Apple shouldn't celebrate too soon.

Unpredictable tariff policies and pressure to shift supply chains back to the US pose significant challenges for Apple.

A view in front of an Apple store in New York (USA). Photo: New York Times .

Last weekend, the tech world received positive news when the US government announced tariff exemptions for many technology products such as smartphones and computers.

However, the joy was short-lived when US President Donald Trump announced that these products would be subject to semiconductor tariffs. According to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, a separate tariff schedule is expected to be announced in the next one to two months.

According to analysts, the Trump administration's conflicting tariff moves could create instability on Wall Street, while companies like Apple are likely to be in a state of unease.

Instability persists

“The chaos of the ‘tariff spiral’ will continue to have a negative impact,” said Adam Thierer, a senior fellow at the R Street Institute, a technology-focused research firm.

Speaking to the WSJ , Thierer commented that the exemption shows the Trump administration is no longer focused on extremist policies. Previously, analysts warned that imposing tariffs on technology products would put the US at a disadvantage in the AI ​​race with China.

Investors will be watching first-quarter earnings results from major banks such as Goldman Sachs Group, Bank of America, and Citigroup, as well as industrial companies including United Airlines, to gauge the specific impact of tariffs on the economy .

Apple's iPhone 16 lineup. Photo: Bloomberg .

Some investors, including Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned of the possibility of a recession. Meanwhile, Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said recession predictions would be based on a “quick resolution” to trade uncertainty with major partners.

He emphasized that the decline in consumer confidence is a worrying sign.

"This is the biggest blow to confidence I've seen in my 10 years at the Fed, except for the Covid outbreak in March 2020. When confidence is severely shaken, it has a huge impact on the economy," Kashkari emphasized.

Dark clouds still hang over Apple.

Trump's unexpected moves over the past week have had a significant impact on the stocks of many companies, including Apple.

Despite squeezing through a narrow gap, the WSJ notes that Apple will face many new challenges, especially as the company is struggling in the smartphone market and its reputation is being damaged by AI features that haven't performed as well as expected.

Amidst a market recovery following President Trump's announcement of tariff exemptions on certain goods, Apple shares still ended last week's trading session down nearly 12% from their pre-tariff price. In comparison, the shares of the other five tech giants fell by an average of only 2%.

Apple's stock price surged during the morning trading session on April 14th (local time). However, analysts believe the situation is still unstable.

Stock price fluctuations of 5 major tech companies since Trump announced tariffs. Photo: WSJ .

Apple has consistently been singled out by Trump in the face of his goal to move iPhone assembly lines back to the US. If this were to actually happen, it would send Apple back to a point 20 years ago. Specifically, 2005 was the year the company first announced that most of its products were assembled in China.

This is the result of many years of effort by supply chain "wizard" Tim Cook, before he became Apple's CEO in 2011.

In the early 2000s, Apple's annual gross profit margin averaged just 20%, as the company primarily assembled computers in California and Ireland. By the end of the decade, that figure had reached 40% thanks to the success of the iPhone and iPod, devices that were mainly manufactured in China.

Most analysts believe that shifting the iPhone assembly supply chain back to the US would not be effective, especially given China's significant competitive advantage in manufacturing.

"In reality, major American technology companies still rely heavily on the highly efficient, deeply integrated manufacturing ecosystem in China."

"With high-volume products like smartphones, tablets, and personal computers (PCs), any rapid diversification efforts would be costly and logistically unfeasible," said analyst Francisco Jeronimo from IDC .

According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, technology products subject to tariff exemptions accounted for approximately $100 billion worth of goods imported from China to the U.S. in 2024, equivalent to 23% of total imports from the country.

Consumers buy iPhones at an Apple store. Photo: Bloomberg .

Not only with iPhones, but moving manufacturing back to the US is impractical for many industries due to high labor costs and other factors. Many products have no alternatives, and price increases could lead to consumer dissatisfaction.

According to the WSJ , leaders of technology companies generally do not publicly criticize Trump's tariffs. When announcing earnings, only a few companies, such as Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Dell Technologies, said that tariff uncertainty would affect their business operations.

White House officials said they are negotiating a trade deal and have been approached by more than 70 countries, although they did not specify the content or the negotiation process.

For Apple, uncertainty and unpredictability will continue. Despite possessing superior cash flow and profit margins, everything could still be threatened if the trade war intensifies.

Source: https://znews.vn/apple-chua-the-voi-mung-post1545835.html