Ukraine War 7/1: Missiles swarm into Crimea, Russian air defense trapped?

T-72 tank of the Ukrainian Army (Illustration photo: Skynews).

Russia attacks Liman

According to Rybar channel, the Russian offensive continues in the direction of Liman with the main goal of eliminating the enemy bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River.

Moscow units are methodically breaking through Kiev defenses in the settlements of Terny and Yampolovka. Footage released by Ukraine shows the Russian advance north of the Shirakiy Ravine.

To reach the outskirts of the villages, Russia still had to advance about 3km with many forest belts. However, Ukraine still resisted, launching counterattacks and attacks on the advancing Russian assault groups.

If Terny and Yampolovka fall, the situation for Ukrainian forces in the Zhuravka and Nevskoe gullies will become significantly more dangerous. In addition, some Russian media reported certain successes of the Russian army in the Serebryansky forest area, but this information has not yet been confirmed by objective control methods.

Map of the Ukrainian war in the Liman region as of January 6. Russia controls the brown area and the red arrows show the direction of their attack, the blue arrows are the direction of Ukraine's counterattack (Photo: Rybar).

Meanwhile, Geroman channel reported that Russian forces have advanced another 2km on the Liman front after a strong attack on the Svatovo - Kremennaya axis.

"The enemy is attacking in the direction of Ternov and Novosadovoy. They are successful. Progress is being made on a front 6.5 km wide and up to 2 km deep," Ukrainian military analysts admitted.

Active operations also continue in Kruglaya and the north of the region. Russian troops, supported by armored vehicles, are trying to improve the tactical situation in the Ternov direction. Here, "the Russians have succeeded in an area up to 1.25 km wide and 1.95 km deep," other pro-Kiev sources admit.

On the afternoon of January 6, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that in the Krasnolimansky direction, enemy forces and equipment concentrated in the settlement suffered losses.

Map of the Ukrainian war on the Liman front as of January 6. Russia controls the brown area, the arrows show the direction of their attack, and the dark brown areas are where Moscow's forces have recently gained control (Photo: RVvoenkory).

Kupyansk starts to heat up

Rybar channel reported that in Kupyansk, fierce fighting is taking place in the Ivanovka area and on the approaches to Sinkovka, where, according to some reports, the Russian army has significantly improved its positions.

In Kupyansk, despite Western analysts' assumptions about an imminent attack on the city, relative calm prevails. Ammunition depots are being built here and reinforcement work is underway at the old Sobolevka airfield.

Fierce fighting in Bakhmut - Chasvo Yar and Avdiivka

Rybar channel reports that in Soledar, the main battles are taking place in the Khromovo area. Russian armed forces, with the support of artillery, continue to advance in this area. In addition, Russian troops have gained a foothold north of the village of Bogdanovka. At the same time, on the southern slope of Bakhmut, battles are taking place northwest of Kleshchiivka and Andriivka.

In the direction of Donetsk , fierce battles are still taking place in the Avdiivka area, especially on the two flanks under conditions of high intensity shelling. Over the past two days, Russian troops have advanced and consolidated their positions on the northern flank at Petrovskoe and along the forest redoubts towards Novobakhmutovka. There are also battles on the southwestern part of the front in the Vodyanoe area.

In addition, according to the Suriyakmaps channel, north of Avdivka, the Russian army advanced 800m south of Vesele. On the other hand, adjustments were made by Russia on the Ocheretyne axis.

West of Donetsk city, Russian troops expanded the buffer zone around Marinka by advancing northwest. The objective of Russian forces was to capture the hill (White Square) to fully defend Marinka from any enemy counterattack, recapture it, and monitor the movements of Kiev forces around Heorhiivka and Krasnogorivka.

Map of the Ukrainian war in Marinka as of January 6. Russia controls the brown area, the orange arrows show the direction of their attack, and the boxes surrounded by orange dashed lines are where Moscow forces have recently taken control (Photo: Suriyakmaps).

