Trade tensions rise, first quarter exports still grow by double digits

Vietnam exports.

At the regular press conference held by the Ministry of Industry and Trade on the afternoon of April 4 in Hanoi, Mr. Bui Huy Son, Director of the Department of Planning, Finance and Enterprise Management, informed about the import-export situation in the first quarter of the year.

According to him, the geopolitical situation in 2025 is expected to be more complicated than in 2024 because there will be not only military conflicts but also increased trade conflicts.

With the election of President Donald Trump in November 2024 and his official inauguration in January 2025, along with new policies applied to trade partners, it has had far-reaching impacts on the world economy due to tough, highly protectionist stances through increasing tariff and non-tariff barriers on imported goods.

Most recently, the Trump administration announced that it would impose a 10% import tax on all imports into the US from April 5, 2025. Then, from April 9, 2025, the country's largest trading partners will be subject to higher reciprocal taxes (Vietnam is subject to a 46% reciprocal tax, among the countries with the highest taxes along with China, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Myanmar).

Therefore, this will greatly affect many countries in the world, including Vietnam, in many different aspects, especially import and export activities of goods, currency and attracting foreign investment.

However, our country's import and export activities continued to be promoted in March 2025, with import and export turnover estimated at 75.38 billion USD, up 16.8% over the previous month and up 15.3% over March 2024.

Exports in March 2025 are estimated at 38.5 billion USD, up 23.8% over the previous month and 14.5% over the same period in 2024. This is also the month with the highest turnover so far this year, showing that export activities are accelerating again after a slower-than-expected start in the first two months of the year. Import turnover of goods in March is estimated at 36.87 billion USD, up 12.9% over the previous month and 19% over March 2024.

In the first quarter of 2025, the total import-export turnover is estimated at 202.5 billion USD, an estimated increase of 13.7% over the same period in 2024, of which the export turnover is estimated at 102.8 billion USD, an estimated increase of 10.6% over the same period last year.

On the other hand, import turnover is estimated at 99.68 billion USD, an estimated increase of 17% over the same period last year and higher than the growth of export turnover, showing that domestic production activities are flourishing, with the demand for raw materials, components, and machinery for production and export increasing sharply.

“Thus, the trade balance in the first 3 months of 2025 will continue to maintain a surplus, with an estimated trade surplus of 3.15 billion USD,” Mr. Son informed.

Mr. Bui Huy Son informed at a press conference organized by the Ministry of Industry and Trade on the afternoon of April 4. (Photo: Duc Duy/Vietnam+)

Also according to the representative of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the first quarter of 2025, the export of the domestic economic sector is estimated to reach 29 billion USD, an estimated increase of 15% over the same period last year, higher than the 9% increase of the FDI enterprise sector (estimated at 73.8 billion USD), showing that the internal strength of the domestic enterprise sector is gradually improving.

Regarding the export market structure, in the first quarter of 2025, Vietnam's export turnover to most key export markets is expected to increase (except for the Chinese market).

Mr. Bui Huy Son assessed that Vietnam's goods exports are still maintaining a positive trend with growth each month higher than the previous month. However, the estimated growth rate of 10.6% in the first quarter of 2025 is still lower than the growth target of 12% set for the whole year of 2025 but higher than the scenario of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, which corresponds to economic growth of 8% or more (the scenario for the first quarter of 2025 is 7.9% increase)./.

According to Vietnam+

Source: https://baothanhhoa.vn/cang-thang-thuong-mai-gia-tang-xuat-khau-quy-1-van-tang-truong-2-con-so-244559.htm