Real estate at the end of 2025: Capital flow 'downstream' to the South?

Since the beginning of 2025, the real estate market has continuously recorded a "warm-up" every quarter and every month, clearly shown through the increasing supply and the improving number of transactions. This recovery momentum comes from the general growth of the economy , the unblocked supply and a series of legal relief policies, creating the premise for a new growth cycle of the market.

In the context of many other investment channels fluctuating strongly, real estate continues to prove its position as a "valuable shelter", maintaining stable profitability in the medium and long term.

In 2025, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City real estate will be 'divided into two'. (Photo: ST)

Talking to reporters of the Journalist and Public Opinion Newspaper, Mr. Le Dinh Chung, General Director of SGO Homes analyzed: Recently, the Government has continuously taken actions to remove legal obstacles for real estate projects. This will help increase the supply of real estate, customers will have more choices, and the market will be more vibrant in the last months of the year.

However, this period will hardly be "hot", because important news such as the merger of provinces and cities has been clear and reflected in the previous prices. Besides, from now until the end of the year, real estate prices in Hanoi and other provinces will be adjusted to be more suitable because they have exceeded the affordability of buyers.

Commenting clearly on each market, Mr. Chung said that from mid-2024, the Hanoi real estate market has set a new price "peak", and by early 2025, prices will continue to push up even higher.

Therefore, short- and medium-term profitable investment opportunities began to narrow. This caused Northern investors, especially those with experience and large capital, to start looking for new markets with better price growth margins.

According to Mr. Chung, the “taste” of investors in the North is often directed towards large cities, because of high liquidity. The focus is on: Hanoi, Da Nang and Ho Chi Minh City.

He revealed that after Hanoi real estate reached its “peak”, investors tended to migrate to Da Nang. This helped “break the ice”, helping the market recover from mid-2024. Thanks to that, real estate prices in Da Nang increased sharply in the land, townhouse and coastal real estate segments.

“In late 2024 and early 2025, Da Nang will see a sharp price increase, with a common increase of 50-70% in many areas,” said Mr. Chung.

By early 2025, when Da Nang real estate has reached a new "peak", investment capital continues to shift to Ho Chi Minh City. Mr. Chung said that in 2022, due to tightened legal regulations and limited supply, the real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City has been "compressed".

Up to now, when the legal system has been improved, many policies have been "untangling", many investors have "launched their products", especially many important infrastructure projects have been implemented, helping the real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City "heat up" again.

Meanwhile, Mr. Nguyen Anh Que, Chairman of G6 Group, commented: Real estate continues to be a safe investment channel in the long term, but investors need to be more cautious than before.

According to him, spending money must be based on a thorough assessment of the legality, planning, price increase potential as well as the actual exploitation ability such as for living, renting or doing business. The current market is no longer suitable for the mindset of "buy and leave it" as an asset that automatically increases in value like in previous periods.

Mr. Que recommends that if investors use financial leverage, they should only borrow at low levels and ensure that cash flow can be controlled.

In the short term, stocks, gold or digital assets can bring better profit margins. However, in the long term and in terms of safety, real estate still holds the position of number one investment channel.

“Even when successful in other channels, investors still tend to return to accumulating assets through real estate,” he emphasized.

Many market studies predict that the end of 2025 will see more positive changes than the third quarter, especially in new supply. However, growth rates and absorption levels will be influenced by many factors, creating three different scenarios: challenges, expectations and ideals.

Ideal scenario: New supply increases by 40-50%, floating interest rates remain at 8-9%, selling prices increase by 10-15%, absorption rate reaches 40-45%. This is the most optimistic scenario, opening up expectations that the market will enter a period of strong growth.

Expected scenario: New supply increases by 25-35%, floating interest rates at 9-11%, selling prices increase by 5-10% and absorption rate reaches 35-40%. This is considered the most feasible scenario, reflecting a more obvious and sustainable recovery trend.

Challenging scenario: Supply increases by only 5-15%, floating interest rates rise to 10-12%, selling prices increase slightly by 2-5% and absorption rates reach 20-30%. This is a conservative scenario, suggesting that the market may fall into a slow recovery cycle.

Similarly, the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) also proposed three scenarios for the upcoming market. The first scenario is a stable market with a slow recovery – if policies are maintained in a cautious direction, the market will grow slightly and sustainably in the next 2-3 years.

The second scenario is that the market recovers strongly when credit is loosened and legal problems are thoroughly resolved, opening up a clear shift from 2026.

The third scenario is that the market will grow hot again if there are big boosts such as credit packages or tax incentives; however, this comes with the risk of increased speculative room if not well controlled.

Source: https://congluan.vn/bat-dong-san-cuoi-nam-2025-dong-von-xuoi-vao-nam-10319919.html