Why is the UAE drawing closer to Russia and China?

TRI VAN (Compiled)

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is reportedly distancing itself from U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding the isolation of Russia and limiting ties with China.

UAE President Sheikh Mohammed (left) during a meeting with his Russian counterpart Putin last year. Photo: Kremlin.

For a long time, UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan has been considered a close ally of the US, relying on Washington for the protection of Abu Dhabi. However, the leader of this oil-rich kingdom has visited Russia twice in the past year to meet with President Vladimir Putin. Last June, the UAE was also the guest of honor at the 26th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Meanwhile, the air forces of the UAE and China will conduct joint training for the first time later this month – a significant change for a nation that has long depended on US fighter jets, weapons, and protection.

The deepening relationship between Abu Dhabi and Moscow and Beijing shows that a Middle Eastern nation once considered a key partner by the U.S. is increasingly distancing itself from Washington. U.S. officials have had little success in persuading President Sheikh Mohammed to adhere to Washington's foreign policy, particularly regarding limiting military ties with China and isolating Russia after its "special military operation" in Ukraine. Instead, the UAE has attracted investment from Russia, fueling a real estate boom in the opulent city of Dubai. Analysts suggest that the growing ties between the UAE and both U.S. rivals and other developing economies are preparation for a future world no longer dominated by Washington.

Over the past decade, UAE leaders have consistently expressed concerns about the U.S. commitment to the Middle East, which currently houses tens of thousands of U.S. troops. They fear a decline in U.S. interests in the region, a weakening of its military defense capabilities, and believe Washington has not done enough to deter threats from Iran, while simultaneously seeking greater protection from the U.S. However, in an interview with the New York Times in June, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Dana Stroul stated that the U.S. remains present in the region but is “asking our partners to do more.”

Despite its small size, roughly the same as the state of South Carolina (USA), the UAE is one of the world's leading oil exporters and possesses sovereign wealth funds totaling $1.5 trillion. The country has diversified its economy away from oil dependence and expanded its influence abroad in various ways, including through sports. Notably, Abu Dhabi acted earlier than its neighbors in pursuing a more independent foreign policy from Washington.

The UAE's bolder foreign policy began to emerge a decade ago when the Arab Spring revolutions overthrew regional dictatorships, coinciding with then-US President Barack Obama's "pivot" to Asia. Amidst the Middle East's power-restructuring uprisings, the UAE deployed troops and weapons to numerous subsequent conflicts in the region. In 2014, it conducted airstrikes in Libya without notifying the US. By 2015, after an Iranian-backed militia seized control of the Yemeni capital, Sana'a, UAE forces joined a Saudi Arabia-led military coalition to intervene, plunging Yemen into one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. In 2019, the UAE announced its withdrawal from Yemen, marking the beginning of a more conciliatory foreign policy prioritizing de-escalation, particularly with Iran.

However, the UAE's frustration with the US continues to simmer. President Sheikh Mohammed has not visited the US since 2017. In 2021, the UAE suspended negotiations with the US on the purchase of F-35 fighter jets, part of a $23 billion arms deal, instead signing several arms deals with other countries, including light attack aircraft from China. Tensions between the UAE and the US were further exacerbated by Russia's attack on Ukraine last February. The UAE, along with many other countries, declared that they would not be forced to take sides and stated they would continue open dialogue with Russia to pursue peaceful goals.

However, Dina Esfandiary, a senior advisor at the Middle East and North Africa program of the independent think tank International Crisis Group, argues that the top priority for UAE leaders remains “ensuring that the US has greater, not less, interests in the region.”

Under the administration of US President Donald Trump, the UAE signed an agreement to normalize relations with Israel in September 2020, and in May 2022, the two countries signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). This was the first FTA between Israel and an Arab nation.

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