Global pilot shortage

The world 's aircraft fleet will double over the next 20 years, putting additional pressure on pilot recruitment, according to the International Air Transport Association.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has just sounded the alarm that the world will need to recruit about 500,000 to 600,000 pilots in the next two decades as the number of aircraft is expected to double by 2044.

According to Boeing figures released in June, the global fleet will reach 48,575 aircraft in the next 20 years, up from 24,500 today. Airbus has made a similar forecast. A series of large orders from the world's leading airlines is attesting to this future.

At the Dubai Airshow that ended on November 17, Emirates caused a stir with its decision to buy 90 Boeing 777X long-haul aircraft for $52 billion, plus 15 Airbus A350s for $5.5 billion.

Earlier, in June, at the Paris Air Show, Airbus attracted attention with a "historic" order of 500 Airbus A320s worth 44 billion euros from Air India. The company also reached a basic agreement to buy 355 Airbus planes worth 53 billion euros from Turkish Airlines.

Marc Rochet, chairman of Air Caraïbes and low-cost airline French Bee, said the steady increase in the number of commercial aircraft had put “recruitment pressure” on pilots in recent times.

United Airlines pilots at Newark Liberty International Airport in Newark, New Jersey, US on May 12. Photo: Reuters

The pilot shortage first became apparent as long-haul flights began to recover from the Covid-induced downturn. That’s because flying to remote destinations requires a lot of crew. According to Alexandre Blanc, executive vice president of flight operations at Air France, it takes five crews — or 10 pilots — to fly a medium-haul plane, and 21 to 24 pilots for a long-haul plane.

The demand to stay away from Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine has added two hours to flights from Europe to Asia and Japan. “We are exceeding the 13.5-hour flight limit, forcing airlines to increase the number of pilots per crew from three to four,” added Alexandre Blanc.

Guillaume Hue, an aviation expert at Archery Strategy Consulting, said the lack of pilots was already a problem. “This is a bigger constraint on airline expansion than the lack of aircraft,” he said.

Despite these warnings, the global pilot training system has yet to adjust its processes to meet IATA’s projections. In Toulouse, France, a total of 23 students graduate each year from the National Civil Aviation School (ENAC), according to Kirsty Benet-Scott, head of recruitment and testing. She said nothing would change for the 2024 exam, which would still accept just 23 out of 1,200 pilot candidates.

Air France itself trains 150 to 200 pilots a year, according to Blanc. But that’s not enough to meet the airline’s needs. After hiring 424 pilots in 2022, Air France will hire around 500 in 2023 and maintain that pace in 2024. Those hires are linked to the post-Covid recovery and the increase in routes.

In the United States, pilots have turned the shortage into an advantage. This past summer, United Airlines and American Airlines agreed to pay raises, with United alone agreeing to raise its pay by more than 40%. But the pilot shortage will be most acute in the regions where the most planes are being bought, namely Asia and the Gulf.

Both places had seen an exodus of foreign pilots looking for work before the pandemic. “A lot of American pilots left China and the Gulf to come back to the US after the crisis,” Blanc said.

Both Rochet and Blanc predict the shortage will hit smaller airlines harder, where wages are lower and advancement opportunities are more limited. But low-cost carriers aren’t necessarily at a disadvantage. Because they operate on medium-haul routes, they allow pilots to go home at night and offer similar pay to the big carriers.

One solution to the pilot shortage may lie in technology. Airbus and Boeing are both developing systems for operating a single-pilot cockpit. In other words, a plane with just one pilot at the controls. However, this will require changes in regulations and acceptance by pilots and passengers.

Piên An ( according to Le Monde )

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