Gold hovers around 120 million VND/tael after week of strong fluctuations

World gold price drops, USD recovers

World gold prices experienced a volatile week. Gold prices reached a historic peak of nearly $3,500/ounce at the beginning of the week due to investors' concerns about rising US-China trade tensions and public criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for being "too slow" in implementing US President Donald Trump's policies.

However, the price of gold quickly "evaporated" nearly 200 USD after the news that the US and China showed signs of tariff concessions. President Trump reaffirmed that trade negotiations with China are still ongoing despite the country's denial. According to recent information from Reuters news agency, China has quietly exempted some imported goods from the US that were on the list of 125% tariffs and required businesses to report essential goods that need to be exempted from tariffs. Signs of a thaw in the trade dispute and President Trump's toned down comments about the independence of the Fed have reduced the attractiveness of safe-haven investment channels such as gold.

Despite setting a new price record, gold has corrected lower for the week after two consecutive weeks of increases. However, with the closing price last week ($3,320/ounce), gold is still up about 30% since the beginning of the year. According to experts, gold has surpassed the S&P 500 to become one of the most profitable channels to store assets since the beginning of 2023.

Contrary to the developments in the world gold market, the Dollar Index (DXY) recovered above 99.5 points after the sell-off sessions that brought the USD to a 3-year low (around 98 points). Expectations of de-escalation in trade and soft statements from the Trump administration, affirming that there is no intention to fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, helped cool the gold market and bring the USD back to recovery.

The USD/VND exchange rate also increased following the recovery of the USD. For the first time, the USD selling rate at commercial banks reached 26,200 VND/USD. Since the beginning of the year, although the DXY index has fallen sharply, the VND has still decreased compared to the USD. According to experts from S&I Ratings, in the context of low foreign exchange reserves (about 2.4 months of imports), the State Bank will find it difficult to strongly intervene in stabilizing the exchange rate. The developments of exchange rates and interest rates will need to be closely monitored in the coming time under the influence of the US Government 's actions.

Domestic gold widens gap with world

For the domestic gold market, SJC gold bars also quickly absorbed the heat when world gold prices reached a new peak but have not yet cooled down. At one point, the price of SJC gold bars listed at Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) and gold trading companies skyrocketed to VND122 million/tael (buy) and VND124 million/tael (sell) due to investors' sentiment before the unexpected developments in the international market. After that, the gold price dropped by VND5 million/tael after just one day. Currently, the selling price of gold bars is hovering around VND120 million/tael.

At the end of last week, SJC gold bars closed at VND119 million/tael (buy) and VND121 million/tael (sell), still VND7 million/tael higher than the end of last week despite the deep adjustment of world gold prices. The gap between domestic and international gold prices thus widened due to fluctuations in the world market.

The gap between domestic and world gold prices has widened recently - Source: S&I Ratings

Under the direction of the Government, the State Bank of Vietnam is assigned to preside over and coordinate with agencies to closely monitor the situation and developments in the domestic and international financial, monetary, foreign exchange, and gold markets to promptly implement solutions as prescribed to stabilize the gold market. At the same time, further strengthen inspection, examination, and strictly handle violations according to regulations, prevent profiteering, manipulation, price fixing, speculation, etc. in the gold market in accordance with the direction of the Government leaders in Official Dispatch No. 1483/VPCP-KTTH dated April 4, 2025; proactively implement information and communication measures to stabilize social psychology.

Last week, the State Bank of Vietnam, Region 2 Branch, requested that businesses and credit institutions licensed to trade in gold bars in Ho Chi Minh City take measures to manage and supervise, strictly prohibiting all forms of manipulation such as speculation, price manipulation, profiteering, and that business locations publicly and transparently post gold prices for people to understand when making transactions.

At the end of 2024, in the Resolution on questioning activities at the 8th Session of the 15th National Assembly issued in November 2024, the National Assembly directed to enhance the State's role in managing and regulating the gold market in accordance with regulations; not to let gold price fluctuations affect macroeconomic stability. By June 2025 at the latest, it is necessary to summarize, research and propose amendments to Decree No. 24/2012/ND-CP dated April 3, 2012 of the Government on the management of gold trading activities.

Next week, a series of important economic data will be released, in the context of market sentiment remaining sensitive after recent strong fluctuations. In the US, the focus of investors' attention will be the first estimate of GDP in the first quarter of 2025, with a forecast of growth of only 0.4% - the lowest level since the second quarter of 2022. This number, if correct as forecast, could indicate a weakening of consumer spending and the impact of soaring imports due to the wave of tariffs. Along with that, the PCE index in March, the Fed's favorite inflation measure, is expected to slow down significantly. The April employment report will also be released, with the number of new jobs forecast to decrease significantly compared to the previous month, showing signs of a slowdown in the labor market. In addition, the first quarter profit reporting season of US businesses will enter a peak period with financial reports of "giants" such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta.

In Europe, preliminary figures on Q1 GDP and April inflation will also play an important role in guiding the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming monetary policy. China will release its April manufacturing PMI, an important indicator to assess the real impact of new tax measures. In Australia, the Q1 CPI report may also provide clues on the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate path in the coming period. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will hold its regular monetary policy meeting, with forecasts leaning towards the possibility of keeping interest rates unchanged.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/vang-neo-quanh-moc-120-trieu-dongluong-sau-tuan-bien-dong-manh-d274074.html