No major changes in Orekhov and Kherson

Rybar channel reported that in the Orekhov area, the front line has not changed. The upcoming battles are near Rabotino, where the Russian army is conducting offensive operations and capturing a number of enemy strongholds.

The situation in Kherson has not changed. Regular fighting continues in Krynki and there are also unconfirmed reports of Russian advances. Crossing the left bank of the Dnieper remains a key issue for Ukraine, with some units suffering heavy losses trying to retreat from the “fire coordinates”.

At the same time, there is information about the possible plans of the Ukrainian command to carry out a large transfer of forces to the left bank in order to maintain the existing control. However, this option should not be ruled out, especially given their determination to cross the river despite the losses.

Missiles swarm into Crimea, Russian air defense trapped?

Attacks on Crimea continued over the past two days. On January 5, at around 12:20-12:30, Ukraine launched a Neptune anti-ship missile from the outskirts of Odessa, but was intercepted by a patrolling Russian MiG-31 fighter. In addition, a Ukrainian missile was shot down 80km northwest of Cape Tarkhankut.

The latest attack occurred on the night of January 5-6. Four Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles were fired from two Su-24M bombers at Saki airfield. The air force at the base was evacuated on alert, but the target was not the Russian aircraft. The enemy managed to attack the administrative building, but at the time of the alert it was empty, which allowed Russia to avoid losses.

Another interesting thing about this attack is the Ukrainian tactics. All day yesterday, Ukrainian planes were taking off and landing.

Periodically, ADM-160 MALD decoys launched from Ukrainian MiG-29s and Su-27s proved to be very dangerous, as they were displayed as real missiles, allowing to deceive Russian air defense systems and determine their location and reaction time.

At the time of one of these launches, Ukraine attempted to carry out a real attack with Neptune on the tip of Tarkhankut or Yevpatoria, but the missile was shot down by the MiG-31.

And in the evening, before the Storm Shadow cruise missiles hit, five Beaver-type UAVs were launched to Crimea from Koblevo. They flew along the western coast of Crimea and hovered near Novofedorovka, where they were shot down.

Hours later, two Ukrainian Su-24M bombers attacked Saki, which was actively monitored by NATO UAVs and satellites for target designation.

But the essence of Kiev's actions is clear: after the weakening of the Black Sea Fleet, the main task is to suppress Russian air defense in Crimea, and this can be done by disrupting the combat control capabilities of air defense and aerospace units. That is why Kiev's main focus is on command posts, which should be taken into account in the next Ukrainian offensive.

Notably, on the evening of January 6, Ukraine attempted to attack Crimea with six Neptune anti-ship missiles at the same time. The raid was repelled, but the possibility of new attacks in the near future cannot be ruled out.

Map depicting Ukraine's missile attack on Crimea on the night of January 5 and early morning of January 6. Russia controls the brown area, the blue arrows show the flight paths of Ukrainian missiles (Photo: Rybar).

ISW: Ukrainian missiles and UAVs overcome Russian air defenses to attack Crimea

Ukrainian missiles and UAVs are "penetrating Russian air defense systems" and hitting intended targets in Crimea, the Institute for the Study of War ( ISW ) reported.

According to ISW, the Ukrainian army is conducting a multi-day campaign to attack Russian military targets in Crimea and has successfully destroyed a number of targets on the peninsula.

The report recalls that Russian sources claim that on the night of January 5-6, Ukrainian forces attacked an administrative building at Saki airport with four Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

The Russian Defense Ministry said Russian forces destroyed five enemy UAVs and four missiles over the Black Sea and Crimea on the night of January 5-6 and six Ukrainian Neptune missiles over the northwestern Black Sea on January 6.

Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Nikolai Oleshchuk thanked the pilots for successfully striking targets at Saki airport, but did not specify whether he was talking about the attacks on January 4, 5 or 6.

