Credit recovery expected from new economic growth drivers

Thanks to low interest rates and commercial banks launching many preferential credit policy packages, credit growth in Ho Chi Minh City in the first 5 months of this year reached a high level in recent years. Credit growth in the area is expected to continue to recover positively in the second half of the year, when Ho Chi Minh City's economy enters a new development phase with more open space.

Continued impressive recovery

According to Mr. Nguyen Duc Lenh, Deputy Director of the State Bank of Vietnam, Region 2 Branch, by the end of May 2025, the total outstanding credit balance in Ho Chi Minh City (actual data) reached more than 4.1 million billion VND, an increase of 3.89% compared to the end of 2024 and an increase of 13.64% over the same period.

Notably, credit in the city continues to maintain a stable growth momentum and is significantly higher than the previous two years. In the first 5 months of this year, credit growth reached 3.89%, while in the same period in 2023 and 2024 it only increased by 1.9%.

Illustration: Ho Chi Minh City urban area is developing dynamically and modernly along the Saigon River. (Source: Internet)

The recovery of credit in Ho Chi Minh City in the first 5 months of the year is explained by favorable factors from the monetary policy mechanism on credit and interest rates; the investment and business environment and economic growth; in which, low interest rates continue to play a supporting role and stimulate production and consumption growth.

Accordingly, outstanding loans for the wholesale and retail sectors; repair of automobiles, motorbikes, motorbikes and other motor vehicles have returned to positive growth in the past 2 months and reached over VND 580 trillion, up 0.34% compared to the end of 2024 and up 15.1% compared to the same period in 2024.

Meanwhile, lending to the manufacturing and processing industry reached VND557 trillion, up 2.37% over the end of the year and up 9.35% over the same period in 2024.

In addition, the city's banking sector is also focusing on implementing credit programs that closely follow the economic growth promotion goals of the Government and Ho Chi Minh City, such as supporting small and medium-sized enterprises in the spirit of Resolution 68 on promoting the private economy; policies to support import-export enterprises in the face of the tariff "storm"...

By the end of May 2025, the total outstanding loans to small and medium enterprises in Ho Chi Minh City reached over 1.5 million billion VND, an increase of 10.6% compared to the end of 2024 and accounting for about 38.5% of the total outstanding credit in the city.

These figures reflect businesses' confidence in the economy's gradual recovery; at the same time, they also show that banks are "getting into gear" to pump capital to support business recovery.

“Reasonable credit policies and interest rates, along with diverse credit services suitable for borrowers, have been creating favorable conditions for businesses in the area to access bank credit capital for expansion and growth. At the same time, the banking sector also focuses on solutions to support businesses with the content of grasping and promptly removing difficulties and obstacles for businesses, especially through dialogues and connecting banks and businesses,” said Mr. Nguyen Duc Lenh.

Stick to economic growth target

According to estimates by the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee, in the first half of 2025, the gross regional domestic product (GRDP) recorded very positive results, estimated to increase by 8.55% over the same period. This is also the highest increase over the same period since 2020.

Besides, total social investment capital in the area also recorded a strong recovery, increasing by 16.2% over the same period, estimated at more than 172 trillion VND.

The above data shows that Ho Chi Minh City’s economy is gradually recovering after a difficult period. The financial services sector currently accounts for about 8.25% of the city’s GRDP and contributes nearly 8% to the city’s GRDP growth. Stable and sustainable credit growth plays a key role in maintaining the pace of production, business and consumption activities of the people.

Positive signals from the first 5 months of the year are also an important basis for expecting a breakthrough in the second half of the year, with the goal of maintaining credit growth along with macroeconomic stability and controlling systemic risks.

To achieve the GDP target of over 8% this year, the State Bank set a credit growth target of about 16% and said it would be controlled and adjusted to suit reality. Accordingly, credit space in Ho Chi Minh City is still very large in the second half of the year.

To further contribute to the growth of Ho Chi Minh City, the city's banking sector said it will focus on three main pillars: promoting business support, especially private economic development; enhancing green credit development and accelerating digital transformation.

Mr. Nguyen Duc Lenh, Deputy Director of the State Bank of Vietnam, Regional Branch 2, said that new growth drivers associated with the requirements of developing a digital economy and a green economy will have a more positive impact when new policy mechanisms are issued to implement central resolutions and the formation and development of an international financial center in Ho Chi Minh City.

At the same time, changes in socio-economic development space when the city merges and expands, solutions to implement public investment... will create a clearer momentum for credit growth in the area in the second half of 2025.

In addition, the seasonal factor of tourism and services during the summer is also considered a significant short-term boost for consumer credit.

Illustration: Ho Chi Minh City has many unique tourism products to attract domestic and foreign tourists. (Source: Internet)

"The resonance from the above factors will help credit in the area continue to increase according to the State Bank's management direction," said Mr. Nguyen Duc Lenh.

From a banking perspective, Ms. Phung Thi Binh, Deputy General Director of the Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Agribank), said that currently, Agribank branches in Ho Chi Minh City are ready with abundant capital to serve lending activities.

According to Ms. Binh, the current capital source is 180 trillion VND, but the outstanding debt at the end of May was only 120 trillion VND. Therefore, the credit investment demand of Agribank in general as well as branches in the city is very large.

Currently, this bank is also implementing a number of priority credit programs, closely following the goal of promoting economic growth of the Government and Ho Chi Minh City. In particular, regarding infrastructure investment, Agribank leaders hope that Ho Chi Minh City will have specific projects for the bank to invest in or participate in joint capital.

At present, the economy is forecast to still face many difficulties and challenges, especially related to the unknowns of US tariff policies and global geopolitical instability. These factors have partly affected the production and business activities of the business community and the banking sector.

However, the merger of Ho Chi Minh City with Binh Duong and Ba Ria - Vung Tau is expected to open a new development cycle for the city with a lot of room for growth. The new Ho Chi Minh City will be a large construction site for investment and a fertile land for banks to continue to accompany and develop. Credit growth will also recover positively, supporting businesses and the economy to break through in the coming time.

According to News and People Newspaper

https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/ky-vong-tin-dung-phuc-hoi-tu-nhung-dong-luc-tang-truong-kinh-te-moi-20250619171116219.htm

Source: https://thoidai.com.vn/ky-vong-tin-dung-phuc-hoi-tu-nhung-dong-luc-tang-truong-kinh-te-moi-214333.html