Why is Trump still supported by the Republican Party despite being indicted?

Vì sao ông Trump vẫn được đảng Cộng hòa ủng hộ dù bị truy tố? - 1 — Former President Donald Trump appeared in court in New York on April 4 (Photo: AP).

Donald Trump on April 4 became the first former president in U.S. history to be criminally indicted. Given the New York grand jury’s action and other criminal charges against Trump, many might think the former president’s political fortunes are in jeopardy.

But many Republicans appear hesitant to attack the former president, instead focusing on Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who is behind the criminal investigation into Mr. Trump. And bookmakers still favor Mr. Trump as the Republican nominee in the 2024 election.

It is clear that American politics is in an unprecedented situation and the political reality may change after the indictment.

Trump’s lead in the 2024 Republican primary polls continued to consolidate and grow in the last month as an indictment emerged. Most Republicans believe that all the various investigations into Trump are politically motivated, so most Trump supporters are not overly concerned about the former president’s political future in 2024.

Recent polls from Fox News, Monmouth University and Quinnipiac University also show how Mr. Trump’s prospects in the Republican primaries have improved dramatically. Mr. Trump held double-digit leads in March, up 12 percentage points since February over his nearest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has not yet formally announced his intention to run for president in 2024.

According to a Quinnipiac poll released last week, just 18% of registered Republicans think the allegations against Trump in the Stormy Daniels hush money case are very serious or somewhat serious, while 53% of respondents believe the case is not serious at all.

While the recently announced indictment is a real event (not just a potential one) and may change some opinions, it doesn't have as much of an impact as people think.

Most Republicans (and, in fact, a majority of voters) in the same Quinnipiac poll said the prosecutor who brought the charges (Mr. Bragg) was biased. Ninety-three percent of Republicans said the prosecution was primarily politically motivated, as did 63 percent of voters overall. Nearly all Republicans (93 percent) and most voters (63 percent) thought the prosecution was primarily politically motivated.

Indeed, when it comes to any indictments, Republicans appear to have adopted a favorable view of Mr. Trump. A Marist College poll released last week found that 55% of respondents overall believe that any investigation into the former president is fair, compared with 18% of Republicans and 14% of those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020.

In addition to the criminal indictment in New York, polls also show that a majority of Republicans surveyed believe Trump is not guilty of attempting to overturn the 2020 election results. Likewise, the poll shows that most Republicans believe Trump is right in those efforts.

Similar views

However, the belief among Republicans that the investigations are politically motivated is only part of what is happening on a larger scale today.

Here’s how it looks: Republicans may think Mr. Trump is innocent, but they also believe his legal problems could hurt the former president in the 2024 general election. But polls show that, for Republican voters, they seem to prefer a candidate who shares their views on important issues over a candidate who is likely to win.

In the most recent CNN/SSRS poll, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents indicated that 41% of them would prefer a candidate who could beat President Joe Biden (if he decides to run again) over agreement on issues. Trump supporters did the same. 61% said a candidate’s ability to get along with them was more important than electability, while 39% disagreed.

This is a big change from the 2020 Democratic primaries, when 73% of Biden supporters said they preferred the candidate who was more likely to win the presidency than who they shared their views with.

In other words, Mr. Biden is a candidate who can win the election for Democratic voters, while Mr. Trump is not a candidate who can win the election for Republicans.

This may be why Mr Trump still leads, even though most Republicans believe their best chance of beating Mr Biden lies with other potential candidates, not Mr Trump.

According to a Marist poll from February, 54% of Republicans think that another candidate, not Mr. Trump, would give the party the best chance of winning back the White House in 2024.

Of course, Republican voters may not miscalculate in the upcoming election.

Even with all the potential election problems, Mr. Trump now leads Mr. Biden in many polls for the 2024 general election, compared to when the former president was completely outpaced in 2020. The same poll shows Mr. DeSantis is a few points better than Mr. Trump against his Democratic opponent, Mr. Biden, which is in line with the thinking of most Republicans.

The big question going forward is what happens if Trump is indicted? Will Republicans stick with the former president? Will electability matter more if Trump’s poll numbers fall significantly behind Biden’s?

The answer is not yet known, but according to experts, the US political environment will not seriously affect Mr. Trump in the Republican primary election next year.

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