The MXV-Index fell to its lowest level in nearly a month.

Cocoa prices have fallen below the $6,000/ton mark.

At the close of trading on the first day of the week, the industrial raw materials group saw widespread declines across most key commodities. In particular, cocoa prices fell by more than 6.4% to $5,876 per ton.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), cocoa prices fell sharply yesterday mainly due to renewed concerns about supply while demand still shows no signs of improvement.

In the week ending December 14th, cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast reached 91,000 tonnes, up from 85,000 tonnes the previous week and exceeding 75,000 tonnes for the same period last year. This development somewhat eased earlier concerns about difficulties with the main harvest in West Africa, especially after a week that saw a 15,000-tonne drop in supply.

Cumulatively from the beginning of the 2025-2026 crop year, the total volume of goods arriving at ports reached 894,000 tons, close to the 895,000 tons of the same period last year, but still lower than the 5-year average of 991,000 tons. Typically, cargo volumes tend to fluctuate significantly during this period and usually peak in early November, therefore weather conditions also play an equally important role.

According to World Weather Inc., rainfall in Ivory Coast and Ghana is currently above the multi-year average, making drying difficult and slowing down the harvest. However, the increased rain is considered a factor supporting productivity in the later stages of the season. The weather forecast predicts drier conditions from the end of this week and into next week, creating more favorable conditions for harvesting.

Besides supply, weakening global demand remains a key factor putting long-term downward pressure on cocoa prices. On October 30, Hershey's CEO described Halloween sales – which account for 18% of annual candy sales in the US – as "disappointing." Circana data showed North American retail chocolate sales volume fell more than 21% in the 13 weeks ending September 7 compared to the same period.

Third-quarter cocoa grinding figures also reflect a bleak demand picture. The Asian Cocoa Association reported a 17% drop in grinding output to 183,413 tonnes – the lowest in nine years – while in Europe, grinding output fell 4.8% to 337,353 tonnes – the lowest in ten years. In North America, although reports showed a 3.2% increase in grinding output to 112,784 tonnes, this increase was mainly due to the addition of new reporting units and does not reflect a genuine improvement in demand.

Fearing tariffs, the COMEX currency reversed its upward trend.

Conversely, yesterday's metal group saw mixed movements among its components. The COMEX copper coin attracted significant market attention, quickly recovering from its sharp decline at the end of last week. Specifically, at the close of yesterday's trading session, the price of COMEX copper rose nearly 1% to $11,931 per ton.

Yesterday's session saw a weakening of the US dollar, with the US dollar index falling 0.11% to 98.29 points, making many dollar-denominated commodities like copper more attractive to international investors, thereby stimulating buying activity during the session.

In addition, a key driver supporting the recovery in copper prices comes from concerns about the risk of Washington imposing import tariffs on refined copper next year. Previously, according to a White House announcement in July, by June 30, 2026, the US Commerce Secretary will complete a report on domestic refining capacity and the refined copper market to submit to the President for consideration of the possibility of imposing import tariffs on this commodity.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) says that imported refined copper currently meets about 45% of domestic demand in the U.S., and imposing tariffs on it raises concerns that it could cause localized supply shortages in the country.

In response to this risk, the physical market has reacted strongly, with a large influx of copper into the US. Since the beginning of the year, copper inventories at LME (UK) depository facilities have fallen sharply by nearly 40%, to only about 166,000 tons. Meanwhile, COMEX (US) depository facilities continue to see large amounts of copper flowing in to anticipate tariff risks, soaring from around 84,700 tons at the beginning of the year to over 410,000 tons.

However, the recovery in copper prices was somewhat hampered by newly released economic data from China, which showed a less positive picture of consumption in the world's largest copper consumer market.
Specifically, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country's industrial output in November increased by only 4.8% year-on-year, slowing from 4.9% in October and marking the slowest growth since August 2024. During the same period, retail sales increased by only 1.3% year-on-year, the lowest level in three years.

These signals reflect a slowdown in both production and consumption, thereby weakening the short-term outlook for copper demand and limiting the metal's upside potential.

Returning to the domestic market, the recent recovery in copper prices has made import costs more expensive, thereby contributing to a decrease in import demand. According to preliminary data from the Vietnam Customs Department, copper imports in November were only around 38,000 tons, a decrease of more than 14% compared to October.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/chi-so-mxvindex-xuong-muc-thap-nhat-trong-vong-gan-mot-thang-20251216095230054.htm