance, up to 10% of the debris could be impacted by Earth's gravity in the coming days. Additionally, 2024 YR4 would also be the largest space rock to hit the Moon in "at least 5,000 years."

It is worth noting that none of the potential debris is likely to pose a danger to humans on Earth. Instead, we can enjoy a meteor shower when the debris burns up in Earth’s atmosphere. This meteor shower can last for days and can be seen by people all over the world .

The first images captured of asteroid 2024 YR4 - Photo: ATLAS

However, the amount of debris that could potentially be pulled closer to Earth would make our satellites about 1,000 times more likely to be hit by it. At the same time, the number of satellites orbiting Earth is expected to increase significantly by 2032.

If the chance of a lunar collision increases in the coming years, governments may decide to try and redirect 2024 YR4's orbit to protect satellites.

2024 YR4, classified as a potentially hazardous asteroid, is about 60m in size - large enough to wipe out a city if it were to hit Earth head-on.

The asteroid was discovered in December 2024, but has attracted attention since early 2025 when scientists predicted the possibility that it could hit Earth on December 22, 2032.

In February, scientists predicted that 2024 YR4 had a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth, enough to prompt NASA to study it further. However, subsequent analysis has shown that there is no chance that the “city killer” asteroid will hit us.

However, in April, scientists realized that 2024 YR4 still had a chance of colliding with the Moon. The chance of an impact has been slowly but steadily increasing, reaching 4.3% by early June. Experts may know the final probability of 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon in 2028, when the asteroid will once again come close to Earth.

ANH THU

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/tieu-hanh-sat-thu-thanh-pho-de-doa-cac-ve-tinh-trai-dat-20250627111939892.htm