In addition, Ukrainian officials and sources said Ukrainian forces also attacked an air defense radar system and communications center in Yevpatoriya, which coordinates Russian air defense operations in Crimea, ammunition depots near Pervomaisky, and a Russian command post near Sevastopol, starting on January 4.

ISW concluded that Ukrainian and Russian reports indicate that Ukrainian missiles and UAVs are penetrating Russian air defenses in Crimea and have successfully attacked a number of intended targets.

A Russian military official with ties to the Kremlin said Ukrainian forces were carrying out attacks aimed at weakening Russia's air defenses over Crimea.

ISW has yet to assess the purpose of Ukraine's current campaign to attack Russian rear areas in Crimea.

Satellite images confirm attack on Russian ammunition depot in Crimea

Kyiv Independent reported that on January 6, the Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) released satellite images confirming that an attack on January 4 damaged ammunition depots in Crimea.

Earlier, on January 5, the Ukrainian military's Strategic Communications Directorate said that its forces had attacked Russian ammunition depots in northern Crimea the previous day.

Satellite imagery shared by HUR appears to show damage to three buildings and two other targets that HUR says are Russian military radar systems.

The news is one of a series of recent reports of successful attacks on Russian positions on the peninsula, with Ukraine aiming to disrupt Russian military logistics and weaken its southern defenses.

Satellite images show damage to a Russian ammunition depot in Crimea (inset right) after a Ukrainian attack on January 4 (Photo: Ukrainian Defense Intelligence).

Russia raided Ukrainian positions on the left bank of the Kherson region 18 times

According to a summary report of the Ukrainian General Staff on Saturday, January 6, the Russian army carried out 18 unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian positions on the left bank of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region, and another 14 enemy attacks were repelled in Avdiivka .

The report reads: "The enemy has not given up the intention of driving our units away from the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper River. During the day, they conducted 18 unsuccessful attacks on our positions, thanks to which Ukraine continued to hold its position and caused significant losses to the enemy."

The Ukrainian General Staff added that 27 clashes occurred during the day, with Russia launching a total of eight missiles and conducting 55 air strikes, and carrying out 23 attacks with multiple launch rocket artillery.

Ukraine claims to have repelled most of the enemy's attacks on Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka and Zaporizhia.

Denmark has not officially announced a delay in delivering F-16s.

Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yury Ignat noted that there were no official reports from Denmark about the delay in the delivery of F-16 fighters to Ukraine and that Kiev expected to receive them in the spring, Ukrainska Pravda reported.

The above information was shared by Mr. Ignat when asked to comment on information in the Danish publication Berlingske saying that the country's Ministry of Defense has postponed the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Kiev for 6 months.

Copenhagen was supposed to deliver the first six planes before the new year 2024, but that is now expected to be pushed back to the second quarter, the ministry said.

Russian MiG-31K fighter carrying Kinzhal hypersonic missile (Photo: Russian Ministry of Defense).

US faces missile shortage for Ukraine's Patriot system

The New York Times reported on January 6 that White House and Pentagon officials warned that the United States would soon be unable to provide adequate interceptor missiles for Ukraine's Patriot air defense system.

The Patriot system has played a vital role in Ukraine’s air defenses in repelling Russian airstrikes across the country. According to the New York Times , a Patriot interceptor missile costs between $2 million and $4 million.

Of Ukraine’s air defense weapons, only the Patriot is designed to counter ballistic missiles. Since entering the war in Ukraine, these systems have reportedly reshaped the battle for the skies.

Ukraine shot down a record number – all 10 out of 10 – of the air-launched Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles that Russia launched at the country on January 2.

The Ukrainian Air Force reported on December 31 that it had shot down 15 Kinzhal missiles from May 4 until the end of 2023.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/chien-su-ukraine-71-ten-lua-o-at-ap-vao-crimea-phong-khong-nga-bi-bay-20240107101057194.htm